Teams after TNF (long break) NFL

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Teams after TNF (long break) NFL
Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 9/21/2012 3:06:06 AM

So with TNF every thursday i wondered if there could be a system taken from teams being in this situation

After backchecking through just over a years worth of data heres what ive come up with:

If the home team in the TNF game covers the spread and has a better record than team in next game they are 5-0 SU, also a possible reverse play may come into this as well because so far teams who have a worse record after covering are 0-2 SU

If the home team in the TNF game does not cover the spread in the next game they are 0-4 SU and ATS

ALSO

If the team is the Underdog and loses and are the away team they are 6-0 ATS and SU

upcoming plays for this system are

CHI is an UNDERDOG LOSER AWAY TEAM so they should WIN and COVER

GB was a FAV HOME TEAM WINNER but they have the same record as SEA so its a no play

I will try my best to track plays and post them throught the season, also trying to see if O/U can be worked into this as well

 

glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 9/21/2012 7:55:09 AM
nghia1973 PM nghia1973
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Posted: 9/21/2012 8:43:21 AM
cool
Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 9/21/2012 1:09:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Burly:

So with TNF every thursday i wondered if there could be a system taken from teams being in this situation

After backchecking through just over a years worth of data heres what ive come up with:

If the home team in the TNF game covers the spread and has a better record than team in next game they are 5-0 SU, also a possible reverse play may come into this as well because so far teams who have a worse record after covering are 0-2 SU

If the home team in the TNF game does not cover the spread in the next game they are 0-4 SU and ATS

ALSO

If the team IN THE THF GAME  is the Underdog and loses and are the away team they are 6-0 ATS and SU IN THE NEXT GAME

upcoming plays for this system are

CHI WAS an UNDERDOG LOSER AWAY TEAM so they should WIN and COVER

GB was a FAV HOME TEAM WINNER but they have the same record as SEA so its a no play

I will try my best to track plays and post them throught the season, also trying to see if O/U can be worked into this as well

 

SORRY IF THAT CONFUSED ANYONE WROTE IT AFTER A LATE NIGHT

Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 9/21/2012 1:09:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Burly:

So with TNF every thursday i wondered if there could be a system taken from teams being in this situation

After backchecking through just over a years worth of data heres what ive come up with:

If the home team in the TNF game covers the spread and has a better record than team in next game they are 5-0 SU, also a possible reverse play may come into this as well because so far teams who have a worse record after covering are 0-2 SU

If the home team in the TNF game does not cover the spread in the next game they are 0-4 SU and ATS

ALSO

If the team IN THE THF GAME  is the Underdog and loses and are the away team they are 6-0 ATS and SU IN THE NEXT GAME

upcoming plays for this system are

CHI WAS an UNDERDOG LOSER AWAY TEAM so they should WIN and COVER

GB was a FAV HOME TEAM WINNER but they have the same record as SEA so its a no play

I will try my best to track plays and post them throught the season, also trying to see if O/U can be worked into this as well

 

SORRY IF THAT CONFUSED ANYONE WROTE IT AFTER A LATE NIGHT

hardyvault PM hardyvault
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Posted: 9/21/2012 6:16:36 PM
clear as mud, you trend finding stud... once again, Burly, down time vs analytical
Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 9/23/2012 5:34:31 PM

CHI win and cover

i will continue to post under this thread

twodigitz PM twodigitz
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Posted: 9/24/2012 6:29:31 PM
Nice find, wish you the best of luck!
Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 9/24/2012 7:03:17 PM

ive put all the information into a spreadsheet and with two years plus the plays so far this season

ADDING: GB ML

vi3t4lif3 PM vi3t4lif3
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Posted: 9/24/2012 7:16:03 PM

keep up the good work burly..

Highly appreciated

Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 9/25/2012 12:38:44 AM

wow just wow

that finish was just bs

GB should have won that game

 

hardyvault PM hardyvault
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Posted: 9/27/2012 12:53:07 PM
with a two year back check, including games played on Thanksgiving, and looking at TNF teams the following week with ten days to prepare...

TNF winners the next week are 12-6 SU & 10-7-1 ATS
TNF winners & favored the next week are 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS
TNF losers the next week are 9-9 SU & 12-5-1 ATS
TNF losers & favored the next week are 3-0 SU & ATS
Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 9/28/2012 4:21:21 PM
Hardy I've broken it down even further and have three years data almost all entered into a spreadsheet I will post plays for this week before kickoff. I will include ATS or ML and O/U plays

I have also started looking into teams following off of MNF and it seems like situations are close to the TNF trends but will continue to collect data and double check
Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 9/29/2012 2:38:56 AM

If NYG close as a underdog: Play NYG ML or ATS

Also NYG Over 66% chance of hitting over 47

CAR Over 75% chance of hitting over 48.5

Overs are what they are, the % is enough to show profit over long term.

Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 9/29/2012 12:27:27 PM

also working on Teams after MNF

plays for this week:

GB ML GB Over

SEA game has no plays

Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 9/29/2012 12:55:20 PM
systems also says that NO should cover +9 but the Saints are a mess so that play is up to you
hardyvault PM hardyvault
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Posted: 9/29/2012 2:10:05 PM
Glad our intel is lining up. I'm on the G-men & Packers with you, plus the overs...
Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 10/1/2012 12:41:42 PM

2012 Record (posted plays)

ML: 2-2 (includes GB MNF "loss")

ATS: 2-0-1

O/U: 2-1

bulichm PM bulichm
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Posted: 10/3/2012 4:17:27 PM
Good info. Thanks for posting.
Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 10/5/2012 11:53:20 PM

Play KC ML and ATS and under

only one previous play for this play so play with some caution

No previous plays for Cle/Nyg game but would lean CLE +9.5

 

Rusfan PM Rusfan
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Posted: 10/7/2012 5:18:48 AM

Hi Burly,

Can you please specify on the background for the KC play today?

Thank you,

Appreciate your work

Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 10/7/2012 1:02:43 PM
all plays depend on TNF outcome and if TNF team is ud or fav in second game
MoneyHugger PM MoneyHugger
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Posted: 10/7/2012 4:57:51 PM
KC ATS!!!
Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 10/8/2012 2:09:52 AM

2012 Record (posted plays)

ML: 2-3 (includes GB MNF "loss")

ATS: 3-0-1

O/U: 3-1

Burly PM Burly
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Posted: 10/8/2012 3:06:00 AM

For week 6

STL game has no plays with high %

If ARI closes as FAV: Play ARI ML and BUF ATS and over

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