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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2013 DOG and PONY SHOW
vegaspete send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#51
Posted: 4/6/2013 1:52:58 AM
May = 45/58
June = 22/34
July = 21/28

So am I right that the record for May was 45 wins out of 58 games for 13 losses, etc. That would be a total of 88-32 for a win percentage of 73%?

I know it comes down to judgement, but could you explain a little more about how you look at line movement, would a game automatically be a no play if the dog and fav had switched at some point during the day, or are you really only looking at movement during the 20 minutes prior to the game? Thanks.
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#52
Posted: 4/6/2013 1:55:18 AM
What if for example, the opening line for the favorite was -117, but right before the game it is at -110, is it a play, or would you consider that too much line movement?
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#53
Posted: 4/6/2013 11:55:12 AM
Washington? Arizona?
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#54
Posted: 4/6/2013 1:48:28 PM
The line only works for Covers. I've tried other sportsbooks but the lines are all over the place. All that matters is if the line meets the criteria near game time. Near is a relative term. I like to wait until about 5 minutes before game time. Sometimes action happens right at the last minute and it changes the line after the game starts, usually this isn't a big enough difference that it would make it a non play. You can use whatever site you like to watch line movement. What you are looking for is big jumps in the line or lines that switch from dog to fav and back and forth. Many times lines will favor a home team and later the pitching line up will change and the visitor will become the favorite. The point here it's a judgment call.

Arizona is looking like a play, check back right before the game and see if holds up.
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#55
Posted: 4/6/2013 1:56:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bronco6:

Very tricky indeed.  Watched the covers odds on the Texas / LAA  gm. which was Tex -110  LAA +108  up to the point where I figured it was going off the board . Still these odds showing. I place bet & game starts, now odds at covers are Tex -117  LAA +108. If line had been jumping around I would have laid off. But was @ the -110 / +108 for some time.  Tricky indeed.


Weird, I never saw that line of -110/108. Are you sure you watch that line a few minutes before game time? -110/+108 is a strange line. Normally when lines are below -110 the dog rarely goes below even.
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#56
Posted: 4/6/2013 5:20:17 PM
Irage, you are missing StL -102 LOSS from Apr 3 in the record keeping.

I think we'll be on Arizona today.
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#57
Posted: 4/6/2013 6:43:36 PM
Line jumped to Milwaukee, which I am glad to see.

Your right about St. Louis. My guess is the line changed after the game started.
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#58
Posted: 4/6/2013 7:09:54 PM
-112 close to call
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#59
Posted: 4/6/2013 7:14:20 PM
no play!
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#60
Posted: 4/6/2013 7:31:20 PM
I agree!
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#61
Posted: 4/6/2013 7:33:15 PM
Tommorrow's game is tied -104 a piece! LOL
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#62
Posted: 4/6/2013 9:01:18 PM

Angels were a hungry dog going against a not so great pitcher in Harrison (LHP) They had to win this game (3rd and last game in the set after they lost the first 2) and they did. Texas can't hit like they used to. Lesson for me next time.

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#63
Posted: 4/6/2013 9:04:39 PM

On the LAA / TEX game yesterday. I was watching odds on covers scores & match-up page. These may not be the odds I should be following. Will start using covers live odds.

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#64
Posted: 4/6/2013 10:55:17 PM
WTF, the Arizona/Milwaukee game is a classic example of line changes. It favored Arizona, then moved to Milwaukee, then it was off the board after game started and then the line changed back again to favor Milwaukee again. This had red flag all over it.
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#65
Posted: 4/7/2013 12:26:24 PM
Ari/Mil doing the same thing today.
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#66
Posted: 4/7/2013 12:37:17 PM
Milwaukee,  Washington ?


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#67
Posted: 4/7/2013 1:00:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gbpackman:

Angels were a hungry dog going against a not so great pitcher in Harrison (LHP) They had to win this game (3rd and last game in the set after they lost the first 2) and they did. Texas can't hit like they used to. Lesson for me next time.

I gotta learn how to read a schedule. LOL Angels play today. Great game with Weaver and Darvish!!! Hope Weav doesn't get lit up like last year. Texas isn't as potent

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#68
Posted: 4/7/2013 1:02:54 PM
Washington is a go at 100
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#69
Posted: 4/7/2013 1:04:29 PM
Milwaukee is trying avoid a sweep, so they are no play.
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#70
Posted: 4/8/2013 1:15:56 PM
Mets are a potential play today.
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#71
Posted: 4/9/2013 12:11:34 AM
Nice call on the Mets!
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#72
Posted: 4/12/2013 5:01:59 PM
toronto today??
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#73
Posted: 4/12/2013 5:13:42 PM
Minnesota, Toronto or Oakland..?
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#74
Posted: 4/12/2013 8:45:42 PM
Colorado is the only on the table today. If you want to take Oakland over Detroit be my guest, but I think that's a bad pick.
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#75
Posted: 4/13/2013 9:12:56 PM
Seems like we've had tons of plays recently?
Posted using a mobile device.
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