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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NFL Point Differential Betting System & The Total Dudley YPP Method
DegenGamble send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 10/11/2012 4:13:50 PM

Week 6

*Note subject to change - but intial picks - and as i mentioned i'm only going to post Best Picks and 10 pt Margin plays


Best Picks

TB-3
MIA-3
SF-5

*NYJ-3
*MIN: no line yet

Jets and MIN are unofficial - may scratch them

 

10 pt Margin plays

ARI-4
*BAL-3
*SF-5

According to the numbers - ARI is the only official play - but they looked downright terrible last week - just disgusting.  I made BAL and SF unofficial for now because they were close - like 1-2 points off. 

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#27
Posted: 10/11/2012 7:10:24 PM

Using just the 2012 point differential system, I come up with different plays.

Atlanta and AZ as 10 pt plays and Balt., Min, SF and Houston as 5 point differential qualifying plays.

 

BTW I have Min +2.5 at the Station casinos.

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#28
Posted: 10/11/2012 9:05:43 PM
Danrules - are you using my spreadsheet or are you calculating on your own?
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#29
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:09:50 AM
Your spreadsheet. Updated for week 6, looking at 2012 NFL Pt diff system. Shows Atlanta should be favored by 26.8 right? AZ by 19.
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#30
Posted: 10/13/2012 12:15:19 PM

Danrules - yeah - you're right - not sure how I missed ATL, maybe because I don't like them as a play this weekend - I don't think they will cover 9.5, yes the NFL pt system says they will cover, but some other models I using says they won't.

For the sake of tracking I'll include them

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#31
Posted: 10/13/2012 12:22:13 PM

Week 6


Best Picks

TB-3
MIA-3
SF-5

*NYJ-3

Jets are unofficial

 

10 pt Margin plays

ARI-4
ATL-9.5

*BAL-3
*SF-5

*BAL and SF unofficial because they were close - like 1-2 points off.  I left MIN off because they were just over a 5 pt margin

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#32
Posted: 10/13/2012 2:04:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Danrules - yeah - you're right - not sure how I missed ATL, maybe because I don't like them as a play this weekend - I don't think they will cover 9.5, yes the NFL pt system says they will cover, but some other models I using says they won't.

For the sake of tracking I'll include them

Very good, wasn't sure if I missed something or not. Good luck!

 

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#33
Posted: 10/13/2012 10:13:10 PM
Last three years (only) losers TNF that are favored the next week are 3-0 SU & ATS... looking at ARI here. GL bruddahs!
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#34
Posted: 10/16/2012 11:35:21 AM

Week 6 - Results


Best Picks

TB-3 (WIN)
MIA-3 (PUSH)
SF-5 (LOSS)

*NYJ-3 (WIN)

Jets are unofficial

 

10 pt Margin plays

ARI-4 (LOSS)
ATL-9.5 (LOSS)

*BAL-3 (LOSS)
*SF-5 (LOSS)

So not a terrible day for the BEST PICKS - using the consensus of all models - techincially it went 1-1-1, and that's the way i will record it, but if you bought the hook on the MIA game, and took the Jets like I did - you would have went 3-1

The 10 PT PLAYS are a different story - going 0-4 - ugh.....I will continue to track them - but as mentioned filters are needed, even using the 10 pts instead of 5 - I think it will prove a 50-50 model when all is said and done without additional inputs.

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#35
Posted: 10/16/2012 11:36:32 AM

Overall Results:

WEEK 4,5,6

Best Plays: 6-5-1
10 pt Margin Plays: 5-7-1

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#36
Posted: 10/16/2012 11:37:53 AM

CORRECTION

Overall Results:

WEEK 4,5,6

Best Plays: 6-5-1 (unofficial 1-0)
10 pt Margin Plays: 5-5-1 (unofficial 0-2)

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#37
Posted: 10/16/2012 11:43:25 AM

So I added calculating RPI to the spreadhseet - you can download the latest version here.  it essentially does all the calculations for you and will update the data needed for the calcs when you click the "UPDATE" button - you only need to click that button once a week though - basically every tuesday after the games.

Going to keep an eye on the RPI EDGE and see if can be used as a filter.

If you are unfamiliar with RPI or how to caluclate it - check out the 2 articles below

http://www.ehow.com/how-does_5143295_rpi-calculated.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratings_Percentage_Index

 

Note that I am factoring in home / road wins and losses in my calculations - other methods don't but I figure HF adv in the NFL is important enough to weight the calc.

You can download the updated spreadsheet below

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5dydT9Oe6JbcDNIbFg5Z3h5SFU

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#38
Posted: 10/19/2012 9:29:19 PM

Week 7


Best Picks

CLE+3
NYG-6
BAL+6.5
OAK-4
CHI-5

10 pt Margin plays

CHI-5
TB+2.5

 

Just for the record - some tough games this week.  I am putting in my bets but goin easy on them

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#39
Posted: 10/19/2012 10:34:12 PM

hey Degen did you take the rpi into consideration on any of these plays this week

 

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#40
Posted: 10/20/2012 2:02:58 PM
Burly - not this week, I'm gonna keep an eye on it this week and see how to factor it in the upcoming weeks

Any input is welcome
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#41
Posted: 10/21/2012 4:51:37 PM

looks like if you add the filters a play but have over .500 rpi and have a certain number of rpi higher than their opponent could be a possible idea

would leave only play as CHI -5, do you have previous weeks of rpi numbers with your way of calculating?

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#42
Posted: 10/21/2012 4:52:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Burly:

looks like if you add the filters a play MUST have over .500 rpi and have a certain number of rpi higher than their opponent could be a possible idea

would leave only play as CHI -5, do you have previous weeks of rpi numbers with your way of calculating?

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#43
Posted: 10/21/2012 8:22:33 PM
I don't have previous weeks RPI with the way I'm
Calculating it. Tough week this week - hope CHI covers so it's not a complete
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#44
Posted: 10/21/2012 8:22:46 PM
Disaster
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#45
Posted: 10/23/2012 12:05:47 AM

looks like the filters work

im not really sure how you decide the plays so ill let you post them for next week and then ill put in my two cents

 

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#46
Posted: 10/23/2012 10:51:46 AM

Week 7 - Results


Best Picks

CLE+3 (LOSS)
NYG-6 (LOSS)
BAL+6.5 (LOSS)
OAK-4 (LOSS)
CHI-5 (WIN)

10 pt Margin plays

CHI-5 (WIN)
TB+2.5 (LOSS)

 

Like I mentioned tough week this week.  But maybe implementing the RPI filter as Burley suggested may help the win rate. 

Some interesting observations - every play aside from BAL would have won on some type of tease.

Well i'll put together this weeks plays and see how it goes for another week.

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#47
Posted: 10/23/2012 10:53:07 AM

Overall Results:

WEEK 4,5,6,7

Best Plays: 7-9-1 (unofficial 1-0)
10 pt Margin Plays: 6-6-1 (unofficial 0-2)

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#48
Posted: 10/27/2012 10:57:53 PM

Week 8


Best Picks

SD-3
WAS+4
MIA+3
CHI-7

10 pt Margin plays

CHI-7
ATL+3

RPI and NFL Pt system agree

GB-14
ATL+3
CHI-7
NE-7
SD-3
SEA+1
DEN-6
SF-7

So I added plays where RPI and NFL pt system agree for tracking - going to see how those plays work out.

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#49
Posted: 10/28/2012 2:10:02 AM
do any of the rpi and NFL agree plays have a RPI difference of 50 with the team having a total rpi over .500?
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#50
Posted: 10/28/2012 12:04:32 PM

Burley,

Only GB,ATL,CHI,DEN from the list above have an RPI over 500 and a diff of 50 - and the NFL pt system agrees.

The others are slightly off

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