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[Systems & Strategies] Topic: NFL Preseason ATS Marty Chase |
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nghia1973 |
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#51 Posted: 8/24/2012 12:07:58 AM 
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jonnymega |
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#52 Posted: 8/24/2012 7:23:54 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by nghia1973: TB already lost last week to TEN...that should be a winner already
You're totally right. Thanks for the heads up, dude.
I'll add that to the totals later today
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jonnymega |
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#53 Posted: 8/24/2012 2:38:10 PM
System Rec: 26-0, +23 units
Overall Rec: 26-19-2
Bonus Plays: 9-6
Top 16 to win 1 Game ATS -
1 NYG - cashed A game
2 NE - lost A, B game, NEXT: @ TAM tonite!
3 GB - cashed C game
4 BAL - cashed A game
5 SF - cashed A game
6 HOU cashed A game
7 PHI - cashed A game
8 PIT - lost A game, NEXT - @BUF sat 8/25 (B game)
9 DET - cashed B game
10 DEN- cashed A game
11 CHI - cashed B game
12 ATL - lost A, B game, NEXT - @MIA tonite!
13 NO - cashed A game
14 DAL - cashed A game
15 SD - cashed A game
16 CIN - cashed A game
Bottom 16 to lose 1 Game ATS -
1 KC - cashed B game
2 TEN - cashed A game
3 ARI - cashed A game
4 NYJ - cashed A game
5 CAR - cashed A game
6 SEA - lost A, B game, NEXT @KC tonite!
7 BUF - cashed B game
8 TB - cashed B game
9 WAS - cashed A game
10 OAK - cashed A game
11 MIA - cashed A game
12 JAX - cashed A game
13 STL - cashed A game
14 CLE - lost A, B game, NEXT - PHI tonite!
15 MIN - cashed A game
16 IND - lost A, B game, NEXT - @WAS sun 8/25
6 teams remain. 4 play tonite. There are also 3 bonus plays.
To win 1 game ATS
(C Game) ATL -3
(C Game) NE -7
To lose 1 game ATS
(C Game) SEA -3 (take KC)
(C Game) CLE +4 (take PHI)
Bonus Plays:
PHI +4
ATL -3
NE -7
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jonnymega |
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#54 Posted: 8/24/2012 2:40:23 PM
Actually, the above should read:
System Rec: 26-0, +26 units
Overall Rec: 26-19-2
Bonus Plays: 9-6
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jonnymega |
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#55 Posted: 8/25/2012 9:07:46 AM
System Rec: 28-0, +28 units
Overall Rec: 28-21-2
Bonus Plays: 11-7
Top 16 to win 1 Game ATS -
1 NYG - cashed A game
2 NE - lost A, B, C game, NEXT - @NYG wed 8/29
3 GB - cashed C game
4 BAL - cashed A game
5 SF - cashed A game
6 HOU cashed A game
7 PHI - cashed A game
8 PIT - lost A game, NEXT - @BUF sat 8/25 (B game)
9 DET - cashed B game
10 DEN- cashed A game
11 CHI - cashed B game
12 ATL - cashed C game
13 NO - cashed A game
14 DAL - cashed A game
15 SD - cashed A game
16 CIN - cashed A game
Bottom 16 to lose 1 Game ATS -
1 KC - cashed B game
2 TEN - cashed A game
3 ARI - cashed A game
4 NYJ - cashed A game
5 CAR - cashed A game
6 SEA - lost A, B, C game, NEXT - OAK thur 8/30
7 BUF - cashed B game
8 TB - cashed B game
9 WAS - cashed A game
10 OAK - cashed A game
11 MIA - cashed A game
12 JAX - cashed A game
13 STL - cashed A game
14 CLE - cashed C game
15 MIN - cashed A game
16 IND - lost A, B game, NEXT - @WAS sun 8/25
We are down to 4 teams now with two playing today. Here's the final four -
To win a game ATS
NE - lost A, B, C game, NEXT - @NYG wed 8/29
PIT - lost A game, NEXT - @BUF sat 8/25 (B game)
To lose a game ATS
SEA - lost A, B, C game, NEXT - OAK thur 8/30
IND - lost A, B game, NEXT - @WAS sun 8/25
As you recall, PIT is a B game in week 3 because they pushed with PHI in week 1. You may also remember that this system's goal is to make 32 units with every chase hitting. A 4-game chase loss is equivalent to about 18.5 units at -110 so, as you can see, we can afford to lose almost 2 chases. We already have 2 D games lined up for next week with NE and SEA. Hopefully we can cash out PIT and IND today.
To win 1 game ATS
(C Game) PIT -2.5
To lose 1 game ATS
(C Game) IND +3.5 (take WAS)
There are 3 bonus plays for today!
Bonus Plays:
PIT -2.5
DET -3
DAL -5.5
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jonnymega |
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#56 Posted: 8/26/2012 10:49:29 AM
System Rec: 30-0, +30 units
Overall Rec: 30-21-2
Bonus Plays: 12-9
Top 16 to win 1 Game ATS -
1 NYG - cashed A game
2 NE - lost A, B, C game, NEXT - @NYG wed 8/29
3 GB - cashed C game
4 BAL - cashed A game
5 SF - cashed A game
6 HOU cashed A game
7 PHI - cashed A game
8 PIT - cashed B game
9 DET - cashed B game
10 DEN- cashed A game
11 CHI - cashed B game
12 ATL - cashed C game
13 NO - cashed A game
14 DAL - cashed A game
15 SD - cashed A game
16 CIN - cashed A game
Bottom 16 to lose 1 Game ATS -
1 KC - cashed B game
2 TEN - cashed A game
3 ARI - cashed A game
4 NYJ - cashed A game
5 CAR - cashed A game
6 SEA - lost A, B, C game, NEXT - OAK thur 8/30
7 BUF - cashed B game
8 TB - cashed B game
9 WAS - cashed A game
10 OAK - cashed A game
11 MIA - cashed A game
12 JAX - cashed A game
13 STL - cashed A game
14 CLE - cashed C game
15 MIN - cashed A game
16 IND - cashed C game
Only 2 teams now remain.
To win a game ATS
NE - lost A, B, C game, NEXT - @NYG wed 8/29
To lose a game ATS
SEA - lost A, B, C game, NEXT - OAK thur 8/30
Only 2 teams now remain. No plays or bonus plays today.
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jonnymega |
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#57 Posted: 8/29/2012 11:43:18 AM
System Rec: 30-0, +30 units
Overall Rec: 30-21-2
Bonus Plays: 12-9
Top 16 to win 1 Game ATS -
1 NYG - cashed A game
2 NE - lost A, B, C game, NEXT - @NYG wed 8/29
3 GB - cashed C game
4 BAL - cashed A game
5 SF - cashed A game
6 HOU cashed A game
7 PHI - cashed A game
8 PIT - cashed B game
9 DET - cashed B game
10 DEN- cashed A game
11 CHI - cashed B game
12 ATL - cashed C game
13 NO - cashed A game
14 DAL - cashed A game
15 SD - cashed A game
16 CIN - cashed A game
Bottom 16 to lose 1 Game ATS -
1 KC - cashed B game
2 TEN - cashed A game
3 ARI - cashed A game
4 NYJ - cashed A game
5 CAR - cashed A game
6 SEA - lost A, B, C game, NEXT - OAK thur 8/30
7 BUF - cashed B game
8 TB - cashed B game
9 WAS - cashed A game
10 OAK - cashed A game
11 MIA - cashed A game
12 JAX - cashed A game
13 STL - cashed A game
14 CLE - cashed C game
15 MIN - cashed A game
16 IND - cashed C game
Alright. Week 4. One game tonight and one game tomorrow and that's it. If we lose both we finish the system down 7 units. If we win one of the two we end the system up 12.5 units. And if we win both games we cash all 32 units.
Today's play:
To win 1 game ATS
(D Game) NE -1
Bonus Play:
DAL -2.5
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jonnymega |
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#58 Posted: 8/30/2012 12:13:09 PM
System Rec: 30-1, +13.55 units
Overall Rec: 30-22-2
Bonus Plays: 13-9
Top 16 to win 1 Game ATS -
1 NYG - cashed A game
2 NE - lost chase
3 GB - cashed C game
4 BAL - cashed A game
5 SF - cashed A game
6 HOU cashed A game
7 PHI - cashed A game
8 PIT - cashed B game
9 DET - cashed B game
10 DEN- cashed A game
11 CHI - cashed B game
12 ATL - cashed C game
13 NO - cashed A game
14 DAL - cashed A game
15 SD - cashed A game
16 CIN - cashed A game
Bottom 16 to lose 1 Game ATS -
1 KC - cashed B game
2 TEN - cashed A game
3 ARI - cashed A game
4 NYJ - cashed A game
5 CAR - cashed A game
6 SEA - lost A, B, C game, NEXT - OAK tonite
7 BUF - cashed B game
8 TB - cashed B game
9 WAS - cashed A game
10 OAK - cashed A game
11 MIA - cashed A game
12 JAX - cashed A game
13 STL - cashed A game
14 CLE - cashed C game
15 MIN - cashed A game
16 IND - cashed C game
Last game. And we need to win this one for the series to show a profit. Finally, tonight looks like a face off between tier 1 teams and tier 2 teams so there's a ton of bonus plays.
Today's plays:
To lose 1 game ATS
(D Game) SEA -6.5 (take OAK)
Bonus Plays:
ATL +3
PHI -4
HOU -3.5
DET -3.5
GB +1.5
NO +4
CIN +3
PIT -3.5
BAL +5
CHI +3.5
DEN +2.5
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jonnymega |
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#59 Posted: 8/31/2012 11:48:53 AM
System Rec: 30-2, -4.9 units
Overall Rec: 30-23-2
Bonus Plays: 19-13-1
Top 16 to win 1 Game ATS -
1 NYG - cashed A game
2 NE - lost chase
3 GB - cashed C game
4 BAL - cashed A game
5 SF - cashed A game
6 HOU cashed A game
7 PHI - cashed A game
8 PIT - cashed B game
9 DET - cashed B game
10 DEN- cashed A game
11 CHI - cashed B game
12 ATL - cashed C game
13 NO - cashed A game
14 DAL - cashed A game
15 SD - cashed A game
16 CIN - cashed A game
Bottom 16 to lose 1 Game ATS -
1 KC - cashed B game
2 TEN - cashed A game
3 ARI - cashed A game
4 NYJ - cashed A game
5 CAR - cashed A game
6 SEA - lost chase
7 BUF - cashed B game
8 TB - cashed B game
9 WAS - cashed A game
10 OAK - cashed A game
11 MIA - cashed A game
12 JAX - cashed A game
13 STL - cashed A game
14 CLE - cashed C game
15 MIN - cashed A game
16 IND - cashed C game
Well, that does it for this system. We lost our last two chases and ended up -4.9 units. On a positive note, the bonus plays went 6-4-1 last night to make the final season record for those plays 19-13-1.
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Riceboi |
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#60 Posted: 9/4/2012 5:03:31 AM
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bruin95 |
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#61 Posted: 9/4/2012 11:24:23 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:
wow that sucks that just the 2 losing chases made you negative units. seems like a success with all those wins, guess not.
This was a chase system, and it was already predetermined that only one loss could be afforded if you wanted to make a profit. That is the number one problem with chase systems. You pretty much need to be perfect to make any money. Interestingly enough I stated, at the beginning of this thread, that teams like NE would be a problem because they simply do not care about preseason results. Of course, NE was the only one of the "Top Teams" not to cover. |
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jonnymega |
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#62 Posted: 9/5/2012 7:11:59 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95:
This was a chase system, and it was already predetermined that only one loss could be afforded if you wanted to make a profit. That is the number one problem with chase systems. You pretty much need to be perfect to make any money. Interestingly enough I stated, at the beginning of this thread, that teams like NE would be a problem because they simply do not care about preseason results. Of course, NE was the only one of the "Top Teams" not to cover.
I'm glad you chimed in, bro. You totally called it. I gotta give you props.
Though the system lost overall, it was worth the few units it cost me since we did find a system for picking NFL preseason ATS winners. Thanks for checking in.
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jonnymega |
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#63 Posted: 9/5/2012 7:16:29 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:
wow that sucks that just the 2 losing chases made you negative units. seems like a success with all those wins, guess not.
Each chase equaled -18.25u or some garbage like that so, yeah, it lost. I think it can be nailed with the right filters.
Next year.
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