2012-13 BOWL GAMES SYSTEM

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2012-13 BOWL GAMES SYSTEM
breezeyo PM breezeyo
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quote#276
Posted: 12/5/2013 2:30:57 PM
What about Stanford/AZ State?  Isn't that a conflicting play?
Bart_ PM Bart_
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quote#277
Posted: 12/5/2013 5:01:52 PM
are you playing teams under the "some value" category?
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#278
Posted: 12/5/2013 9:15:27 PM
glefkb01...No chance to back test as I don't have access to the Sagarin info that needs to be current at the time for the week in question. They only have a running cumulative so using this week's info is not germane to previous weeks. I'm now saving each week. 

I can't comment on what I like as that has never been good enough for me to win enough with.
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quote#279
Posted: 12/5/2013 9:17:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by breezeyo:

What about Stanford/AZ State?  Isn't that a conflicting play?

Not conflicting as I'm not looking at that group to bet on. I'm only tracking it. 
Bart_ PM Bart_
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quote#280
Posted: 12/5/2013 10:24:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:


Not conflicting as I'm not looking at that group to bet on. I'm only tracking it. 
are you talking about the Stanford group? 
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quote#281
Posted: 12/5/2013 11:56:52 PM
Yes, the group designated as having "some value", is not a group I am betting on, only tracking. 
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quote#282
Posted: 12/6/2013 12:06:45 AM
Adding Central Florida with the new system:

College new system
(all of these plays have good value so another point higher should not matter)

CFl -10

NIL -3

Mem pk

ULL +3

Mizz +2 

Duke +29.5
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quote#283
Posted: 12/6/2013 12:11:55 AM
Oh, starlight,  a lovely full red star, the first star I see tonight...
Fanch PM Fanch
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quote#284
Posted: 12/6/2013 12:34:55 AM
 So just to be clear, are the plays above the ones you re playing or some additional. are the "official" plays ucf, niu, Mem, ULL,Mizz, and duke?
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#285
Posted: 12/6/2013 8:52:03 AM
old system 0 new system 1
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quote#286
Posted: 12/6/2013 11:23:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fanch:

 So just to be clear, are the plays above the ones you re playing or some additional. are the "official" plays ucf, niu, Mem, ULL,Mizz, and duke?

yep
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quote#287
Posted: 12/6/2013 11:33:39 AM


" I will bet small on every play from both systems; where both teams are picked from the same game, I'll default to the new system: Jax and Ind. College has no conflicting plays"

I AM NOT PLAYING FROM THESE SUBSETS, ONLY TRACKING:

hese plays also have some value, not as much as the plays above, but I'm not sure where the minimum value should be set.
Lou -3.5
Tex +13.5
Marsh -4.5
Stan +3
MiSt +5
UtSt +3

These plays also have some value, not as much as the plays above, but I'm not sure where the minimum value should be set.
Min +6.5
Det +2.5
StL +6
NYG +3 
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#288
Posted: 12/6/2013 9:49:11 PM
So I came home early from work as I might be getting a cold. I was planning to go to Vegas today or early tomorrow morning, but I may not as I'll probably be worse.
Anyway, as I'm watching this MAC game, I'm looking at my spread sheet and noticed that I put the net value for BGr in NIl row. So actually that makes BGr a play in my regular system, which for college has been the best system. I went back through and checked all of the other college games and found them to be correct. 

breezeyo PM breezeyo
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quote#289
Posted: 12/6/2013 10:54:31 PM
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#290
Posted: 12/7/2013 12:38:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fanch:

 So just to be clear, are the plays above the ones you re playing or some additional. are the "official" plays ucf, niu, Mem, ULL,Mizz, and duke?

You forgot to include these:
College regular system 

USF +5.5 ~ pk…(as stated above, I'm not playing this game)

OkSt  -10 ~ -10

AzSt -3 ~ -6


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quote#291
Posted: 12/7/2013 1:46:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

Adding Central Florida with the new system:

College new system
(all of these plays have good value so another point higher should not matter)

CFl -10

NIL -3

Mem pk

ULL +3  QB not playing

Mizz +2 

Duke +29.5
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#292
Posted: 12/7/2013 6:22:04 AM
NIU looked horrid.....small wager small mistake.
Posted using a mobile device.
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#293
Posted: 12/7/2013 10:12:21 AM

College regular system 

730pm   USF +5.5 ~ pk

12pm    OkSt  -10 ~ -10

745pm   AzSt -3 ~ -6

College new system
(all of these plays have good value so another point higher should not matter)

NIL -3  MISTAKE/ACCIENT
 
12pm UCF -10 (Line has moved 5-6 pts since opening)
1pm   Mem pk

4pm   Mizz +2
 
8pm   ULL +3 (QB Not playing)

8pm   Duke +29.5

TRACKING GAMES BELOW.
Lou -3.5 winner
330pm  Tex +13.5
12pm    Marsh -4.5
745pm  Stan +3
817pm  MiSt +5
10pm    UtSt +3


Starting the day with UCF, Oklahoma State, and Memphis
Bart_ PM Bart_
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quote#294
Posted: 12/7/2013 10:48:36 AM
USF has been eliminated. Post 274
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#295
Posted: 12/7/2013 11:20:54 AM
my bad...cut and pasted forgot to erase
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#296
Posted: 12/7/2013 11:21:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

I will probably eliminate USF from my picks. Just too weak of a team with new issues for me to bet on. They are 4-0 ATS away, but going to 30 degree weather from Tampa might be too much to stay within 6 points.
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#297
Posted: 12/7/2013 1:37:11 PM

OOOOoooo boy.

Looks like the weather is keeping Ok St from running away from the Sooners....Have confidence the Cowboys get going.

Stayed away from UCF game, too many points moved since line opened.   They are getting killed.

glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#298
Posted: 12/7/2013 2:45:36 PM
 

College regular system 
730pm   USF   ***** maybe eliminated
 
12pm    OkSt  -10 ~ -10Cmon Cowboys!

745pm   AzSt -3 ~ -6

College new system
(all of these plays have good value so another point higher should not matter)

NIL -3  MISTAKE/ACCIENT
 
12pm UCF -10 (Line has moved 5-6 pts since opening)
 
1pm   Mem pk

4pm   Mizz +2
 
8pm   ULL +3 (QB Not playing)

8pm   Duke +29.5

TRACKING GAMES BELOW.
Lou -3.5 winner
330pm  Tex +13.5
12pm    Marsh -4.5 blowout
745pm  Stan +3
817pm  MiSt +5
10pm    UtSt +3


 
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#299
Posted: 12/7/2013 3:10:07 PM

Okie State

Memphis

UCF

0-3 early games!

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quote#300
Posted: 12/7/2013 4:09:55 PM
glefkb01…I'm not too concerned with this new system of picks for college, they seem to work well for the NFL, now 8-1-1, so I'm looking forward to tracking them throughout the NFL season.  
The basis of the college bowl system has been winning overall in the regular season's past 4 weeks, 1-1 this week with AzSt pending. 
I don't regard this new system as critical for my college betting plan, just something that looked interesting, but was never back tested in college. I never got to Vegas this week but I would have bet big on OkSt and AzSt, and of course, I missed out on the BGr play. 
I expect we'll do well in the bowls, but I'm really hoping that this new NFL system of plays stays on track.
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