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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA System Plays
akell09 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 11/20/2012 8:52:53 AM
Looks like your ready to go with 4 game chases this year.  If you look at your post that explains the systems, all the chases were 3 games or less. I liked that and will stick with it.  A 3 game chase loss is only a little over 8 units and a 4 game loss is over 18 units.  It won't take long to recover from a 3 game loss, but a 4 game loss will take a long time.  And if you have mulitple 4 game losses this year, there won't be much profit it any at all.
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#27
Posted: 11/20/2012 3:11:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by akell09:

Looks like your ready to go with 4 game chases this year.  If you look at your post that explains the systems, all the chases were 3 games or less. I liked that and will stick with it.  A 3 game chase loss is only a little over 8 units and a 4 game loss is over 18 units.  It won't take long to recover from a 3 game loss, but a 4 game loss will take a long time.  And if you have mulitple 4 game losses this year, there won't be much profit it any at all.


Making an exception here as it is start of the season and it is for .5 units.
Total loss would be 9.24 units in a 4 gamer as opposed to a 1 unit, 3 game chase costing 8.26 units.
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#28
Posted: 11/20/2012 6:42:01 PM

For the third time in four days, New Orleans Hornets rookie forward Anthony Davis tweaked his left ankle but he is expected to start Tuesday night against the New York Knicks.

http://videos.nola.com/times-picayune/2012/11/new_orleans_hornets_forward_an_10.html

My $ is on the Knicks! -6 bought hook.

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#29
Posted: 11/20/2012 11:44:37 PM
Hope I was of some help!
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#30
Posted: 11/21/2012 1:30:45 AM
@ SHT + all
Looked over the conflicting systems again. Last yr I was about to drop it, but overall it does make a profit. Also was thinking about making each system a different unit size.

Looked more deeply at it tonight and saw that west Game C of the chase are just under .500 and east are at .750. I am thinking of only playing east C games.

That being said NYK are an East team so continue with the chase.

System #. Record. 1 unit per chase. Will be played at
System #1: 88-1 + 79.74 Units 3 unit chase
System #2: 75-11 +37.5 Units 2 unit chase
System #3: 35-1 +26.74 Units 1 unit chase
System #4: 32-1 +23.74 Units 1 unit chase
System #5: 77-44 +21 Units 3 unit single play
System #6: 24-1 +15.74 Units 1 unit chase
System #7: 123-9 +58.74 Units - REPLACED with 12-4 4 unit single game play.... 4 unit single play
System #8: 44-5 +25.85 Units 2 unit chase
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#31
Posted: 11/21/2012 1:03:30 PM
Current Streakers
Sac 8 L's
with a PUSH, waiting on a win!
LAC 6 W's waiting on a loss!

PLAYS!!!!!!!!!!

Dal TBD
3rd and Final play on chase to fade the NYK.
1 Unit 3 game chase on Sac to W ats.
Mem TBD
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#32
Posted: 11/21/2012 8:40:48 PM
Lakers are hot! I wont fade them @ -5.5
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#33
Posted: 11/22/2012 12:25:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gbpackman:

Lakers are hot! I wont fade them @ -5.5


No, no, no, nooo, don’t phunk with my sys'
(Yeah)
No, no, no, noooo, don’t phunk with my sys'
I wonder if I take you home
Would you still be in love, baby (in love, baby)


I'll update the records later
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#34
Posted: 11/22/2012 12:47:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:



No, no, no, nooo, don’t phunk with my sys'
(Yeah)
No, no, no, noooo, don’t phunk with my sys'
I wonder if I take you home
Would you still be in love, baby (in love, baby)


I'll update the records later


because I need you tonight...

your love is....


take me home


hahahah
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#35
Posted: 11/22/2012 8:11:20 AM

I hope when you post the records that you show the records of just this season and units won this season.

And a nice win with Dallas over NY on the (C) bet!!

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#36
Posted: 11/22/2012 9:46:36 AM
nice wins with sac and dal!
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#37
Posted: 11/22/2012 11:30:13 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Air1:


I'll update the records later

Air - when you post plays, any way you can post which system they fall under.

I'm following along and want to make sure i'm understanding the systems correctly.

Thanks

DG

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#38
Posted: 11/22/2012 12:08:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Air - when you post plays, any way you can post which system they fall under.

I'm following along and want to make sure i'm understanding the systems correctly.

Thanks

DG



I'll do that from now on. Sac was a system #6 play, Dal fell under system #7, which is now replaced, but would have still been a play.

Did a quick look over on thanksgiving day games.
11-12
R U, R U, H U
10-11
R O, H O, H U
9-10
R U, H U, H U
08-09
R O, H U, H O
07-08
R O, H U, R O
06-07
R U, H O, H U

I am thinking a chase on the under should work. 2 units.
If Road team covers the first game then I will also chase the next 2 home games for 2 units
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#39
Posted: 11/23/2012 8:46:02 AM
I am thinking a chase on the under should work. 2 units.
If Road team covers the first game then I will also chase the next 2 home games for 2 units
I hope you resisted the under chase! 
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#40
Posted: 11/23/2012 4:30:17 PM
I missed the first game and just played the 2nd and third. I should have had the Texans game, stupid refs then an emotional coach

                              05-12
..................... | Record | 1U a Play Profit | Playing at | 12-13 Record
System #1: | 88-1.... | +79.74 Units | 3 unit chase | +3
System #2: | 75-11... | +37.5 Units.. | 2 unit chase |
System #3: | 35-1.... | +26.74 Units | 1 unit chase |
System #4: | 32-1.... | +23.74 Units | 1 unit chase | +1 (missed a play, sorry)
System #5: | 77-44.. | +28.6 Units.. | 1.5 unit 1 play |
System #6: | 24-1.... | +15.74 Units | 1 unit chase | +1
System #7: | 12-4.... | +7.6 Units.... | 3 unit 1 play ** | +3
System #8: | 44-5.... | +25.85 Units | 2 unit chase |

** = Replaced previous system play.

Current Streakers
None

PLAYS!!!!!!!!!!

Dal 2 unit, 2 game chase for them to win. system #2
Dal 1.5 units to win @PHI. system #5
SAC TBD sys #5 vs ind, others.
Mem TBD
LAC TBD Sys 1 maybe.
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#41
Posted: 11/23/2012 6:03:47 PM
What is the system #4 play that you missed?  I can't find it and I'm trying to find all the plays myself.
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#42
Posted: 11/23/2012 6:12:21 PM

For 11/23, here is what I have:

system #1 against Memphis (LAL +4.5)  1st game

system #1 against LA Clippers (Brooklyn +2.5)  1st game

 

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#43
Posted: 11/23/2012 11:39:17 PM
It was a play i did not list on Dal. Reason why I apologized and said i missed it. If you want I will not count it.

                       05-12
.................. | Record | 1U a Play Profit | Playing at | 12-13 Record
System #1: | 88-1.... | +79.74 Units | 3 unit chase   | +3
System #2: | 75-11.. | +37.5 Units.. | 2 unit chase   |
System #3: | 35-1.... | +26.74 Units | 1 unit chase   |
System #4: | 32-1.... | +23.74 Units | 1 unit chase   | +1 (missed a play, sorry)
System #5: | 77-44.. | +28.6 Units.. | 1.5 unit 1 play |
System #6: | 24-1.... | +15.74 Units | 1 unit chase   | +1
System #7: | 12-4.... | +7.6 Units..... | 3 unit 1 play * | +3
System #8: | 44-5.... | +25.85 Units | 2 unit chase   |

* = Replaced previous system play.

Current Streakers
None

PLAYS!!!!!!!!!!

Dal 2 unit, 2 game chase for them to win. system #2
Dal 1.5 units to win @PHI. system #5
SAC TBD sys #5 - to win vs ind, sys #2 - 2 game chase to win vs min or ind.
Mem sys #1 chase to win 1 of next 3. might be a sys 8 play later
LAC NO system plays. 1 unit on them to beat Atl though.

I'll update 1Q plays and non-system plays when I can.
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#44
Posted: 11/24/2012 8:18:06 AM

I have no problem with you counting the win on your record. I really like you system plays and I'm trying to be able to find the plays myself.  But system #4 confuses me.  I thought it was find streaky losers of 6 or more.  Then after the (X) game, if they lose games (A) and (B), chase them two games starting with game (D).

For Dallas this is what I got:

(X) game  11/17 Cleveland (win stops streak)

(A) game 11/19 Golden State (lose)

(B) game 11/21 New York (win)

Since they won the (B) game, I didn't think it would be a play. I'm guessing that I don't system #4 down right.

 

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#45
Posted: 11/24/2012 1:00:26 PM
Akell I switched up the order for the systems.
Sent a friend request.

ADDED PLAY - non-system play 3 game chase fade on Dal + Atl 1.5 units a piece.
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#46
Posted: 11/24/2012 2:23:23 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Air1:



Current Streakers
None

PLAYS!!!!!!!!!!

Dal 2 unit, 2 game chase for them to win. system #2
Dal 1.5 units to win @PHI. system #5
SAC TBD sys #5 - to win vs ind, sys #2 - 2 game chase to win vs min or ind.
Mem sys #1 chase to win 1 of next 3. might be a sys 8 play later
LAC NO system plays. 1 unit on them to beat Atl though.

I'll update 1Q plays and non-system plays when I can.

Air

Doesn;t SYSTEM #4 activate for Sacremento today?

So Fade Sac for 3 games?

6 Loses ATS

11/21 vs LAL - X game

11/23 @ UTAH - W

11/24 vs UTAH - Fade Play

Or since they are playing B2B games it's a NO PLAY?

DG

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#47
Posted: 11/24/2012 5:28:05 PM

I got picking both Sacramento and Dallas to win for tonight, picking both for and against Memphis on the 26th, for Saramento and for Dallas on the 27th (regardless of what happens above), and for Sacramento on the 30th.

I'll be honest, I don't know what the systems are anymore, I'm mostly basing these picks off the first post in the other thread. I'd be willing to make up a spreadsheet with everything on it, but I'm gonna need Air1 to spell them out for me in a single post

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#48
Posted: 11/24/2012 5:38:12 PM

I too am following the systems listed on the original post.  I don't see where Sac. is a play tonight.

(X) game  11/21  LA Lakers (win to stop losing streak)

(A) game  11/23  Utah  (win)

(B) game  tonight Utah

Aren't we suppose to wait for the (C) game to start the chase?

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#49
Posted: 11/24/2012 6:31:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SuperHappyTime:

I got picking both Sacramento and Dallas to win for tonight, picking both for and against Memphis on the 26th, for Saramento and for Dallas on the 27th (regardless of what happens above), and for Sacramento on the 30th.

I'll be honest, I don't know what the systems are anymore, I'm mostly basing these picks off the first post in the other thread. I'd be willing to make up a spreadsheet with everything on it, but I'm gonna need Air1 to spell them out for me in a single post


That is a great idea Super Happy...maybe Air can spell everything out. The systems and backtesting is solid but as far as daily plays etc. it could be way more organized. No offense Air - you were nice enough to show your hard work in the forum its just this thread is confusing as hell. 
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#50
Posted: 11/24/2012 6:32:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by akell09:

I too am following the systems listed on the original post.  I don't see where Sac. is a play tonight.

(X) game  11/21  LA Lakers (win to stop losing streak)

(A) game  11/23  Utah  (win)

(B) game  tonight Utah

Aren't we suppose to wait for the (C) game to start the chase?

Yea, C game for System #3. But I was under some odd impression System #2 could be used for both streaking winners and streaking losers, otherwise all it does is clash with System #1. I dunno, maybe I'm just making SHT up (ba-dum ching!)

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