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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB Super Systems
bruin95 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#151
Posted: 7/21/2012 9:28:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:

I agree with you bruin and the Mets seem to be my BR killer this year but then again, I may have to give them credit for almost a comeback last night and a while ago. I think that the Dodgers are just too much for them.


They had no problems beating the Dodgers in LA, but you have to look at the current situation when considering these system plays.  You can't be throwing money at a team that's in full "crash and burn" mode and think you going to come out ahead.
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#152
Posted: 7/21/2012 9:30:02 PM
Speaking of crash and burn, Clev and Bos are self destructing.
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#153
Posted: 7/22/2012 11:56:41 AM

Yesterday's Plays

System #4 – Dominant Team Over Last 3 Years

CLE (B) - LOST

BOS (B) - LOST
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#154
Posted: 7/22/2012 12:04:51 PM

Since tracking started on 7/2

Record: 31-7

Units: +14 units

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#155
Posted: 7/22/2012 12:07:23 PM
Tough series - we won 4 series and lost 4 series - for a loss of -5.1 units.

No plays until next series.


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#156
Posted: 7/22/2012 5:57:47 PM

DG, just curious, what does the * mean next to the series letter in the super systems spreadsheet?  It appears on some games and have been wondering what it means.

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#157
Posted: 7/22/2012 6:40:16 PM
1 star is a 4 game series / 2 stars is a 2 game series
Posted using a mobile device.
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#158
Posted: 7/23/2012 12:13:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Tough series - we won 4 series and lost 4 series - for a loss of -5.1 units.

No plays until next series.



Shouldn't the "official" record be 5-3?  4 "A" game wins + COL win in the "B" game.  I know you weren't playing COL, but they were an official chase team, though.
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#159
Posted: 7/23/2012 10:26:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95:


Shouldn't the "official" record be 5-3?  4 "A" game wins + COL win in the "B" game.  I know you weren't playing COL, but they were an official chase team, though.


Well - I want the record to tie to the Units W/L - I mean record really does not matter - it's really about how many units you win or lose - using the current betting model of chasing to win 1 unit plus whatever you lost in the the previous game.

So technically you're right from a record perspective - but since i'm not counting COL as a W - and counting it as a loss - from a unit perspective - i'm gonna keep it as a L in the record as well.

But good catch Bruin - the goal is to adapt, improve, and win - so all input is welcome.
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#160
Posted: 7/23/2012 2:16:36 PM
Ok guys - with this weekend's beating - I have added both the pitching filter that is used in system 1 to all the systems - as well as the filter where we don't bet on under .475 teams for system #4.

Now - I am going to list the official plays - but i am a bit conflicted - since I am playing multiple systems where it says we should play a team - that we are forced to lay off of due to this systems filters.
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#161
Posted: 7/23/2012 2:19:29 PM

Today's Plays

System #1 – Dominant Home team

ARI (A)

System #4 – Dominant Team Over Last 3 Years

LAA (A)

System #6 – RPI Hybrid

SF (A)


Note:

LAA is listed under system #4 and system #6
ARI is listed under systems #1, #4 and #6

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#162
Posted: 7/23/2012 2:31:27 PM
Here is some color commentary on why we are laying off the following teams for game #1 even though they are listed as system plays in the spreadsheet:

PIT - CHC has the pitching advantage here......but I really want to bet them.  They are a system play in B2W's system, and they are hot right now and CHC is not. ....I play this one

TEX - is listed under system #1 and #4 - it says to lay off the game due to the pitching matchup - Doubront vs Feldman.  But BOS just got swept AT HOME - against TOR minus Bautista....So how good can their pitching be!!! - and it's a play in CKP22 Home system...I may play this one.

MIN - is off due to record - they are below .475.  I really don't mind laying off this - but they are a DOG in this matchup - there may be value flat betting them here.  They have a better pitcer going and they are hotter than CWS right now.  I am so confused

STL - is listed under system #4 and #5 - they got swept by LAD last time around. This is probably the only game i'm not angry about laying off of.  LAD have the better pitcher going today



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#163
Posted: 7/23/2012 2:34:33 PM
Updated - forgot CIN

Today's Plays

System #1 – Dominant Home team

ARI (A)

System #4 – Dominant Team Over Last 3 Years

LAA (A)

CIN (A)

System #6 – RPI Hybrid

SF (A)


Note:

LAA
is listed under system #4 and system #6
ARI
is listed under systems #1, #4 and #6
CIN - only has a slight pitching disadvantage - plus they are hotter than HOU right now - executive decision
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#164
Posted: 7/23/2012 11:45:16 PM
Good call on the adjustments DG. Sometimes you do have to do a little handicapping.
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#165
Posted: 7/24/2012 1:38:07 AM
I passed up on the Dbacks and they won.
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#166
Posted: 7/24/2012 10:53:35 AM
So the good news is we went 4-0 yesterday

And we can now play PIT as they qualify and have the pitching advantage.

As for the bad news......we can't play TEX since they won their "A" game - and they don't have the pitching advantage.  And even though STL fell off the spreadsheet - it would have been a play if they had the pitching advantage - but the Dodgers clearly have it with Kershaw.  So we missed out on a couple plays.  But I'll take 4-0 over 5-2 any day
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#167
Posted: 7/24/2012 10:55:09 AM

Today's Plays

System #3 – Dominant Home team

PIT (A)




Note:

PIT
is listed under system #3 and system #6

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#168
Posted: 7/24/2012 10:59:01 AM
And for the color commentary on the spreadsheet.

LAA - we won our "A" game so we are off the chase.
WAS - qualified for system #1 today but didn't yesterday - but they won yesterday - so we can't play them.
TEX - unfortunately won yesterday - and they don't have the pitching advantage today so we are off them.
MIN - again we are off because we don't play sub .475 teams.
CWS - Appeared on the spreadsheet today - but they won their "A" game with MIN - and since MIN is also a conflicting play - it's a NO PLAY
ARI - we won our "A" game so we are off the series.
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#169
Posted: 7/24/2012 2:00:07 PM
GO PIRATES !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#170
Posted: 7/25/2012 10:41:57 AM

Yesterday's Plays

System #3 – Dominant Home team

PIT (A) - LOSS




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#171
Posted: 7/25/2012 10:51:12 AM

So I am not going to chase PIT for a "B" game.  PIT is up against Dempster today and obviously don't have the favorable pitching matchup.

I would rather just take an "A" game loss and make a profit for the series - rather than chase and possibly lose all profit for the series.

So we went 4-1 for the series - winning 4 units and losing 1.8 units.  So profit of 2.2 units.

Since tracking started on 7/2

Record: 35-8

Units: +16.2 units

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#172
Posted: 7/25/2012 10:58:58 AM

on an interesting side note - if we played the series without a pitching filter - and played TEX, PIT, STL for both A and B games - we would have went

6-1 with a unit profit of .14

So we made a good call laying off a few games - even though we would have gained a few couple of wins - we would have incurred big losses - eating up the unit profit.

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#173
Posted: 7/25/2012 11:07:39 AM
are there any plays for today then....just started following the system and the concept has me hooked so far
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#174
Posted: 7/25/2012 11:53:44 AM
No Plays Today
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#175
Posted: 7/26/2012 10:57:10 AM

Today's Plays

System #1 – Dominant Home team

WAS (A)

System #4 – Dominant Team Over Last 3 Years

ARI (A)

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