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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 4 Half Chase $$$$$
ringored send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#76
Posted: 10/16/2012 10:43:54 PM
WELL DONE!!!
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#77
Posted: 10/16/2012 11:03:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Spreader777:

hey nole!  i got a high-five from hacksaw jim duggan about 25 years ago!  lol



Thats freaking funny and classic. I wonder how many lads on here would have no clue who he is.

Another nice win. How do you do it? Is this a new system for you? OR are you just on a hell of a win streak?
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#78
Posted: 10/17/2012 2:21:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nolemonasses:


Thats freaking funny and classic. I wonder how many lads on here would have no clue who he is.

Another nice win. How do you do it? Is this a new system for you? OR are you just on a hell of a win streak?


the meat of the system is chasing up to three losses martingale style to win a unit (ABCD - 4 bets possible).  the other main factor is that you stick to your pick and pick it again in the 2nd half, if the 1st half lost.  so the A and B bets are 1st and 2nd half.  if both lose, then you have to find a better game and do the same thing again with much more risk for C bet and maybe a D bet.  i believe it would be hard for anyone to even try to pick four half game losers in a row using this strategy!  i estimate that there is a 75% chance of winning within the first two bets A+B.  Same chance goes for the C+D bets.  Those are good odds, but still not much of an edge, if any, to do it blindly! 

i used a similar method on NBA quarters, 1st & 3rd, and did pretty good with it a few years ago, but the system i used to make picks went downhill last year.  i also used jm's systems over the years and did very well at times, but once in a while there would be a cluster of losses, so i stopped using that method.  i only use that as a tool for making personal picks now.

i'm a little over two weeks into this system.  selecting the game to play is still a bit random.  sometimes line movement will attract a play, sometimes injuries, sometimes capping, but mostly logic goes into the pick, which helps alot, but sometimes all the logic in the world won't get it right lol.  anyway, i just go from one time slot to another...  no waiting for days or another week to chase a certain team.  if there is a game today, i will figure out a play for it.  if i am on a C+D bet, i will wait for a solid game i have confidence in.  anybody can do this with their own plays and do pretty good!  if you have a massive bankroll, i suggest going ABCDEFGH martingale style using the same pick 1st/2nd half strategy...  odds of losing are less than 1% for that 8 play entire chase.  compound your "to win" %'s and watch it grow!
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#79
Posted: 10/17/2012 2:48:12 AM
thanks to nolemonasses, i'm going to call this "The Hacksaw System" if the success continues!  it makes perfect sense lol!  thanks nole!!!


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#80
Posted: 10/17/2012 5:07:31 AM
So 1 question, when you bet for example..

Seahawks under 21 points 1h

you wager for example 1 unit. 

You lose the 1h

Then you Wager Seahawks under 21points 2h (Which is the chase)

You win that becomes  1-1? Even money. Why are you posting 20-0? 
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#81
Posted: 10/17/2012 5:08:32 AM
Cause alot of these you chased for same result in the second half, meaning 1st half lost? I'm just trying to understand the system a little better brotha. 
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#82
Posted: 10/17/2012 7:37:11 AM
Because he wagered more on the second half bet to recover his first half loss and profit on the second half.
Also, his record is on each 4-game chase, not the individual games within each chase.

The hacksaw. Now that's f'n funny
Posted using a mobile device.
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#83
Posted: 10/17/2012 8:59:38 PM
21-0 CATS (Chases Against The Spread), +21.25

I count the entire chase as one win or loss.  I don't keep track of my individual pick record within all the chases.  This is how chases are recorded. 



Here is an example of a losing chase:

BET A:  Cowboys+4.5 1st Half -120 (say line is +4, but buy hook)

Cowboys lose 10-20 1st Half -$120 (120 to win 100)

BET B:  Cowboys+1.5 2nd Half -110 (if line is on key#, buy hook)

Cowboys lose 6-17 2nd Half -$242 (242 to win 220)

BET C:  Chiefs+5 1st Half -110 (not key# so no buy on hook)

Chiefs lose 3-20 1st Half -$508.20 (508.20 to win 462)

BET D:  Chiefs-2.5 -120 (was -3, but got hook)

Chiefs lose spread 10-10 -$1212.75 (1212.75 to win 970.20)

Total lost from the chase = -$2034.44

...if juice was -110 each bet then loss would be -1,844.81

Try to avoid extra juice whenever possible, but I rather buy a hook on key numbers to avoid pushing, and maybe losing the next bet.  It'd be better to win with the hook, add the unit, and then start a new chase vs. pushing.



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#84
Posted: 10/18/2012 7:07:11 PM
21-0 CATS, +21.25

(A) SEA/SF UNDER 19 -105 1st half



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#85
Posted: 10/18/2012 8:03:48 PM

Not feeling this one, but wth do i know...
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#86
Posted: 10/18/2012 9:51:25 PM

I wanted to fade you sooooo much! I mean I almost hit confirm on the over 3 times! Then, I thought about these defenses and how SEA held NE to 2 FGs in the 2nd half and I bet under.

Thanks Spreader77!

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#87
Posted: 10/18/2012 9:56:48 PM
Like I said, WTH do I know.
Glad I played it anyway.
Stay toasty

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#88
Posted: 10/18/2012 11:30:53 PM
I've been following your progress pretty much since you started this thread and I gotta say you pick your plays very well! I reckon without the chase system, you'd have a pretty decent record lol. Keep it up and I might start jumping on your plays as well
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#89
Posted: 10/18/2012 11:31:05 PM
thanks guys, i picked it cause the line movement was ok and together the teams combined for a 11-1 1st half under record for the season prior to this game.  only 19 points scored in the whole game lol!



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#90
Posted: 10/19/2012 12:10:02 AM
Seasluts are great against the pass. That's why they beat NE
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#91
Posted: 10/19/2012 10:23:53 AM
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#92
Posted: 10/19/2012 6:12:43 PM
22-0 CATS, +22.25

(A) CUSE-2.5 -125 1st Half

I admit this doesn't look very good.  Cuse is 1-4-1 s/u 1st Half.  Conn is 5-2 ats 1st Half.  Originally, I liked the under the best, but I feel that Cuse can finally beat Conn this year.  Also, I think the game could pop over the numbers since both teams are riding three game under streaks. So if Cuse 1H loses, I play Cuse again 2nd Half.  They better not dilly-dally and lolly-gag too much!  They have a better offense, revenge, and home field.  Come'on Cuse!  No point shaving please! 



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#93
Posted: 10/19/2012 6:20:08 PM
if cuse qb gets injured in 1H, then i won't chase cuse 2nd half... probably would go with under.  just an fyi.  
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#94
Posted: 10/19/2012 9:38:41 PM
23-0 CATS, +23.25 
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#95
Posted: 10/19/2012 9:46:53 PM
Dang, i missed your play for tonight. And another winner on the A.
Unreal. 
Why is this seeming to be so easy for you?
Are you on a an all time hot streak, or do you usually go on A win runs for awhile?
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#96
Posted: 10/19/2012 9:59:35 PM
Lol as I was saying, without the chase, you're doing mighty good anyway
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#97
Posted: 10/19/2012 10:14:00 PM
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#98
Posted: 10/20/2012 2:22:50 AM
yeah i am on a good hot streak i guess.  i been putting alot of time and effort into my research.  it helps me get into the zone, but i still feel like i could lose each time even though i feel confident that it will win.  i've been moosed alot over the years... which has happened mostly in 2nd halfs when i bet on a full game lol. 

i've done flat betting and parlay betting with success at times, but once i get up big, i always struggled with money management.  doing this chase betting helps me relax without doing any silly impulse betting.  it is consistent in producing units right now.  i am looking forward to the continued success.  i will be amazed if it gets to 45-0 or better.  it is due to lose at anytime, so keep that in mind!  but i will keep working hard at it.


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#99
Posted: 10/20/2012 8:52:33 AM
23-0 CATS, +23.25

(A) TEXAS A&M +1.5 1st Half



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#100
Posted: 10/20/2012 10:18:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Spreader777:

23-0 CATS, +23.25

(A) TEXAS A&M +1.5 1st Half




Very nice record!!

2 questions.....First, I noticed that the line movement and betting % was on LSU yet you are taking A & M.   Second, where have you found the best site to get first half ATS on college FB?  Thanks 
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