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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NFL Over/Unders 128-0, 2009-2012
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#1
Posted: 10/21/2012 2:23:48 AM

I only back tested through 2009. Simple system. Bet the opposite of week 1 O/U result for each team using up to a 6 game chase. Example: If New Orleans goes Over in week 1, start a chase on the Under. Each team was undefeated for the last 4 years including 2012. Also, very few chases went beyond 2 games. (Count a push as a no game)

Results:

1 gm - 62 wins

2 gm - 49 wins (that's 111 out of 128 in 2 weeks!)

3 gm - 8 wins

4 gm - 6 wins

5 gm - 2 wins

6 gm - 1 win (only 3 chases of 5 or 6 games in 4 years)

Nothing wrong with starting the first few weeks of the NFL season up 32 wins with low juice.  

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#2
Posted: 10/21/2012 11:35:30 AM
Nice..maybe it will work for NBA ,,and/or NCAAB ...
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#3
Posted: 10/21/2012 7:19:57 PM
So you only start this after week 1 and quit after all the teams chases are complete?
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#4
Posted: 10/21/2012 7:30:51 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Riceboi:

So you only start this after week 1 and quit after all the teams chases are complete?

Yes. Since I can't pick a point spread winner to save my life in the NFL, I was trying to think of a way to win 1 unit per team as quickly as possible.

One thing I thought about is in week 2 if you are supposed to bet a team over and their opponent under, it's a no bet. What I would do is stop the chase on the team that hit their O/U as if you did bet on them, then the following week bet on the team that lost as if you bet them the week before and they lost. Hope that makes sense.

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#5
Posted: 10/21/2012 11:01:12 PM
well damn bro you should of posted this before the season started. i cant tail now lol
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#6
Posted: 10/21/2012 11:44:42 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Riceboi:

well damn bro you should of posted this before the season started. i cant tail now lol

LOL, I hear ya. I wish I thoiught of looking for this before the season started. Maybe I'll do a test for the last 7 games of the year.

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#7
Posted: 10/22/2012 1:18:48 AM
add me as a friend. i got an idea dan
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#8
Posted: 10/22/2012 1:56:09 AM

Sent a friend request.

I checked this out for the final 7 weeks but it didn't do as well. It went 127-1 with Tampa the loss in 2009. Also not as many early in the chase wins.

1 gm - 71 wins

2 gm - 20 wins (91 wins vs.111 at start of season chase)

3 gm - 16 wins

4 gm - 7 wins

5 gm - 7 wins

6 gm -  6 wins

1 LOSS (14 chases went at least 5 games compared to 3 at the start of the season chase)

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#9
Posted: 10/22/2012 2:21:58 AM
just confirm it. and i'll pm ya
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#10
Posted: 10/22/2012 12:17:42 PM
Hey Dan24,

I tracked the NFL OOOUUU and all teams hit,  Dallas was the only GM 6 play that hit under this past sunday.

So, at the beginning of an NFL season, would you follow the 6 Game Over Chase and the new one you just implemented?  Or only one or the other?

Thanks
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#11
Posted: 10/22/2012 4:07:43 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by skew8:

Hey Dan24,

I tracked the NFL OOOUUU and all teams hit,  Dallas was the only GM 6 play that hit under this past sunday.

So, at the beginning of an NFL season, would you follow the 6 Game Over Chase and the new one you just implemented?  Or only one or the other?

Thanks

Nice work. I'd think if you did both systems you would end up betting botht he Over and Under on the same team. Not sure how you would avoid that. I would just do one or the other.

Another system that works is betting OOOOOO. Seattle went to game 6 this year, but it looks like this has worked for a few years in a row.

 

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#12
Posted: 10/25/2012 11:43:35 PM
I will remember this for next year, but can you explain if let's say the Bucs went over in week 1, and the Dolphins went under week 1, and played each other week 2, what do you do?
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#13
Posted: 10/26/2012 12:32:37 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by animals26:

I will remember this for next year, but can you explain if let's say the Bucs went over in week 1, and the Dolphins went under week 1, and played each other week 2, what do you do?

In week 2 if you are supposed to bet a team over and their opponent under, it's a no bet. What I would do is stop the chase on the team that hit their O/U as if you did bet on them, then the following week bet on the team that lost as if you bet them the week before and they lost. Hope that makes sense.

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#14
Posted: 10/31/2012 10:15:39 PM
Hey Dan! Looking at the numbers, the final 7 weeks can be profitable if you only play either game 6 (+4.9units) or 2 game chase on 5+6 (+9.6 units) with an average of -110 lines.
Your research was not a total waste..... now the only problem is remembering to play this

I am doing some research on nba overs and unders. Have you tested this system with other sports besides football?
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TVWIN
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#15
Posted: 6/4/2014 12:47:40 PM
ok
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#16
Posted: 8/28/2014 5:58:47 AM
Still working ? What about NCAAF ?
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#17
Posted: 8/29/2014 2:33:56 AM
for 2013 NFL, i see:

A 12
B 12
C 3
D 4

1 loss (win on 8th game)
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#18
Posted: 8/29/2014 8:42:43 AM
Denver hitting the Over every week had to be the loss I'm assuming..
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#19
Posted: 8/29/2014 9:29:50 AM
Ya, Denver was the issue. And they didn't have an under until Week 10. So, it was game 9 not game 8 I believe.
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#20
Posted: 9/4/2014 1:54:15 AM
it was the Broncos, and they had a bye week 9, so it was game 8.
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#21
Posted: 9/5/2014 11:12:49 AM
seattle gb went over next week bet both under?
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#22
Posted: 9/7/2014 4:58:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tommyla:

seattle gb went over next week bet both under?

If you want to play it the way Dan would, Green Bay will not be a play next week because their week 2 opponent went under this week.

Seattle will be a play if San Diego goes over on Monday.
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#23
Posted: 9/9/2014 2:34:57 AM
Anyone posting next week plays?
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#24
Posted: 9/9/2014 8:41:09 AM
Pittsburgh at Baltimore - NO PLAY
Miami at Buffalo - NO PLAY
Jacksonville at Washington - OVER
Dallas at Tennessee - OVER
Arizona at NY Giants - NO PLAY
New England at Minnesota - NO PLAY
New Orleans at Cleveland - UNDER
Atlanta at Cincinnati - NO PLAY
Detroit at Carolina - NO PLAY
St. Louis at Tampa Bay - OVER
Seattle at San Diego - NO PLAY
Houston at Oakland -OVER
NY Jets at Green Bay - NO PLAY
Kansas City at Denver - OVER
Chicago at San Francisco - OVER
Philadelphia at Indianapolis - OVER

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#25
Posted: 9/9/2014 5:10:51 PM

Isn't this chase for every team starting week 2 even if they are playing a team that needs the opposite result in week 2

For example this thurs it's balt (week1 und) vs pitt (wk 1 over)

it doesn't make sense to play both the over and under but if it went over would it make sense to play pitt in week 3 for 2 units to go under. 

 

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