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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?
DegenGamble send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/15/2013 5:24:25 PM

Below is the spreadsheet for some MLB underdog systems - As I have have mentioned in numerous threads - I am HORRIBLE at tacking systems and maintaining threads....it's just not my thing (sorry)

I was wondering if someone wanted to volunteer to track each system using the spreadsheet of course to see if they actually provide a positive ROI.  I tried to make it as easy as possible - press a button and post the plays each day.

Hope someone steps up to the plate

 

MLB Underdog Systems

This spreadsheet automates the MLB underdog systems listed on the the following websites:

http://www.betfirms.com/baseball-betting-systems-underdogs/

http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/571442/

Now the Vegas Insider link just goes into more detail of the last system of the Bet Firms Link

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5dydT9Oe6JbRXhKaVRGT2lkSXc/edit?usp=sharing

It takes a good 3-5 minutes to pull all the data needed but it shows what teams it's downloading in the lower left hand corner of excel - so just grab a cup of coffee in the mean time.  You only need to run it once each morning.  In addition, for the <6 hits system - you just have to manually check if the team allowed less than 6 hits in their privious game and enter it in the field.  I didn't automate it because I didn't want to slow it down any more for data that would only be used IF the team happens to be a play for that system.

Features:

·         All plays and data needed for the day are updated upon clicking the “Update” button

·         You can download from the link above:

*Just a reminder that the <6 hits system needs some manual inputs

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#2
Posted: 4/15/2013 7:34:22 PM

Why wouldn't the White sox qualify today under the Low Scoring Dog Off win system? They are a dog today and won yesterday scoring 3 runs.

 

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#3
Posted: 4/16/2013 10:10:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Why wouldn't the White sox qualify today under the Low Scoring Dog Off win system? They are a dog today and won yesterday scoring 3 runs.

 

I interpret the system as they need to win as a DOG in the last game - I believe they were a favorite in that game with CLE (-119)

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#4
Posted: 4/16/2013 1:27:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

I interpret the system as they need to win as a DOG in the last game - I believe they were a favorite in that game with CLE (-119)

Ok that makes sense then.

Not a good start for the system as it went 0-3 yesterday (Pitt, Phil, CWS.

 

YTD record: 0-3

YTD - 3 units

April 16 plays:

SD +154

Philly +137

Pitt +132

ChiSox +143

Also, just to clarify, the 6 hits system is for the last game of a series only?

 

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#5
Posted: 4/16/2013 1:44:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Ok that makes sense then.

Not a good start for the system as it went 0-3 yesterday (Pitt, Phil, CWS.

 

YTD record: 0-3

YTD - 3 units

April 16 plays:

SD +154

Philly +137

Pitt +132

ChiSox +143

Also, just to clarify, the 6 hits system is for the last game of a series only?

 

Well according to the spreadsheet yesterday - PIT was the only play if I was not mistaken.  It was a Loss - so I think it's 0-1 if you start tracking from yesterday.

Not sure when the start date should be for these systems - but might as well start tracking now.

Also I think you missed MIA as a play for 4/16 (according to the spreadsheet / rules) - I hate the play but for tracking purposes it's a play according to the rules.

Lastly - yes the 6 hits system is for the last game of a series only - and they need to WIN allowing less than 6 hits in previous game.

Maybe someone who has crazy SQDL skills can back test these - maybe figure out some filters - like don't play a <.500 team, etc or if the dog won the first game of the series, etc. (maybe it could be a good chase system - instead of flat betting)

I don't know - I stink at handicapping - i'm only good at excel

 

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#6
Posted: 4/16/2013 1:47:13 PM

I'm not sure if I can track this. I don't see why Minnesota wouldn't qualify today under the MLB Underdog system. They are a dog of less than 150, haven't lost 3 in a row, opponent LAA hasn't won 3 in a row, LAA SP is not in top 20.  

Same with Seattle vs Detroit and AZ vs NYY.

Not sure what I'm missing with these.

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#7
Posted: 4/16/2013 1:50:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Well according to the spreadsheet yesterday - PIT was the only play if I was not mistaken.  It was a Loss - so I think it's 0-1 if you start tracking from yesterday.

Not sure when the start date should be for these systems - but might as well start tracking now.

Also I think you missed MIA as a play for 4/16 (according to the spreadsheet / rules) - I hate the play but for tracking purposes it's a play according to the rules.

Lastly - yes the 6 hits system is for the last game of a series only - and they need to WIN allowing less than 6 hits in previous game.

Maybe someone who has crazy SQDL skills can back test these - maybe figure out some filters - like don't play a <.500 team, etc or if the dog won the first game of the series, etc. (maybe it could be a good chase system - instead of flat betting)

I don't know - I stink at handicapping - i'm only good at excel

 

Yes you are right, Pitt was the only play according to the spreadsheet. I don't see Mia as a play today on the sheet. I ran the update and Miami is not there. Under which system do you think Miami is a play?

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#8
Posted: 4/16/2013 2:13:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Yes you are right, Pitt was the only play according to the spreadsheet. I don't see Mia as a play today on the sheet. I ran the update and Miami is not there. Under which system do you think Miami is a play?

MLB Underdog System

Play a dog under +150 (MIA is +145) that has not lost 3 in a row and is not playing an opp (WAS) that has not won 3 in a row.  Lastly, and is not facing a top 20 pitcher according to Sagarin.  Dan Haren is ranked 108

By the way - I just found a bug in the spreadsheet - I fixed it and have uploaded it to the link - so download it again so you have the lates version with the fix

 

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#9
Posted: 4/16/2013 2:21:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

MLB Underdog System

Play a dog under +150 (MIA is +145) that has not lost 3 in a row and is not playing an opp (WAS) that has not won 3 in a row.  Lastly, and is not facing a top 20 pitcher according to Sagarin.  Dan Haren is ranked 108

By the way - I just found a bug in the spreadsheet - I fixed it and have uploaded it to the link - so download it again so you have the lates version with the fix

 

When i ran the update the firsttime Miami showed as +151, so that's why they didn't show as a play. I'll download the new one and run it again. Thanks!!

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#10
Posted: 4/16/2013 2:41:11 PM

Why wouldn't the Giants, Twins & Diamondbacks fit the mlb dog system for 4/16?

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#11
Posted: 4/16/2013 2:55:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Scoblen:

Why wouldn't the Giants, Twins & Diamondbacks fit the mlb dog system for 4/16?

And Seattle.

Degen??

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#12
Posted: 4/16/2013 3:52:28 PM
Looked at it a bit further and I think (correct me if I'm wrong) that your formula for the MLB underdog system may need adjusted a bi t in reference to cell M.  It appears to be elminating any <150 dog that has won their previous game.
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#13
Posted: 4/16/2013 3:54:20 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Scoblen:

Looked at it a bit further and I think (correct me if I'm wrong) that your formula for the MLB underdog system may need adjusted a bi t in reference to cell M.  It appears to be elminating any <150 dog that has won their previous game.

correction: should read column M

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#14
Posted: 4/16/2013 4:04:17 PM
Scoblen looks to be correct, nice catch (assuming it's correct). That would explain the elimination of those teams as discussed. We'll need to wait for Degen to chime in.
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#15
Posted: 4/16/2013 5:11:33 PM
Division underdogs:
http://www.sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AWD+and+DIV+and+line%3C180&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

Under 6 hits:
http://www.sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AW+and+po%3Ahits%3C%3D6+and+series+game%3Dseries+games%3D3+and+DIV&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

play around with parameters
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#16
Posted: 4/16/2013 5:35:23 PM

DanRules / Scoblen - great catches guys - i did find an error in the formula in COL M - thanks a lot

I updated the spreadsheet and uploaded a new version to the link (V4).  Also I added a refresh odds button - it occured to me that the odds may change throughout the day - so a no-play may become a play or a play may become a no play.

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#17
Posted: 4/16/2013 6:00:54 PM

After the latest version, I updated the odds and ran the update. For Unders I'll use the best Vegas line I can find at the time. Here we go:

YTD record: 0-1

YTD -1 unit

April 16 plays :

Philly 140 1 unit to win 1.4

SD 155  1 unit to win 1.55

Pitts 130 1 unit to win 1.3

Miami 148 1 unit to win 1.48

Minn 120 1 unit to win 1.2

ChiSox 143  1 unit to win 1.43

AZ 118  1 unit to win 1.18

Tex/Cubs Under 7.5 -115  1.15 units to win 1

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#18
Posted: 4/16/2013 7:04:38 PM

You RULE! - DanRules

Hopefully - they are profitable as is or we can see some way to tweak / add filters so we can avoid some dogs so that every day is profitable - Dog systems only need to hit @ 44% (i think) but if we can get it to hit at 50+% by filtering out plays - may be something there. 

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#19
Posted: 4/16/2013 7:30:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

You RULE! - DanRules

Hopefully - they are profitable as is or we can see some way to tweak / add filters so we can avoid some dogs so that every day is profitable - Dog systems only need to hit @ 44% (i think) but if we can get it to hit at 50+% by filtering out plays - may be something there. 

I'll update and post every day. I might need someone to step in for a day or two at times since I have some travel planned, but for now, I will track it. Will be fun to see how it does. Thanks for your work on the spreadsheet, simply awesome!

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#20
Posted: 4/17/2013 12:30:43 AM
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#21
Posted: 4/17/2013 1:37:19 AM

Tuesday results: System went 5-1 with a rain out of Pitts and the Phil/Cin game being suspended. My book counts that as a no bet so I will too.

April 16 plays :

Philly 140 1 unit to win 1.4 suspened no bet

SD 155 1 unit to win 1.55

Pitts 130 1 unit to win 1.3 rain out

Miami 148 1 unit to win 1.48

Minn 120 1 unit to win 1.2

ChiSox 143 1 unit to win 1.43

AZ 118 1 unit to win 1.18

Tex/Cubs Under 7.5 -115 1.15 units to win 1

5-1 Tuesday, +5.66 units

YTD 5-2

Units +4.66

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#22
Posted: 4/17/2013 10:05:30 AM

too bad PITT got rained out - they were up 4-2, could have been another win.

 

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#23
Posted: 4/17/2013 11:38:21 AM

System plays for 4/17 (all 1 unit at + or even odds):

Balt 101

Pitts 100

ChiSox 123

Philly 126

Miami 140

SF 106

Minn 113

SD 205

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#24
Posted: 4/17/2013 11:55:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

System plays for 4/17 (all 1 unit at + or even odds):

Balt 101

Pitts 100

ChiSox 123

Philly 126

Miami 140

SF 106

Minn 113

SD 205


now DG system shows only 5 games: Balt, ChiSox, Philly, SF, Minn 

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#25
Posted: 4/17/2013 12:08:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Cuntchaser:


now DG system shows only 5 games: Balt, ChiSox, Philly, SF, Minn 

SD is definitely a play under the 6 hit allowed system. Won last game allowing 6 hits or less and now a dog in final game of series.

Miami falls into the Division dog as they won last game and face a div opponent as a dog.

Pitt will be a MLB Underdog system play if they stay a dog. Last time I checked still a dog.

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