Messages

Forum Index : Systems & Strategies : Messages
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Refined in game betting discussion
wdtemacg send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
wdtemacg
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 80
Location: Nebraska
#1
Posted: 11/19/2012 10:58:05 AM

Talked a little bit about in game hedging a while back...starting to refine the process a little bit and wanted to share some of the setbacks I had and continue to get advice from others.

For the record what I was doing was placing a bet on the dog ML before the game began, then waited for a time during the game where the game took a turn and the dog was then the favorite. Then I'd place a bet on the opposite side to secure "plus" moneylines bets on either side, thus guaranteeing a victory.

What I found was that of course, like anything else, it's never "just that easy" but it can make your BR last a hell of a lot longer than just playing sides and totals. Sure, there are going to be those games where the favorite dominates from start to finish and you can't work the angle, but here are some observations I made to try minimize loss in those situations.

1) It should go without saying, but you really have to be sure you're going to be able to watch the game live from start to finish. No gamecast, no checking scores on cell phones, you literally need to be in front of the TV to observe the emotions, the runs, the effects of turnovers, etc. Also, it helps to know when commercials are on as most sites will only offer in game bets during commercial breaks.

2) Only place your initial ML bet on a home dog. Yes, you can put it down on a road dog - but if the game gets out of hand early and the odds never come back down to allow a hedge - or worse, and the website you use won't post odds at all in a blowout situation - then you're just throwing money away. The same thing can happen to home dogs, but it seems to me like it doesn't happen as often.

3) Only use 5% of your roll. That way if the game does get out of hand, you can still hedge and break even at -1900 odds. Of course, you'd have to make damn sure the game was over at that point as you'd be risking the other 95% of your roll on the favorite, but you get my point.

4) Never hedge with sides or totals. In the rare case that after all these tips you are still facing a sure ML loss it will be easy to try to gamble and recoup your 5% on what you think is a lock on a total bet since you've been watching the whole game and think you know both teams and the flow of the game pretty well. That's gambling, and garbage can still happen. Just take a knee, eat the loss and move on. There will be more wins than losses, so there's no need to gamble and lose even more.

5) In case you haven't got it by now - never make a play that be considered a gamble. Props, etc.

 

So there are my observations after 2 months....pretty simple stuff. My main problem right now is that I use 5Dimes and they like to pull the ML off the board fairly early in a game, even as much as simply a 3 score game. The game could be 31-10 and they'd still pull the ML off the board in the 3rd quarter, which of course makes it impossible for me to hedge.

I'm looking for a website that will offer the ML for as long as possible in a blowout game so I can get my hedge. I realize that at some point the book would just be giving away free money at really shitty odds, but I still want to find it anyway.

Also I want to find a site that offers truly live in game betting and not only on commercials. I tried BetOnline, but they like to play games with their advertised games. They'll act as if a game will be offered live and then will pull it off the board prior to kickoff, leaving you with your person in your hand.

Thoughts, anyone?

quote
wdtemacg send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
wdtemacg
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 80
Location: Nebraska
#2
Posted: 11/19/2012 3:55:21 PM

another couple of notes that I forgot to include...

6) Don't place the 2nd 'hedge' bet while the dog is winning. There's no sense in hedging if you believe that the dog will win the game outright - unless you think the first TD, run of points or what have you was a fluke and this commercial break is your only shot to get a hedge bet in at a good price.

7) In football, don't use game for hedging with pregame lines of more than 7. Reason being that if a ML favorite is already -300, -400 or so then it will only take a couple of early scores to push that line to something outrageous like -2500 or more and take away the opportunity to hedge. You could argue that by refusing to play those games with larger lines that you're missing out on an opportunity to score big in the event of a dog win - but that's what I'd consider gambling and as I said before, I can't do that.

What that figure of 7 translates to in basketball or other sports, I couldn't tell you. It'll take more playing for me to determine that.

quote
wdtemacg send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
wdtemacg
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 80
Location: Nebraska
#3
Posted: 11/21/2012 1:36:33 PM
Let me tack on one more important point - only play one game at a time. It's too difficult to play two at once (maybe you can do it) and you might need a large chunk of your BR to hedge in the first game you're in, leaving you in a bad spot if the same thing happens in the second game.
quote
Forum Index : Systems & Strategies : Messages
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.