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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#26
Posted: 4/17/2013 3:38:20 PM

Degen, I noticed on the spreadsheet that there might be an error on the 6 hits System. Take SD today for example. When I enter 4 into the hits field they show as a play, enter 6 and it's a no play. The system should be 6 or less, not less than 6. So that would be in your calculations in column K.

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#27
Posted: 4/17/2013 4:07:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Degen, I noticed on the spreadsheet that there might be an error on the 6 hits System. Take SD today for example. When I enter 4 into the hits field they show as a play, enter 6 and it's a no play. The system should be 6 or less, not less than 6. So that would be in your calculations in column K.

Another good catch DanRules.....i'm glad you guys are catching my mistakes - after awhile all the formulas just blend together - so it's great to have antoher set of eyes checking my work.

I also added some highlighting - so if you do enter the # of hits it highlights in yellow - so you don't forget to clear it out the next day.

Uploaded with corrections - same link.

DG

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#28
Posted: 4/17/2013 4:54:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Another good catch DanRules.....i'm glad you guys are catching my mistakes - after awhile all the formulas just blend together - so it's great to have antoher set of eyes checking my work.

I also added some highlighting - so if you do enter the # of hits it highlights in yellow - so you don't forget to clear it out the next day.

Uploaded with corrections - same link.

DG

 I checked out the formulas you used and it gave me a headache. Very impressive!

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#29
Posted: 4/18/2013 1:57:55 AM

Results from Wed 4/17:

3-4 with 1 rain out

+.28 units (profit is profit)

Balt 101 Loss

Pitts 100 WIN

ChiSox 123 WIN

Philly 126 Loss

Miami 140 Loss

SF 106 Loss

Minn 113 rained out

SD 205 WIN

YTD 8-6

+4.94 units

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#30
Posted: 4/18/2013 10:43:17 AM
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#31
Posted: 4/18/2013 12:25:24 PM

Thursday 4/18 system plays:

Note: Degen - I think the ChiSox should qualify for the 6 hits system as they won yesterday allowing 6 hits and are dogs today entering last game of series. Not showing under this but they are under the MLB dog so still a play.

Milw 109

Balt 116

Pitt 106

ChiSox 100

Tex/Cubs Under 10.5 100

Det/Sea Under 6.5 -110

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#32
Posted: 4/18/2013 2:10:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Thursday 4/18 system plays:

Note: Degen - I think the ChiSox should qualify for the 6 hits system as they won yesterday allowing 6 hits and are dogs today entering last game of series. Not showing under this but they are under the MLB dog so still a play.

Milw 109

Balt 116

Pitt 106

ChiSox 100

Tex/Cubs Under 10.5 100

Det/Sea Under 6.5 -110

DanRules - another great catch! - I need you to test all my spreadsheets to catch my mistakes - I was not taking into account 4 game series.  I fixed it and uploaded a new version (V5) - you can use the same link.

On a side note - I didn't not consider 2 game series in divisional underdogs - they will be filtered out - unless you thinl they should qualify as well - it does not state it in the system rules - so not sure what to do on that one.

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#33
Posted: 4/18/2013 3:03:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

DanRules - another great catch! - I need you to test all my spreadsheets to catch my mistakes - I was not taking into account 4 game series.  I fixed it and uploaded a new version (V5) - you can use the same link.

On a side note - I didn't not consider 2 game series in divisional underdogs - they will be filtered out - unless you thinl they should qualify as well - it does not state it in the system rules - so not sure what to do on that one.

I think you should include 2 and 4 game series in the divisional underdogs. A qualified play is a qualified play and the rules do not stipulate series length or just last game of series.

Also, just for tracking purposes, I'm recording the results from each individual system. Some teams qualify for 2 or more systems so I'm tracking these under each system to see if a particular system is stronger or weaker than others. I'll update periodically on these running totals, but my posted totals are for all systems combined.  

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#34
Posted: 4/18/2013 3:37:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I think you should include 2 and 4 game series in the divisional underdogs. A qualified play is a qualified play and the rules do not stipulate series length or just last game of series.

Also, just for tracking purposes, I'm recording the results from each individual system. Some teams qualify for 2 or more systems so I'm tracking these under each system to see if a particular system is stronger or weaker than others. I'll update periodically on these running totals, but my posted totals are for all systems combined.  

Ok - no problem - added 2 game series to divisional underdog system - uploaded V5 with the update - same link

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#35
Posted: 4/18/2013 4:26:57 PM
What book are you using for lines? I noticed when I updated the latest fix, that the ChiSox went from even to -103. The Vegas lines are all over the map from -105 to +105 at the Red Rock where I bet. Since they qualified at the time I posted and would have placed my bets, I'm staying with it as even.
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#36
Posted: 4/18/2013 10:51:58 PM

results for Thursday 4/18:

4-2, +2.25 units

YTD  12-8, +7.19 units

Milw 109 WIN

Balt 116 WIN

Pitt 106 Loss

ChiSox 100 Loss

Tex/Cubs Under 10.5 100 WIN

Det/Sea Under 6.5 -110 WIN

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#37
Posted: 4/19/2013 2:12:17 PM
Geez...posted on wrong thread...
Dan, now that I'm ON the correct thread, can you explain the 6 hit rule and what to adjust etc, on the spreadsheet...not the system.

I can sub for ya if need be.
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#38
Posted: 4/19/2013 2:24:34 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Danrules24:

What book are you using for lines? I noticed when I updated the latest fix, that the ChiSox went from even to -103. The Vegas lines are all over the map from -105 to +105 at the Red Rock where I bet. Since they qualified at the time I posted and would have placed my bets, I'm staying with it as even.

I am pulling the odds from Vegas Insider.  If you take a look at the following links

http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/offshore/

http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/las-vegas/

I am currently using the offshore odds link - you will notice that I can use Pinnacle, 5Dimes, etc - basically whatever you want.  I "thought" I was using Pinnacle - but just realized I was using "Sportbook"

Let me know what Odds you want me to use and I'll fix it.  Oh and if it's helpful - I can add a column next to odds and populate "opening" odds from Las Vegas Insider - the opening odds are on the 2nd link - so I will have to add another tab and import that link too - but not hard to do if you need it.

DG

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#39
Posted: 4/19/2013 2:29:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Geez...posted on wrong thread...
Dan, now that I'm ON the correct thread, can you explain the 6 hit rule and what to adjust etc, on the spreadsheet...not the system.

I can sub for ya if need be.

Hey Buckeye, on the spreadsheet you need to enter the number of a hits allowed by a winning team the previous game that are undogs the current day. Also, only do this for the last game of a series. Yesterday we had 2 games that fit this - ChiSox and Milw. Both won on Wednesday, allowed 6 hits or less and were dogs on Thurs, the last game of the series.

I should be good to track this until late May. I need to go out of town for my daughter's college graduation. Appreciate the backup help.

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#40
Posted: 4/19/2013 2:38:10 PM

Friday 4/19 system plays:

Oak 100

Sea 180

Cubs 104

AZ 108

SD 185

KC/Bos Under 8 Even

Wash/NYM Under 6.5 -110

Interesting that out of the 5 dog systems we still haven't had a game under the low scoring system. Each of the other 4 are all showing a profit.

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#41
Posted: 4/19/2013 3:56:04 PM

if we use Pinnacle odds - NYY ends up being a play.  Not sure how we handle line movement or odds at different books.  Do you think we should take opening odds into consideration.

Then we start factoring in line movement.  Maybe we avoid plays with a lot of line movement or if they flip from fav to dogs or dogs to fav?

Not sure...thoughts DanRules....

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#42
Posted: 4/19/2013 4:03:37 PM

Yep let's add the NYY as a play at 105.

 

Not sure how to handle line movement. I guess I'll post when I'm doing my plays for the day and use the lines at that time. I can try and check again about 30 minutes prior to gametime, but I won't always be able to do that. I think if a game is close odds wise, people just need to make their own call. As far as official system plays, I'll count what I would have played at the time I post then add any others we catch before gametime but not remove any that fall out. Afterall, if we can get + odds or even on a team that turns into a fave, I'm good with that.

Open to ideas though. I don't want to make this a nightmare to check. The article said pros use this system and spend a short amount of time each day. lol 

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#43
Posted: 4/19/2013 7:47:10 PM
I agree we shouldn't over think it - and I want to make it easier for you. Btw do you have a preference of what books odds you want to see on the spreadsheet? 5dimes, pinnacle, Vegas odds?
Posted using a mobile device.
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#44
Posted: 4/19/2013 7:57:20 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

I agree we shouldn't over think it - and I want to make it easier for you. Btw do you have a preference of what books odds you want to see on the spreadsheet? 5dimes, pinnacle, Vegas odds?

Good question. Do most people on here bet offshore? I'm in Vegas so I just bet here. I have only noticed a slight difference in lines but I don't think we are missing any Vegas plays with the lines you have. Just keep it and I'll use the lines from the spreadsheet, not that big a deal.

Was thinking of following the plays today but didn't want to jinx the system.

 

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#45
Posted: 4/20/2013 1:31:29 AM

Friday results:

1-6 with 1 rain out, -5.05 units

YTD 13-14, +2.14 units

NYY 105 WIN

Oak 100 Loss

Sea 180 Loss

Cubs 104 Loss

AZ 108 Loss

SD 185 Loss

KC/Bos Under 8 Even Rain

Wash/NYM Under 6.5 -110 Loss

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#46
Posted: 4/20/2013 12:50:49 PM

Saturday 4/20 System plays

Mets 134

Tor 102

Minn 145

STL 123

Pitt 127

Oak 124

SD 145

KC/Bos Under 8 -110

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#47
Posted: 4/20/2013 11:30:30 PM

Saturday 4/20 results:

4-4, +.95 units

YTD 17-18, +3.09

Mets 134 Loss

Tor 102 Loss

Minn 145 WIN

STL 123 WIN

Pitt 127 WIN

Oak 124 Loss

SD 145 Loss

KC/Bos Under 8 -110 WIN

Still no games under the Low Scoring Dog system (should have at least one tomorrow) and the one that has killed us so far is the Division Dogs. The other 3 all have winning records. I happen to like the 2 systems from Tony Stoffo (MLB dog and Top 20 SP under). May have to do some back testing, but not sure how to account for filtering out any top 20 SP at any givien time.

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#48
Posted: 4/21/2013 9:58:06 AM
Before I screw up my spreadsheet with the 6 hit rule, do I change the 6 hit column in "Summary...Col L (#hits Alw LG)" or "All Games Systems...Col AI (Underdogs <6hits...False to True)?  So far, there are 9 games that had winners that allowed 6 hits or less, I was going to input them all as odds may change and a favorite becomes a dog, and possibly a play.
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#49
Posted: 4/21/2013 10:10:44 AM
nmd...read further up.....However, I put 4 in the Pitt field as that's what Atlanta got, and currently Pitt is a dog, so shouldn't Pitt come up as a play in Column K?
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#50
Posted: 4/21/2013 10:28:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

 the 6 hit column in "Summary...Col L (#hits Alw LG)" 
 didn't work .....Pitt didn't come up when when I changed it to 4  [Quote: Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn]"All Games Systems...Col AI (Underdogs <6hits...False to True)?   did work when I changed Pitt's from false to true...Pitts came up on Summary...Underdogs <= 6 Hits (Col K)
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