Posted: 10/21/2012 12:20:23 AM
Find his posted explanation here
(post # 32): http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101414922&page=2
Here's the explanation from his thread:
Originally Posted by NJPorky:
Ok guys here I go with my 1
time explantion of th system. First off I have been betting sports for
the last 20 years and I stubbled onto this system in the NFL about 8
years ago and have been using it ever since. I don't have the exact
nuimbers but every year it hits around 70-75%. Also as far as posting
the picks I get onto covers and do it when ever I can but usually it is
only for the 1pm games on Sundays as I work evenings and thus are rarely
around for the Monday night or 4pm or Sunday night games to post. But
usually I start the thread every sunday and usually everyone starts to
follow and after a week or so, someone will start posting the plays and
no plays for the games I'm not around for....
The system is this....Let's take the Atlanats @ Kansas City game.
When you woke up this morning and looked at the lines you have seen the
Falcons were favored by 2 and the total on the game was 43. And let's
say you decided you know what I love over the 43 in that game and you
bet $500 over 43 risking $550. Now you sit down and start watching the
game and your loving life at halftime as the score is 20-17 Falcons. You
only need 6.5 more points in the 2H to win $500 and you look and you
see the 2H line on the game has a total of 23. You say to yourself, wow
if they go scoreless in the 2H I'll be sick, what if I bet $500 under 23
2H??? Then I'll be risking $50 to win $1000 if the game lands anywhere
between 43 and 60!!! And if it lands on 43 or 60 exactly I win $500!!!
Wow what a great deal low risk high reward...10x my money!!! WRONG!!!
Whenever there is a 10 point or greater middle between the opening line
and the halftime line it usually dosen't fall in that middle allowing
you to win both sides of the bet. The majority of the time this game is
either going over the 60 or staying under the 43. So now knowing this,
what is more likely?? is it more likely they score more than 23 points
in the 2h or less than 6??? I would say since they scored 37 in the 1H, I
like the more than 23 better, thus I take the over 23 2H.... Now I
won't lie to you sometimes the system is correct and it won't land in
that middle, but I lose because they go and score 3 points total in the
2nd half. It didn't land in the middle just like I thought, I just bet
the wrong side.
Every year I start this thread and the non-believers say it can't be
that easy, it's just coincidence, and they follow and by week #3 it's
one of the most popular and most followed threads on covers.com. All I
know is it works and is profitable each and every week, but you can't
pick and choose what games you want to bet and you can't change the
amount you bet...just select an amount and bet each and every game and
you will profit at the end of the year. It's not going to make you rich.
it's not going to win every week. But at the end of the season it will
be hitting between 70% and 75%. Thus you will show profit and build your
bankroll. I personally use the system and bet 2.5 units each and every
I will be back next Sunday to post the week #2 thread and the 1pm
games and maybe someone will post the Monday night game tomorrow night
here for me. And usually someone becomes a loyal follower and I have
them post my 4pm and sunday nights plays in my thread for me. We'll see
what the 2012 season brings us....anyway good luck to everyone and make
In regards to the spreadsheet, I believe a few may exist. In the thread from the above link, there's one available in post # 140. Other more updated ones may exist but you'd have to locate them. If you discover any modifications which may give a greater winning percentage, please post them here.