In game betting discussion

Forum: Systems & Strategies
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: In game betting discussion
wdtemacg PM wdtemacg
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Posted: 10/19/2012 9:23:47 AM

Been tinkering with getting on both sides of the ML using in game betting. For the most part have had good success with a couple of rough spots where the game only went one way and the odds followed.

I usually jump on the dog's ML pregame and then wait until the favorite's odds decrease in game to the point where I can get on both sides plus money. It doesn't always happen, so sometimes I just have to take what I can get. As I said, I've been hurt very few times where the favorite dominated the game from start to finish and the odds never dropped for me to get the hedge in.

Does anyone else have experience doing this, and if so any insight on protecting myself better when the favorite takes off and won't come back down?

jaime2309 PM jaime2309
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Posted: 10/19/2012 10:21:25 AM
I started using this tactic last year during the NBA playoffs. I would always take the dog ML at the beginning of the game and since we all know that the NBA is a game of runs, the dog is more than likely at one point going to go on a run where they will be up somewhere of 5-8 points and you can jump on the fav at a low ML or ML as a dog. I did this several times last year with good success. The only thing that I noticed is that if you end up taking a dog before the game you have to basically take it at a higher number so you can hedge properly, which means if you dont get a chance to hedge, then you are fucked because you laid 2.5 times your normal bet. Easier to do in the playoffs with less games and more live game lines.

wdtemacg PM wdtemacg
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Posted: 10/19/2012 10:39:55 AM

I agree, and I think that while there are definite advantages in football with points being scored in groups...basketball is a great opportunity since there are such dramatic swings in a game. I can't remember how many times I've seen NBA games change back and forth with runs of 10 or more that could really screw with the ML. Looking forward to that opportunity.

Obviously for me the Monday night game was a blessing then last night I had Arizona St. +280 with little to no relief. Had to hedge with an ATS bet on Oregon in game just to get my money back. ASU's first score didn't drop the ML much (if any) because I think everyone knew it was a fluke.

Thoughts on opportunities in other sports? Baseball, soccer, etc?

jaime2309 PM jaime2309
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Posted: 10/19/2012 11:30:17 AM
Personally, I haven't tried it in other sports besides the NBA. Baseball's lines are sharp and are usually right on. Even when a dog is up, I've seen the lines not move enough to hedge a profit. I'll just stick to basketball on primetime games.
wdtemacg PM wdtemacg
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Posted: 10/20/2012 12:31:31 PM

This morning I had Texas A&M +145 and was able to turn it around nicely after their opening drive by placing an equal bet on LSU @ +150 odds.

Still monitoring Purdue, had them at +668  and am pleased by the opening quarter but the odds still haven't dropped.

wdtemacg PM wdtemacg
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Posted: 10/20/2012 2:31:18 PM

Finally put Ohio St. in at -155 since the goddamn lines won't drop, probably because there's not a lot of faith in Purdue to close this game.

Got a second round of scalping in for TAM/LSU for a little bit more of a gain. Late score before halftime really helped me there.

wdtemacg PM wdtemacg
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Posted: 10/21/2012 12:37:19 PM

Could have collected a really nice pelt in that Purdue game, but glad that I got the opportunity to bail out before garbage got too real in Columbus.

TAM/LSU; killed it.

KSt/WV; I had the cats pregame at +125 so I just let my balls hang out and rode that garbage to victory without hedging.

Baylor/Texas, ND/BYU and Utah/OrSt were all zeroes for me. Never really got to take advantage of the BYU or Utah scores as the lines never came down.

All in all not a bad day, but missed some huge opportunities.

wdtemacg PM wdtemacg
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Posted: 10/21/2012 12:44:46 PM
Today I've got Baltimore +245 and Washington +240. Been using about 10% of my BR for these "bets", if you want to call it that.
wdtemacg PM wdtemacg
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Posted: 10/21/2012 1:01:08 PM
Been wrestling with greed when the dog that I pick goes on a nice run to start the game. The smart move is to hedge and just collect the free money but I want so badly to just ride it out and score big. In the K State game it was obvious what was happening there so it was a bit different.
pazim PM pazim
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Posted: 10/21/2012 1:03:57 PM
I only bet on teams that have good offense and are trailing late in the 4th quarter or if I get huge favorite at good odds. In baseball, you have to wait until the final 2 to 3 innings to get good price, but its works when you are betting against crappy teams. I often bet on good teams that are about to get swept, because they don't get swept that much. Sometimes the other team is up 3-4 runs and you can get the runline at 3 or however many runs they are down by.

wdtemacg PM wdtemacg
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Posted: 10/21/2012 6:26:26 PM

Came out even on both early games. Didn't get a chance to get action in on the Pats/Jets but got in @ +103 for Cincinnati tonight.

wdtemacg PM wdtemacg
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Posted: 10/21/2012 8:43:15 PM

Thinking in the future that for these games that are below a three point spread (like tonight) it would be better to wait until the first score or turnover than to get money in before the game to take advantage of the emotions of that first event...not a world changing observation but that's what I'm thinking.

pazim  I'm shying away from baseball as I'm just getting started with this style of play but I see what you mean

wdtemacg PM wdtemacg
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Posted: 10/21/2012 8:56:22 PM
Nailed down the first scalp tonight for a fairly low profit after the Cincinnati TD in the 1st Q. Started a new one with Pitt +130, we'll see if they can make it back to make it worth my time.
wdtemacg PM wdtemacg
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Posted: 10/22/2012 9:36:06 AM

Was going to put down +240 on the Bengals in game but Pittsburgh seemed to be dominating so I held off. Glad I did.

wdtemacg PM wdtemacg
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Posted: 10/22/2012 9:36:35 AM
Tonight there's Detriot at +245. Hoping we see "Jay Cutler face" early and often.
wdtemacg PM wdtemacg
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Posted: 10/22/2012 11:47:14 PM
Absolutely nothing tonight so I was forced to gamble and hedge with an equal amount on the under at the beginning of the 4th quarter. Just a hell of a game to witness
wdtemacg PM wdtemacg
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Posted: 10/23/2012 10:09:02 PM
141698440-1 10/22/12 10:40am $50.00 $77.50 Pending 10/23/12 8:00pm College Football 101 Arkansas State +155* vs UL Lafayette

 

141880847-1 10/23/12 10:04pm $15.38 $50.00 Pending 10/23/12 8:00pm Live In-Play Football 9102 UL Lafayette +325* vs Arkansas State

wdtemacg PM wdtemacg
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Posted: 10/23/2012 10:12:02 PM
Wanted to wait a bit longer but felt like ULL is starting to turn around with the 3rd quarter TD and ensuing stop on defense. If the game was in Jonesboro I would have let it ride, but I think Broadway can bring them back. And if I'm wrong, well...I win.
Forum: Systems & Strategies
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