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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA System Plays
Air1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#76
Posted: 11/27/2012 12:30:27 AM
QUOTESorry about the triple post, internet problem

Originally Posted by akell09:

My system, as you know, is very simple.  You just play the ATS, the road favorite with the best record each day.  Only filter is, the team we play must have a record over .500.  And I use a labby line for money management.

Yesterday's play was San Antonio -6, which was a loss.

My line started like this:  1 1 1 1 (units)  we bet 2.2 to win 2. But we lost.

So my line looked like this:  1 1 1 1 2.2   You always try to win the total of the first and the last number of the line. So the next bet will be 3.52 to win 3.2 units.  Keep your units small, I had a six game losing streak one time last year.  But this won over 62% of the plays.

Today's play was San Antonio -6.5, which was a win. So you cross  off the two numbers we won.

The line looks like this:  x 1 1 1 x.  But for me, whenever the far right number is one unit, I start my line over. So for me tomorrow, my line will again be 1 1 1 1.  And we are currently up +1 unit. From the start of the NBA season, I am up +22 units.



@ Akell thank you for the system. I hope we all hit gold this year and make our bookies eyes when they look at their accounts at the end of the season
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#77
Posted: 11/27/2012 8:37:59 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Air1:

@CG2A - I believe those are the plays as Mem is the only other one and they are off. All games are ATS. And I try to post when I can (as you can see with current plays, days in advance).

Current Streakers
Den W 5
Min L 5

Good deal, I think I am starting to understand (a little). If possible please post all OFFICIAL plays so I do not play a wrong play or miss one. Also going to give Stiflers Plays a try too

Apperciate you help and look forward to making some

CG

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#78
Posted: 11/27/2012 9:27:42 AM

Air, correct me if I'm wrong, since Memphis lost the (A) game last night in system #1, we are chasing them to win one of the next two games.  But in system #8, we are chasing Memphis to lose one of the next two games. 

 

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#79
Posted: 11/27/2012 1:22:17 PM
Akell that is correct.
The proper way to play this is to bet both ways. If you play only one way and that way losses then you lost x amount of units. whereas if you play both ways and lose 1 (x), you still win 1 - resulting in x-1 as your total loss.

Stifler's NBA chase.
S1 Final game on Sac fade. Play is Min +1.5.
S3 Game 1 of 4 Play on Lakers -7.5
S4 Game 1 of 4 Play on Houston -5

My PLays for today:
Dal 5.7 units to win
Sac 2 units to win
*****Wait for closing lines in my systems.
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#80
Posted: 11/27/2012 2:08:45 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Air1:

Akell that is correct.
The proper way to play this is to bet both ways. If you play only one way and that way losses then you lost x amount of units. whereas if you play both ways and lose 1 (x), you still win 1 - resulting in x-1 as your total loss.

Stifler's NBA chase.
S1 Final game on Sac fade. Play is Min +1.5.
S3 Game 1 of 4 Play on Lakers -7.5
S4 Game 1 of 4 Play on Houston -5

My PLays for today:
Dal 5.7 units to win
Sac 2 units to win
*****Wait for closing lines in my systems.

Air-to confirm, Min play (SAC fade) is a D bet for Stifler play which is final play and SAC is game 1 of 2 game chase for you, correct?

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#81
Posted: 11/27/2012 2:36:32 PM

Air, I looked thru Stifler systems and they look good.  I'm going to track them and see how they do.  I like your idea of starting his system #1 on the (B) game.  I want as few 4 games chases as possible and 3 games will give us plenty of plays.

For the Road Favorite system there are no plays today.  Phoenix is the only road favorite, but they have a losing record, so no play.

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#82
Posted: 11/27/2012 3:00:44 PM
CG yupp

akell

ADDED PLAY**
Phi is a home favorite. I am going to start a 1Q ML fade on them for 3 games.

Adding some ncaab plays
vermont, nc state, north ill, troy, denver, fairfeild, nebraska, and maryland. all for 1 unit
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#83
Posted: 11/27/2012 9:47:37 PM
Dallas is muthaflippin' clutch!
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#84
Posted: 11/28/2012 1:00:48 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SuperHappyTime:

Dallas is muthaflippin' clutch!

It's MOTHERFCKING CLUTCH!!!

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#85
Posted: 11/28/2012 1:44:07 AM
I hope ya'll trust the systems!

                     05-12   | When played @ |
................... | Record | 1U since 05-06  | Playing @   | 12-13 Record
System #1: | 88-1.... | +79.74 Units | 3 unit chase    | +3 1-0 (1 pending)
System #2: | 75-11.. | +37.5 Units.. | 2 unit chase    | +2 1-0
System #3: | 35-1.... | +26.74 Units | 1 unit chase    |
System #4: | 32-1.... | +23.74 Units | 1 unit chase    | +1 (missed a play, sorry) 1-0
System #5: | 77-44.. | +28.6 Units.. | 1..5 unit 1 play | +1.5 1-0
System #6: | 24-1.... | +15.74 Units | 1 unit chase    | +1 1-0
System #7: | 12-4.... | +7.6 Units..... | 3 unit 1 play *  | +3 1-0
System #8: | 44-5.... | +25.85 Units | 2 unit chase    |
Total                                                                    +11.5

* = Replaced previous system play.

Current Streakers
Den 5 W

PLAYS!!!!!!!!!!

SAC sys #5 - to win vs ind, sys #2 - 2 game chase to win vs min or ind. Total Bet with System #2 5.7 units
Mem sys #1 chase to win. Pending B Game
Mem sys #8 2 game chase for them to lose vs either Tor or Det. (plays against sys#1, PLAY BOTH WAYS)


Experimental Plays Record: (won't count to total record)
1Q ML +9.5 Units,
1Q ATS +3 Units
Football:  -16.5 Units
NBA non-system plays: - 1.1 + 1.5 Units = +.4 Units

I will update stiflers results when I can
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#86
Posted: 11/28/2012 11:45:54 AM
Memphis plays tonight for my systems Play for and against them as system #1 and #8 clash.
For Akell's system, I believe the play is SA. Please confirm when you can.
For Stifler's system the plays are: S1 (3 game chase) A Bet on Phoenix and A Bet on Tor to win. Also S4 (4 game chase) C Bet on Char to win.
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#87
Posted: 11/28/2012 1:55:11 PM
New to this thread. Are these full games plays or 1st QT plays. Thanks
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akell09
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#88
Posted: 11/28/2012 3:46:30 PM

Road favorite 11/28  (San Antonio -8)

Labby line: [ 1 1 1 1]   play 2.2 units to win 2.  

Posted plays unit total +1, unposted +22.

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#89
Posted: 11/28/2012 6:56:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by googotts:

New to this thread. Are these full games plays or 1st QT plays. Thanks


all are full game.
I play some 1Q moneyline and I always say if that is the case.
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#90
Posted: 11/28/2012 7:06:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by akell09:

Road favorite 11/28  (San Antonio -8)

Labby line: [ 1 1 1 1]   play 2.2 units to win 2.  

Posted plays unit total +1, unposted +22.





Adding a play: No rush on this one, but if Wash losses tonight to Port then I am going to do a 6 game SU chase, for 1/3 of a unit, on Wash to win a game.
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akell09
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#91
Posted: 11/28/2012 7:40:01 PM

You may want to hold up on that Washington chase.  The next 3 games are:

at N.Y.

Miami

at Atl.

Golden State ( I think they win this one).

 

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#92
Posted: 11/29/2012 1:50:54 AM
D'oh
I should have started the Washington chase vs Port. Betting for them to not have the worst start to an NBA season, just not early enough.


                     05-12   | When played @ |
................... | Record | 1U since 05-06  | Playing @   | 12-13 Record
System #1: | 88-1.... | +79.74 Units | 3 unit chase    | +6 2-0 (0 pending)
System #2: | 75-11.. | +37.5 Units.. | 2 unit chase    | +2 1-0 (1 pending)
System #3: | 35-1.... | +26.74 Units | 1 unit chase    | (0 pending)
System #4: | 32-1.... | +23.74 Units | 1 unit chase    | +1 1-0 (0 pending)
System #5: | 77-44.. | +28.6 Units.. | 1..5 unit 1 play | +1.5 1-0 (1 pending)
System #6: | 24-1.... | +15.74 Units | 1 unit chase    | +1 1-0 (0 pending)
System #7: | 12-4.... | +7.6 Units..... | 3 unit 1 play *  | +3 1-0 (0 pending)
System #8: | 44-5.... | +25.85 Units | 2 unit chase    |  (1 pending)
Total Units Won This Season                                 +14.5

* = Replaced previous system play.

Current Streakers
Den 5 W
LAC 4 L

PLAYS!!!!!!!!!!

SAC sys #5 + Sys #2 on Sac win vs ind ATS. Total Bet 5.7 units
Mem sys #8 2nd and final Bet on Det to win ATS Bet 4.2 Units.


Experimental Plays Record: (won't count to total record)
1Q ML +9.5 Units,
1Q ATS +3 Units
NCAAB + Football I am deleting. Kicking this thread stricking to NBA plays
NBA non-system plays: - 1.1 + 1.5 Units = +.4 Units

I will update stiflers results in my next post, hopefully.
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#93
Posted: 11/29/2012 2:54:15 AM
Starting a '1Q home fave ML chase' on LAC and Mem. 3 game chase. BOL

Stiflers records: (Had to go through 800 posts!)
S1: W 7 | L 1 (-1,26 units)
S2: W 0 | L 0 (+0,00 units)
S3: W 4 | L 0 (+4,00 units)
S4: W 12 | L 0 (+12,00 units)
Total: +15.26 units

pending:
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 30.11.2012
- S4 Atl fade, C Bet on 28.11.2012
- S1 Det fade, A Bet on 28.11.2012
- S3 Ind fade, B Bet on 30.11.2012
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#94
Posted: 11/29/2012 12:54:09 PM
@SHT - are you able to follow my picks more easily now? If you are still on that Spreadsheet, please share.

Stiflers records: (Had to go through 800 posts!)
S1: W 7 | L 1 (-1,26 units)
S2: W 0 | L 0 (+0,00 units)
S3: W 4 | L 0 (+4,00 units)
S4: W 12 | L 0 (+13,00 units 1, 2 unit play by him)
Total: +16.26 units

pending:
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 30.11.2012
- S1 Det fade, B Bet on 30.11.2012
- S1 Tor chase, B Bet on 30.11.2012
- S1 Utah fade, A Bet on 30.11.2012
- S3 Ind fade, B Bet on 30.11.2012
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#95
Posted: 11/29/2012 3:11:15 PM

Road favorite 11/29 (Denver -1.5)

Labby line: x 1 1 x   Whenever I get to the point where the number on the right side is 1, I start my line over at:  1 1 1 1

Posted units won +3,   from the nba begining +24.

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#96
Posted: 11/29/2012 3:29:57 PM
QUOTEI'm in! with Denver src="http://images.covers.com/covers/emoticons/an_cheers.gif">
Akell, just wondering here: the longest losing streak last season was 6 games in a row. You are using aggressive labby lines. Would it make sense if we break down the labby lines into an A, B, C game.

I am no expert with labby lines, but read this post
Originally Posted by SUPEREAGLE43:


For Opening Game Home Chase I am using the 3 Line 4 Strike Method.  My beginning line is my base bet amount divided by 4.   If my base amount is $8 then my line is 2-2-2-2.  If I win I strike all 4 numbers instead of the traditional 2 numbers.  If I lose I split the loss between Line's 1 and 2. Once the lines get longer than 4 numbers I add the last number and the first three numbers to get my bet amount. The 4 Strike approach is more aggressive and requires more bank, but I only need to hit 20% to break even so to speak.

Example:
My base bet or unit amount is $20

(A)BOS -150   $30 to win $20
(A)ATL  -200   $40 to win $20
(A)NYY -175   $35 to win $20

Game A Line
5-5-5-5  This is the total of 1 unit for me (5x4=20). 

Game B Line
5-5-5-5

Game C Line
5-5-5-5

Lets say that BOS and ATL win.  I won $40(2 units) on those two bets.  So Game A Line cleared twice because each win strikes off 4 numbers.  However, NYY lost 35.  So now I split the lost $35 and add it to Game A Line and Game B Line.

Game A Line
5-5-5-5-18

Game B Line
5-5-5-5-18

Game C Line
5-5-5-5

The next day the only play will be for NYY to win 33(The last number on Game B Line(18) + the 1st three numbers on Game B Line(5+5+5).  If the Yanks win you strike off the 4 numbers that you added for the bet leaving you with:
Game B Line
5
I then start a new Game B Line that will include that left over 5.

Game B Line
6.25-6.25-6.25-6.25

The only thing that really matters is to be sure to strike off 4 numbers with each win and add only 1 number with each loss per line, thus 20% breaks even.  The Home Favorite Chase works beautiful with this because it hits on 60% of its plays.  With this Labby 4 Strike Method it's very important for your base bet to be no higher than 1% of your bankroll to protect against the bad streaks.  Even better if you could start at .5% of your roll.


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#97
Posted: 11/29/2012 3:32:50 PM
That did not come out right.... I said:
I'm in! with Denver
Akell, just wondering here: the longest losing streak last season was 6 games in a row. You are using aggressive labby lines. Would it make sense if we break down the labby lines into an A, B, C game.

I am no expert with labby lines, but read this post

Also I am not suggesting the 4 strike method, 2 strike like you have been doing may be convenient .
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#98
Posted: 11/29/2012 7:42:23 PM

I'm no expert on labby lines either.  The one I use is probably the most basic method except for starting over when the right number is back to my starting unit.  When I lost six straight last year, it looked like this.

1)  bet 2.2 to win 2     1 1 1 1

2) bet 3.52 to win 3.2        1-1-1-1-2.2

3) bet 4.97 to win 4.52       1-1-1-1-2.2-3.52

4) bet 6.57 to win 5.97       1-1-1-1-2.2-3.52-4.97

5) bet 8.33 to win 7.57       1-1-1-1-2.2-3.52-4.97-6.57

6) bet 10.26 to win 9.33     1-1-1-1-2.2-3.52.4.97-6.57-8.33

7) bet 12.39 to win 11.26   finally won and was lucky enough to win 7 of the next 8 games to wipe out the line. If I would of lost game 7, I would have adjusted the amounts on the line.

 

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#99
Posted: 11/30/2012 1:31:04 AM
yeah i can see that getting nasty quick and that was the reason why I thought, and remembered, about the A, B, C lines Using the same approach, but separate bets would keep the lines from bloating and when they do start we can always shuffle them
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#100
Posted: 11/30/2012 8:09:41 AM
That is exactly why I advise anyone playing to keep your unit size small.  I'm playing a larger unit size on your systems.  I'm also staying very small on Stifler's systems.  I just don't understand why some teams we play and some we don't.  Like system #2, we only have five teams that we're playing.  Why?  Is it because the other teams have had losses when he back tested?  That is why I'm still more confident in your systems, all teams are used.
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