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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: O/U System
CannedGoods
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#26
Posted: 8/15/2012 12:39:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

CG, how are you feeling about an over tomorrow with Doc on the mound?


As they say, play the system...don't let the system play you.

PHI/MIA C game tomorrow for the over.
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#27
Posted: 8/15/2012 10:44:48 AM
Well I guess the good news is the over should be around 7.

Let's hope for a 6-2 score ;)
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#28
Posted: 8/15/2012 1:12:45 PM
Couldn't be off to a worst start.  Loss #1 staring us in the face.
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#29
Posted: 8/15/2012 1:15:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95:

Couldn't be off to a worst start.  Loss #1 staring us in the face.


Just wait till the bullpen comes in!!

Last night the ARI/STL game went scoreless the first 3, score ended 8-2.  Have faith!!
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#30
Posted: 8/15/2012 1:30:47 PM
We have a run!!!
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#31
Posted: 8/15/2012 3:04:45 PM
They made you sweat, but there it is. Over!!!!
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CannedGoods
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#32
Posted: 8/15/2012 3:05:20 PM
AUSTIN KEARNSSSS BABYY YEAAHHHHH PAYIN MY WAGES WOOOO OVER HITS! SYSTEM STAYS PERFECT! AND THAT'S THE BALL GAMEEEE


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#33
Posted: 8/15/2012 3:06:04 PM
Kearns!!!! Didn't even know he was still in the league
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#34
Posted: 8/15/2012 3:07:47 PM
Now it's just getting ugly....
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#35
Posted: 8/15/2012 3:09:38 PM
What I like is the low juice on the chase - most of the time it's 120 and below - sometime even +
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CannedGoods
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#36
Posted: 8/15/2012 3:11:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

What I like is the low juice on the chase - most of the time it's 120 and below - sometime even +


I know!!  Today I paid I think -113 for over 7...No more -250!! Haha
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#37
Posted: 8/16/2012 6:56:50 AM
Nice hit yesterday. If I am understanding this system right, we should be on Phi/Mil over and TB/LAA under today.

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#38
Posted: 8/16/2012 11:42:30 AM
Very nice CG I really like your system! GL

keep posting!
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#39
Posted: 8/16/2012 2:39:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

Nice hit yesterday. If I am understanding this system right, we should be on Phi/Mil over and TB/LAA under today.



Yes.  PHI/MIL qualifies under both systems, TB/LAA ALMOST qualifies under both...qualifies under V2 but misses V1 by 0.3%...cutoff is 53, LAA is currently at 52.7 overall.  I'm confident the U will hit though, LAA has only has gone 33-2 for series this year with at least one U, the two losses came against two 50/50 teams in TOR and most recently CLE.  Would be asinine to see all 4 games in the TB/LAA series go over with each teams respective arsenal of starting pitchers.  Both series are 4 gamers so tread lightly...
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#40
Posted: 8/16/2012 2:49:38 PM
Also, I'd like to point out that while I haven't done a complete backtest of this system so far this year, I have found a couple of losses earlier on in the season.  Our saving grace has been that these teams, while both having high U%, one had an EXTREMELY high U%...the one series CIN/PIT (I think in June?) went over all three times, but PIT was clipping at a ridiculous 68%.  In May, TEX and BAL went over four times in their series, but one of the teams, I think it was TEX was clipping at a remarkable 64% at the time.  No team has ever finished above 61% for the season for a particular total.  Highest is like 60.5ish.  Sooo to filter it out, anything above 64% is basically a "no play", anything between 61% and 64% should be a "danger zone"...Tampa Bay had all unders against SEA and is now clipping at a 61.5%.  They'll likely regress at some point.  I don't think it should come this series, but just giving an early heads up to my followers.  Buyer beware.

Sorry for the essay lol just wanna explain myself as clearly and concisely as possible so that there's no confusion!

Let's make some
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#41
Posted: 8/16/2012 5:03:59 PM
incredibly simple & great system, CC. Just wondering if you've looked at 4 GM series in the same way we play the RPI system?  'A' GM winner, then treat the next games as a 3 GM series.

I'm currently checking the NFL for the past 3 seasons to see if we might use a similar system for football. GL
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#42
Posted: 8/16/2012 5:18:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hardyvault:

incredibly simple & great system, CC. Just wondering if you've looked at 4 GM series in the same way we play the RPI system?  'A' GM winner, then treat the next games as a 3 GM series.


Yeahhh unfortunately doesn't carry over as well.  Again, haven't backtested it completely but there's been losses.  Infact first series I tracked there was an A game win with the under, followed by 3 overs.  No real way to filter it out either, both teams fell into both systems.
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#43
Posted: 8/16/2012 10:55:59 PM
This Philly game is starting to piss me off.
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#44
Posted: 8/16/2012 11:22:49 PM
Why - we just cashed ;)
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#45
Posted: 8/16/2012 11:24:39 PM
Big cash. Looking scary in LAA.
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#46
Posted: 8/16/2012 11:26:17 PM
Lets hope TB/LAA under holds....
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#47
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:04:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Lets hope TB/LAA under holds....

Both of these games are eerily similar.  Both reaching the breaking point in the Top of the 5th.  Gonna take a minor miracle for this game to stay under, though.
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#48
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:49:00 AM
Whew!!  
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#49
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:51:08 AM
Wow - held on by 1/2 a run - cant cut it any closer than that
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#50
Posted: 8/17/2012 1:10:00 AM
By the skin if our teeth or thehair on our chin... Take your pick.
Looks like Det u and Cin u for tomorrow.

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