maths question help

Forum: Systems & Strategies
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: maths question help
English_Gent PM English_Gent
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 289
 
English_Gent
Participation Meter
Posted: 4/14/2013 1:18:18 PM
i am not much of a maths guy but I have been working on and have been flat betting a system I came up recently but am thinking of turning it into a 4 game chase.....to lose the chase a +200 underdog would have to win 4 times in row....anyone know what the chances of this happening are? therefore what are my chances of losing the 4 game chase....thanks in advance...
1958a PM 1958a
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 142
 
1958a
Participation Meter
Posted: 4/14/2013 3:16:30 PM
when a dog is +x then the probability of it winning the game is

10000/(100+x) that is for x=+200 : 10000/300=33,33%

if it goes to win 4 times in a row them you have o.3333 to the power of 4 , that is 1,23%
1958a PM 1958a
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 142
 
1958a
Participation Meter
Posted: 4/14/2013 3:51:58 PM
http://g.sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=line%3E200+and+season%3E2006&submit=S+D+Q+L+!


26,3% winning percentage after 2006 or 0,478% for 4 in a row.
interesting result: blindly playing dogs +200 you lose (do not think that playing favs at -260 willbe any better!
Forum: Systems & Strategies
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.