2012-13 BOWL GAMES SYSTEM

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2012-13 BOWL GAMES SYSTEM
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#251
Posted: 11/30/2013 6:33:25 PM

 
Here are the plays that my system picked, but I am NOT playing: 

Mass +17…bottom of the conference
UK +3.5...bottom of the conference
UtSt -20.5…QB replaced


Week 14 plays
I've included the maximum line for my system picks to still be played, so you can see how much room you have for line changes.

Miss -3  ~ -7 (QB has the flu, so check on his condition)

Tol -7.5  ~ -9

FAU -28 ~ -35

Fres -7.5 ~ -14
 
SATURDAY COMEBACK
 
FSU -27.5

Mizz -4 ~ -6.5

VaTc -13 ~ -17

Baylor -12 ~ -16

KsSt -16 ~ -21

Wisc -24 ~ -30

ArkSt  +6 ~ +2

N.Tx  -4.5 ~ -5.5

Clem +5.5 ~ +2

glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#252
Posted: 11/30/2013 9:28:40 PM
SATURDAY COMEBACK
 
FSU -27.5

Mizz -4 ~ -6.5

VaTc -13 ~ -17

Baylor -12 ~ -16

KsSt -16 ~ -21

Wisc -24 ~ -30

ArkSt  +6 ~ +2

N.Tx  -4.5 ~ -5.5

Clem +5.5 ~ +2
 
 
legendkiller007 PM legendkiller007
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quote#253
Posted: 11/30/2013 10:41:31 PM
Never double the bets!!! I committed the Cardinal Sin!!! I shall be punished   


gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#254
Posted: 12/1/2013 1:56:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by legendkiller007:

Never double the bets!!! I committed the Cardinal Sin!!! I shall be punished   




Yes, we were punished!

Here's how it went down for me. 

Week # 12 I bet $1,100 per game, went 7-2, net gain: $4,800.
Week # 13 I bet $1,100 per game, went 12-4-1, net gain:  $7,600
Week # 14 I bet $2,200 per game, went 4-7, net loss: $7,400

Total net gain from last 3 weeks: $5,000 (minus travel expenses approx. $1,500). Oh, and I lost most of my Covers red stars 

Total system plays for 4 weeks:

wk#11...12-2
wk#12...11-3
wk#13...12-2
wk#14….5-8
total…..40-15 = 73%

And now it's off to the NFL, and let's win there. 
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#255
Posted: 12/1/2013 7:48:51 AM

Oh, and I lost most of my Covers red stars 

That's funny Grateful.   Not a great week for me, went to a poker tourney.   Busted first one out with AA to a guy who went all in with A6.

I have no doubt it was more of a "last weekend" everyone getting ready for championship game kinda week   HUGE UPSETS and definitely a Bookie weekend. 

glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#256
Posted: 12/1/2013 7:56:58 AM

Grateful...

Did you only play the system the last 3 weeks??

nghia1973 PM nghia1973
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quote#257
Posted: 12/1/2013 10:15:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by legendkiller007:

Never double the bets!!! I committed the Cardinal Sin!!! I shall be punished   



I did the same.  Double up this week 
It's all good.  Still have today to make up the loses 
nghia1973 PM nghia1973
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quote#258
Posted: 12/1/2013 10:22:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:



Total net gain from last 3 weeks: $5,000 (minus travel expenses approx. $1,500). 



You're still up.  That's all it matters. 
hyvong PM hyvong
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quote#259
Posted: 12/1/2013 10:41:43 AM
Gratefulbets, I appreciate your posts no matter win or lose. And I am sure many others do too. GL as always!
Bart_ PM Bart_
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quote#260
Posted: 12/1/2013 12:12:01 PM
Thanks for your posts man. I'm up just over 2 units for the past 2 weeks. Hope NFL kicks behind today. 
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#261
Posted: 12/1/2013 1:04:34 PM
Thanks for all the good thoughts. 

"I have no doubt it was more of a "last weekend" everyone getting ready for championship game kinda week   HUGE UPSETS and definitely a Bookie weekend". 

I did some research yesterday on the Thanksgiving week over the past 4 years.
I wanted to see if Friday (including the few games before Friday) was different from Saturday in % of wins with the dog covering ATS, and if the entire week was different from the other weeks.

FRIDAY                                          SATURDAY           TOTAL
YEAR…..DOGS W/L…%…………DOGS W/L…%…..…W/L…...%
2012……9/16…………57…………….14/40……35…….23/56…41
2011……9/16…………57……...……..17/38……37…....26/54…49
2010……6/16…………38……………..18/38..…48…….24/54….45
2009…..10/15…………67……………..20/34…..59……30/49….62

2013……9/19…………48……………..23/40…..58…….32/59….55

Except for 2010, the other 3 years, and this year, have the dogs covering ATS above the league average of 48% on Friday, or Sat., or both.

Bart_ PM Bart_
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quote#262
Posted: 12/1/2013 5:39:28 PM
Good research man. 

You live, you learn. 
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#263
Posted: 12/1/2013 6:50:43 PM
NFL week # 13

System plays

Tenn +3.5

Jax +7

Car -7.5

Miami +2.5

Buff -3.5

NE -7
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#264
Posted: 12/2/2013 9:59:51 AM
OT loser on Buffalo....   3-3.     


better luck this week grateful.    

appreciate your hard work and your plays (win or lose)
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#265
Posted: 12/2/2013 10:04:24 AM
new week, getting back what was lost....going with seattle

i hate this play but NO is a nono on the road.
legendkiller007 PM legendkiller007
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quote#266
Posted: 12/2/2013 2:08:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

new week, getting back what was lost....going with seattle

i hate this play but NO is a nono on the road.
 Seattle is an obvious pick. And obvious picks on Monday night's always......you know what 
Fanch PM Fanch
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quote#267
Posted: 12/2/2013 2:44:40 PM
Wow! I was in for last years bowl games . I did not realize you were doing regular season plays..glad to be back GB !
Posted using a mobile device.
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#268
Posted: 12/2/2013 6:28:26 PM
i agree. I lose every monday play I make....just lookin for anyones insight
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#269
Posted: 12/3/2013 4:17:41 PM
Grateful, u playing the champioship games this weekend?
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#270
Posted: 12/4/2013 3:12:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

Grateful, u playing the champioship games this weekend?

Yep, Im just about through with capping the games, but won't post until later tonight...ya know, my day job.
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#271
Posted: 12/4/2013 4:25:04 PM
Cool,  take your time and check that list twice...tis the season!
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#272
Posted: 12/5/2013 2:10:48 AM
OK, so here is what I've been doing. 
On Sunday I spent time reviewing the college games that went 5-8,  first, looking for clerical mistakes, none, then looking for new criterias for selecting plays with my system.  After a few hours I started playing with some of the systems raw data and found another criteria that looked interesting. So I tried it with the NFL for that day and those picks went 7-1-1, as opposed to my original picks that went 3-3. With this new system, 3 of the 7 wins were the same, and  2 new wins came from picking the opposing teams I lost (Ind and Atl). 1 loss, NE, stayed the same, and 1 other win was NYG. 
This isn't much to go on, but I want to track it this week for both college and NFL. I also capped these games with the system I've been using. 

College regular system 

USF +5.5 ~ pk

OkSt  -10 ~ -10

AzSt -3 ~ -6

College new system
(all of these plays have good value so another point higher should not matter)

NIL -3

Mem pk

ULL +3

Mizz +2 

Duke +29.5

These plays also have some value, not as much as the plays above, but I'm not sure where the minimum value should be set.
Lou -3.5
Tex +13.5
Marsh -4.5
Stan +3
MiSt +5
UtSt +3


NFL regular system

Hou -3 ~ -3

KC -3 ~ -3

Cin -6 ~ -7

TB -2.5 ~ -5


NFL new system
(all of these plays have high value so a few points more should not matter)

Jax +3

KC -3

Oak +2.5

Ind +6

Car +3

Miami +3

Sea +2.5

Dal +1

These plays also have some value, not as much as the plays above, but I'm not sure where the minimum value should be set.
Min +6.5
Det +2.5
StL +6
NYG +3 


 

gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#273
Posted: 12/5/2013 2:28:11 AM
Sorry if some of these picks are contradicting, or confusing. I could have kept this new system to myself and waited until it could be proved to be a viable system, but it was too darn interesting. Anyway, I will bet small on every play from both systems; where both teams are picked from the same game, I'll default to the new system: Jax and Ind. College has no conflicting plays. 
GL
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#274
Posted: 12/5/2013 2:59:30 AM
I will probably eliminate USF from my picks. Just too weak of a team with new issues for me to bet on. They are 4-0 ATS away, but going to 30 degree weather from Tampa might be too much to stay within 6 points.
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#275
Posted: 12/5/2013 6:24:05 AM

Always,,, thanks for sharing Grateful

Have you back checked the new tweak in the system??

I like the Carolina play....it seems this year when a team has a bad game everyone jumps on them the following week  thinking they will have a rebound game and yet that team loses again.   Public will be all over NO at home following that horrid game in Seattle.

Same thing happened with KC after its loss to Denver came home to play SD and gave up a 30 point lead and Detroit against Pitt came back to host TB at home and stunk up the joint.

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