Therizz's NHL Opening Game Fav 2012-13

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Therizz's NHL Opening Game Fav 2012-13
trychome PM trychome
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Posted: 1/24/2013 1:53:16 PM
Series 2-0
A - 1-1
B - 0-1
C - 1-0
Jattdoit PM Jattdoit
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Posted: 1/24/2013 3:13:35 PM
Any plays today
trychome PM trychome
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Posted: 1/24/2013 6:51:24 PM
A - SJ
Jattdoit PM Jattdoit
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Posted: 1/24/2013 9:07:46 PM
Lets double dip this SJ series! 
SweetDickWormy PM SweetDickWormy
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Posted: 1/25/2013 12:57:25 PM
Tampon Bay the play today?
trychome PM trychome
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Posted: 1/25/2013 1:37:00 PM
Series 3-0
A - 2-1
B - 0-1
C - 1-0

@sweetdick - the system says we should use the line that is closest to closing.  my book is at -127, so its a no go as of now.  i'll check it closer to game time.  play at your own discretion.
SweetDickWormy PM SweetDickWormy
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Posted: 1/25/2013 1:51:48 PM
Thanks trychome.  Like the system and appreciate your help. 
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 1/25/2013 5:20:17 PM

I have Tampa at -130 at the Red Rock so I'm going with it. They have a 5 game home stand with the next 2 games being Philly and Florida, with Winnepeg and NYR to follow. If they get into a double dip situtation I may avoid that last game vs NYR (NYR don't play the night before and are at home the day before that).

Looks like we will have the first double dip situation of the year with SJ at home against Colorado. SJ still has 5 games in a row at home (Van, Ana, Edm, Nash to follow Colo)

 

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 1/25/2013 6:47:13 PM
SJ on Saturday for the start of the double dip.
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Posted: 1/25/2013 6:47:28 PM
SJ on Saturday for the start of the double dip.
trychome PM trychome
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Posted: 1/25/2013 7:35:40 PM
so the covers closing line on tb looks like its going to be -128.  When some of the people decided to move it from -145 to -130 last season, we had a filter.  I think it was either that the covers line never dipped below -130 since opening or the line had to be -130 by closing, i forget.  either way, this game wouldn't qualify so it wont be going in the record, but you should play it if you feel good about it.  I dont know garbage about hockey, so im going to lay off.

as for the double dipping, should i count it towards the record?  if they have 3 or more consecutive games at home, it would count as a new 3 game home stand right?  what do you guys think?
trychome PM trychome
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Posted: 1/25/2013 7:41:49 PM
lol "garbage"
therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 1/25/2013 8:13:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by trychome:

so the covers closing line on tb looks like its going to be -128.  When some of the people decided to move it from -145 to -130 last season, we had a filter.  I think it was either that the covers line never dipped below -130 since opening or the line had to be -130 by closing, i forget.  either way, this game wouldn't qualify so it wont be going in the record, but you should play it if you feel good about it.  I dont know garbage about hockey, so im going to lay off.

as for the double dipping, should i count it towards the record?  if they have 3 or more consecutive games at home, it would count as a new 3 game home stand right?  what do you guys think?


TC,
To my knowledge noone every tested the "double dip".  I know I didn't when I first started this.  I can probably look back at my original databases to check it out.  Either way, I would probably just keep a separate column with the double dip stats as to not confuse the issue depending on how people are playing it.  Good to see people are still benefiting from it.  Good job with keeping up with the plays.  I wish I had more free time to contribute.  I am still playing this and do so with an aggressive labby for money management.


therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 1/25/2013 8:47:43 PM
2009-10 Double Dip Back test : 33 extra wins, 2 chase losses

NHL East 8 wins double dip (only one went to C bet)

NHL West 25-2 double dip (No C bet wins) - losses Calgary and SJ

Tested the double dip if the series qualified based on first game and after the win there was still 3 or more games left in the homestand.  This is the only season I have data for stored as I lost some of my files.  How profitable this angle is probably depends on your MM style.  Also the schedule this year is pretty wacky so I have no idea how this type of thing will translate....




Jattdoit PM Jattdoit
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Posted: 1/25/2013 8:54:14 PM
Thanks Rizz and trychome for all your time and effort.  Much appreciated! 
Jattdoit PM Jattdoit
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Posted: 1/25/2013 8:55:31 PM
@Rizz. Love the new avatar. But Really loved your last. Dam covers new rules. Lol
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 1/25/2013 10:21:15 PM
Therizz, what is average units lost per chase for the way that you bet it? TIA.
therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 1/26/2013 12:20:24 AM
Jattdoit,
I miss the old avatar as well.  I almost got banned because I kept putting it back up thinking there was a glitch before I figured out what was going on...

flwareagle,
That is really tough to answer.  With labouchere management you are spreading the risk among the different A, B, and C level bets.  For example, the recent C bet I made was only for around 2.3U.  My last A bet was for 1.75U.  So the units lost for a series, really depend on how fat your lines are when the loss occurs.  At the same time you recover your losses more quickly.  Regardless of your MM style long losing streaks can really destroy your bankroll.  I use a low base unit relative to my overall bankroll to not extend myself to far for the rough patches.

Jattdoit PM Jattdoit
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Posted: 1/26/2013 3:30:38 PM
NYR A bet ?
therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 1/26/2013 4:18:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jattdoit:

NYR A bet ?


Thats what I have.  SJ as an A for the double dip for those playing that.
trychome PM trychome
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Posted: 1/26/2013 4:39:08 PM
A - NYR

@therizz - glad to see you back! ok so ill keep the double dips out of the official record.  danrules can keep track of it.  just in case anyone is curios, i WILL be including double dips in my personal picks.  i missed SJ though.  had a late night.

and if anyone would like to post the plays when i miss it or its real close to game time without a post from me, feel free to do so.  this isnt a power struggle and i wont feel undermined if you do so. haha.  this is a community! just make sure the pick isnt wrong.
trychome PM trychome
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Posted: 1/26/2013 9:55:09 PM
Series 4-0
A - 3-1
B - 0-1
C - 1-0
Jattdoit PM Jattdoit
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Posted: 1/26/2013 10:32:10 PM
Killer night guys. Lets keep this rolling! 
bruin95 PM bruin95
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Posted: 1/26/2013 10:41:01 PM
Dare we triple-dip San Jose? 
Jattdoit PM Jattdoit
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Posted: 1/26/2013 11:03:45 PM
Triple ? Why not.  Sj hot. Though tread lightly
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