Messages

Forum Index : Systems & Strategies : Messages
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NFL Over/Unders 128-0, 2009-2012
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2681
Location: Nevada
#1
Posted: 10/21/2012 2:23:48 AM

I only back tested through 2009. Simple system. Bet the opposite of week 1 O/U result for each team using up to a 6 game chase. Example: If New Orleans goes Over in week 1, start a chase on the Under. Each team was undefeated for the last 4 years including 2012. Also, very few chases went beyond 2 games. (Count a push as a no game)

Results:

1 gm - 62 wins

2 gm - 49 wins (that's 111 out of 128 in 2 weeks!)

3 gm - 8 wins

4 gm - 6 wins

5 gm - 2 wins

6 gm - 1 win (only 3 chases of 5 or 6 games in 4 years)

Nothing wrong with starting the first few weeks of the NFL season up 32 wins with low juice.  

quote
neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
neilsy25
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 816
Location:
#2
Posted: 10/21/2012 11:35:30 AM
Nice..maybe it will work for NBA ,,and/or NCAAB ...
quote
Riceboi send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Riceboi
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5371
Location:
#3
Posted: 10/21/2012 7:19:57 PM
So you only start this after week 1 and quit after all the teams chases are complete?
quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2681
Location: Nevada
#4
Posted: 10/21/2012 7:30:51 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Riceboi:

So you only start this after week 1 and quit after all the teams chases are complete?

Yes. Since I can't pick a point spread winner to save my life in the NFL, I was trying to think of a way to win 1 unit per team as quickly as possible.

One thing I thought about is in week 2 if you are supposed to bet a team over and their opponent under, it's a no bet. What I would do is stop the chase on the team that hit their O/U as if you did bet on them, then the following week bet on the team that lost as if you bet them the week before and they lost. Hope that makes sense.

quote
Riceboi send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Riceboi
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5371
Location:
#5
Posted: 10/21/2012 11:01:12 PM
well damn bro you should of posted this before the season started. i cant tail now lol
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2681
Location: Nevada
#6
Posted: 10/21/2012 11:44:42 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Riceboi:

well damn bro you should of posted this before the season started. i cant tail now lol

LOL, I hear ya. I wish I thoiught of looking for this before the season started. Maybe I'll do a test for the last 7 games of the year.

quote
Riceboi send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Riceboi
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5371
Location:
#7
Posted: 10/22/2012 1:18:48 AM
add me as a friend. i got an idea dan
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2681
Location: Nevada
#8
Posted: 10/22/2012 1:56:09 AM

Sent a friend request.

I checked this out for the final 7 weeks but it didn't do as well. It went 127-1 with Tampa the loss in 2009. Also not as many early in the chase wins.

1 gm - 71 wins

2 gm - 20 wins (91 wins vs.111 at start of season chase)

3 gm - 16 wins

4 gm - 7 wins

5 gm - 7 wins

6 gm -  6 wins

1 LOSS (14 chases went at least 5 games compared to 3 at the start of the season chase)

quote
Riceboi send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Riceboi
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5371
Location:
#9
Posted: 10/22/2012 2:21:58 AM
just confirm it. and i'll pm ya
quote
skew8 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
skew8
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 123
Location:
#10
Posted: 10/22/2012 12:17:42 PM
Hey Dan24,

I tracked the NFL OOOUUU and all teams hit,  Dallas was the only GM 6 play that hit under this past sunday.

So, at the beginning of an NFL season, would you follow the 6 Game Over Chase and the new one you just implemented?  Or only one or the other?

Thanks
quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2681
Location: Nevada
#11
Posted: 10/22/2012 4:07:43 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by skew8:

Hey Dan24,

I tracked the NFL OOOUUU and all teams hit,  Dallas was the only GM 6 play that hit under this past sunday.

So, at the beginning of an NFL season, would you follow the 6 Game Over Chase and the new one you just implemented?  Or only one or the other?

Thanks

Nice work. I'd think if you did both systems you would end up betting botht he Over and Under on the same team. Not sure how you would avoid that. I would just do one or the other.

Another system that works is betting OOOOOO. Seattle went to game 6 this year, but it looks like this has worked for a few years in a row.

 

quote
animals26 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
animals26
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 385
Location: Utah
#12
Posted: 10/25/2012 11:43:35 PM
I will remember this for next year, but can you explain if let's say the Bucs went over in week 1, and the Dolphins went under week 1, and played each other week 2, what do you do?
quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2681
Location: Nevada
#13
Posted: 10/26/2012 12:32:37 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by animals26:

I will remember this for next year, but can you explain if let's say the Bucs went over in week 1, and the Dolphins went under week 1, and played each other week 2, what do you do?

In week 2 if you are supposed to bet a team over and their opponent under, it's a no bet. What I would do is stop the chase on the team that hit their O/U as if you did bet on them, then the following week bet on the team that lost as if you bet them the week before and they lost. Hope that makes sense.

quote
Air1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Air1
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 907
Location: United States
#14
Posted: 10/31/2012 10:15:39 PM
Hey Dan! Looking at the numbers, the final 7 weeks can be profitable if you only play either game 6 (+4.9units) or 2 game chase on 5+6 (+9.6 units) with an average of -110 lines.
Your research was not a total waste..... now the only problem is remembering to play this

I am doing some research on nba overs and unders. Have you tested this system with other sports besides football?
quote
TVWIN send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
TVWIN
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 368
Location:
#15
Posted: 6/4/2014 12:47:40 PM
ok
quote
QCPL send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
QCPL
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 1
Location:
#16
Posted: 8/28/2014 5:58:47 AM
Still working ? What about NCAAF ?
quote
Forum Index : Systems & Strategies : Messages
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.