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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 73-32 Remarkably Simple NBA System
BCap888
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#1
Posted: 1/29/2013 2:18:59 AM

Through 105 system games this season, I’ve found a 70% NBA Against the Spread winner. 73 Wins and 32 Losses. I actually found this accidentally and just backtested the results on this season’s games so far. It’s remarkably simple once you understand it but at first it might not make sense. What we’re looking for are FAVORITES that were UNDERDOGS in their last game. Those teams pass the first test of the system. Once we have those teams we’re looking for the ones that the point spread from the last game to this game has shifted by MORE THAN 10 POINTS, which is confusing as hell to explain without an example:

Jan. 25 Spurs +1.5 at Mavericks (W)

Jan. 26 Spurs -9.5 vs. Suns (L)

In those back to back games the Spurs went from a DOG to a FAV and the spread moved by 11 points. If that’s still difficult to comprehend just remove the plus and minus and add the spreads together.

Now, when the Spurs line came out at -9.5 (or -9 for that matter) we had a system trigger. The system is to take the opposite ATS result of the previous game. Since the Spurs covered against the Mavericks, our bet would have been on the Suns +9.5. Like I said it’s fairly confusing at first glance but after a while you’re just looking for a FAV following a DOG and then it’s pretty easy. I’ll explain why this makes logical sense in the next post. BOL.

CAP

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BCap888
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#2
Posted: 1/29/2013 2:27:27 AM
If you care, an explanation on why the above system should work:

When a line moves by more than 10 points from one game to the next for a team, it's usually because the two teams they were playing were very different. Because the team in question is almost always exactly the same from one game to the next. If a team covers as a dog and is a favorite in their next game that means they're almost always playing a worse team in the second game than the first. This means complacency can set in. On the flip side if a team fails to cover against the better team, there's a good chance they're looking to make up for it when they go against the inferior team next time out as a favorite. I was shocked that the results were as successful as they were and hopefully they can stay that way the rest of the year. BOL.

CAP
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BCap888
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#3
Posted: 1/29/2013 2:33:22 AM
Tomorrow there is actually a hit for this system:

Portland  -2.5

They were 8.5 point dogs against the Clippers last game and failed to cover so I'm looking for them to cover at home against Dallas. If the Lakers line moves up to -7.5 I'll be on the Hornets in that game since the Lakers covered as 3 point dogs against OKC. For now though just the one.
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#4
Posted: 1/29/2013 10:13:20 AM
Be careful with POR though, as this is POR's 3rd game in 4 nights, and because their bench is the least productive at 16.5 ppg, POR starters log in the most playing minutes of any NBA team.
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BCap888
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#5
Posted: 1/29/2013 11:32:45 AM
Hornets are at +7.5 and are a play. I've Locked in Blazers -2.5 and Hornets +7.5. BOL
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#6
Posted: 1/29/2013 12:03:45 PM
BCap,

What site are you using for backtesting?

Thx
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BCap888
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#7
Posted: 1/29/2013 12:30:37 PM
The Gold Sheet
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#8
Posted: 1/29/2013 12:44:37 PM
cap do you only use opening line or closing lines? Or if it moves within the 10 pt range during the day (i.e opened and closed at 9.5, but at one pt was 10.5)?
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#9
Posted: 1/29/2013 12:56:04 PM
I only used the closing lines from TGS. However while going through the games it occurred to me that 10 points was sort of an arbitrary number and that a lot of games were hitting going off at 9 or 9.5 also. Because of that I'd be comfortable jumping on a game when the line hits 10 points difference because it's most likely not going to stray too far. And let's remember that the whole idea was that the opponent was much different from the last one. 9, 9.5, or 10 points are all about the same, to me, for that purpose. 
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#10
Posted: 1/29/2013 1:53:20 PM
I got it at 95-95 last year roughly that is using 10 pt closing lines from pinnacle.  Perhaps the shortened season affected results.   
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#11
Posted: 1/29/2013 1:57:31 PM
Thanks ADG. I'm going to see how it starts as of now and if it starts losing, then maybe it's more of a better bet to fade as it moves closer back down to the .500 mark.
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#12
Posted: 1/29/2013 11:17:01 PM
Not looking good for tonight. Tomorrow Sacramento taking +7 from Boston is a play as long as it's 7 or more. Toronto is also a play at +6.5 against Atlanta. Probably not catching as many points as we would have on Sacramento if Rondo was playing but more than 6.5 is enough for me. BOL.

CAP
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#13
Posted: 1/30/2013 12:09:31 AM
Hey cap i'm backtesting this system and its giving me a headache. I am using covers lines closing at 9.5. The way you posted the system it is hitting ~50%.
I have noticed that a team can go on a steak with this system so by the end of the season I can see it settling close to 50% again.

I thought of some filters. Must open previous game as a dog and betting game as a fave...Only play if previous game is a win only or loss only. Only play certain teams. Only play certain teams if previous was a win only or if previous was a loss only. A total filter?
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#14
Posted: 1/30/2013 1:03:38 AM
1-1 Since Post 74-33 YTD.

Would have rather had Portland continue to get their teeth kicked in rather than win the game with no cover. 

Air are you testing for this season and getting around 50%? And filters would definitely help but I don't know what you mean by a team can go on a streak. We're not really going to be betting into streaks since most times we're never betting a team in back to back games. Unless we're betting against a FAV and then betting on that same DOG in their next game as a FAV. I'd love to hear some more suggestions though if you have them, I'm not exactly married to the way I presented the system.
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#15
Posted: 1/30/2013 4:38:31 AM
I tested previous seasons. Not this season. And when I spoke about streaks, I meant chasing a team for 3 games to win 1 unit does not work.  A team can start out 2-0 and end up 4-6.

I think there might be something by breaking it down by teams and only playing if previous game was a win ats or only play if previous was a loss ats.
i.e boston is only a play if they won their previous as a dog and are now favs - they usually lose in this situation. Or atlanta lost their previous game as a dog and are now faves.
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#16
Posted: 1/30/2013 7:47:59 AM

BCap;

If I understand the system correctly, wouldn't Det +8 @ Ind also be a play?  Ind was a dog in their last game by 5.5 and they covered.

Thanks for the work on this.  It looks promising.

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1958a
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#17
Posted: 1/30/2013 1:08:49 PM
Bcap,
I remember you from a very interesting MLB thread last season.
did you do an SDQL query on this?  you are so good at it...

F and p:D and p:line-line>10 and p:ats margin>0 and season=2012
15-38 ats GREAT!

D and p:F and line-p:line>10 and p:ats margin<0 and season=2012
14-39 ats GREAT!

but if you check another season, this is NOT GOOD

please check my queries and answer back
SU results look very interesting.
my regards
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#18
Posted: 1/30/2013 3:44:33 PM
Sorry guys power has been out all day.

Budman you are right Detroit +8 is a play. 

Toronto +6.5
Sacramento +7
Detroit +8

1958 I didn't query this but yours look right. As I mentioned earlier I'll be looking to maybe fade this if it starts moving back towards .500. I'll be back later with some more stuff, not much time right this second. BOL guys.

CAP
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#19
Posted: 1/30/2013 10:03:10 PM
OK 1958 and Air: I just queried through some filters and found a relatively successful one. If we add that the total has to be under 193 both sides of the system (previous winners or previous losers) have combined for 29-7 this season. Although Detroit not covering tonight made it 29-8. It's very confusing, at least for me, to explain which system is which so I'll just include the query:

line<0 and 0<p:line and p:line-line>10 and p:ats margin>0 and total<193 and season=2012

D and p:F and line-p:line>10 and p:ats margin<0 and total<193 and season=2012

1958 I'm going to do something very similar for baseball again this season, can I PM you the plan?
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#20
Posted: 1/31/2013 4:30:37 PM
What about 2011? not good at all...



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#21
Posted: 1/31/2013 6:12:38 PM
Yeah I know which is why I'm going to start fading the system as of the next time there is a play. There isn't one tonight.
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#22
Posted: 2/1/2013 2:26:24 PM
To fade the system tonight we have Washington +6 and Cleveland +4.
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#23
Posted: 2/1/2013 4:22:31 PM

I understand the original system, but can you give an example on the fade system.

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#24
Posted: 2/1/2013 5:13:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cactusjack:

I understand the original system, but can you give an example on the fade system.


Jack, i believe he means to just fade the original system
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#25
Posted: 2/1/2013 10:28:06 PM
Yeah I'm scrapping this. Not enough evidence for me to be confident anymore. See you for baseball season fellas.

CAP
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