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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB Super Systems
CannedGoods send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#101
Posted: 7/18/2012 1:07:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:



You are right on the money CG


*ATL - BTW for those who took ATL as an "A" bet - it is still you're option to take ATL and a "B" bet.



Does your system properly account for system #5?  I only ask bc CHC got swept by MIA in April, there's currently a 23 point diff in RPI, but that woulda been smaller before yesterday.  If you look at 2012 results on the betting guide website, it shows yesterday as an A game loss for system 5....either they're wrong or we are...
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#102
Posted: 7/18/2012 1:34:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CannedGoods:



Does your system properly account for system #5?  I only ask bc CHC got swept by MIA in April, there's currently a 23 point diff in RPI, but that woulda been smaller before yesterday.  If you look at 2012 results on the betting guide website, it shows yesterday as an A game loss for system 5....either they're wrong or we are...


Yeah CG - not sure if system #5 is properly configured in my spreadsheet - at least it hasn't produced any plays that meet the filters - so either my filters are wrong or the website adjusted their filters - i'm going to double check that.
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#103
Posted: 7/18/2012 1:41:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CannedGoods:

In addition ATL is kinda "optional" again as Vogelsong >>>>>>>> Minor, pitching isn't supposed to matter for System 4 though...


Yup - right again CG.  Mattymeach brought up the same thing.  Technically, system #4 does not look at pitching matchups like system #1.

I think going forward if a play is listed for any system - at the START of the series that there needs to be a pitching edge or equal matchup or else we skip the game and look at game 2.

What do you think?
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#104
Posted: 7/18/2012 2:28:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:



What do you think?


Tbh I dunno.  I like betting trends, either "league-wide" or "good team beats bad team".  I hate when systems get too subjective bc then it becomes too hard to draw the line.  It's why I quit most of cisco's MLB systems.  This person thinks we should skip this game, this person doesn't blah blah blah who cares.  A system is supposed to be mathematical and straightforward.  X, Y, Z happens and you bet.

I also wish the site kept a better track record of this year's records.  They did a nice job in 2011 of splitting it up by system but 2012 is just a mumble jumble of crap so it's hard to see what systems are performing good and which one's are shitting the bed.

That being said last year System 4 went something like 16 or 17 and 4 on B games which is a ridiculous 75%+ clip. So I really plan on only playing the B games for most of these systems.  Makes it easier on my stress levels haha while affording me the ability to bet a higher % of my bankroll. So yes I agree with skipping shity matchup A games because I'm already doing that.  I've decided to only play the A games that I think have a high probability of winning.  But bc they only cap at a 55% clip I'll drop only a little on them like 1% of BR.  If they hit, cool, if not, 10% drop on game B which I was planning on doing anyways.

Just my .02.  I appreciate you asking for my opinion
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#105
Posted: 7/18/2012 5:34:54 PM
So Cubs and Atl would be plays?

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#106
Posted: 7/18/2012 5:35:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Today's Plays

System #3 – Dominant Home team

CHC (A)

System #4 – Dominant Team Over Last 3 Years

*ATL (B) – OPTIONAL

 



I just can't bring myself to lay ANY amount of money on the Cubs.  Even a measly dollar.  I'll be passing this chase.
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#107
Posted: 7/18/2012 6:16:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:

So Cubs and Atl would be plays?



Yes.

[Quote: Originally Posted by bruin95]


I just can't bring myself to lay ANY amount of money on the Cubs.  Even a measly dollar.  I'll be passing this chase.


That's a foolish analogy.  They're a double system play.  Even the worst MLB teams still win 60+ games a year.  To each his own though.
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#108
Posted: 7/18/2012 7:20:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CannedGoods:



Tbh I dunno.  I like betting trends, either "league-wide" or "good team beats bad team".  I hate when systems get too subjective bc then it becomes too hard to draw the line.  It's why I quit most of cisco's MLB systems.  This person thinks we should skip this game, this person doesn't blah blah blah who cares.  A system is supposed to be mathematical and straightforward.  X, Y, Z happens and you bet.

I also wish the site kept a better track record of this year's records.  They did a nice job in 2011 of splitting it up by system but 2012 is just a mumble jumble of crap so it's hard to see what systems are performing good and which one's are shitting the bed.

That being said last year System 4 went something like 16 or 17 and 4 on B games which is a ridiculous 75%+ clip. So I really plan on only playing the B games for most of these systems.  Makes it easier on my stress levels haha while affording me the ability to bet a higher % of my bankroll. So yes I agree with skipping shity matchup A games because I'm already doing that.  I've decided to only play the A games that I think have a high probability of winning.  But bc they only cap at a 55% clip I'll drop only a little on them like 1% of BR.  If they hit, cool, if not, 10% drop on game B which I was planning on doing anyways.

Just my .02.  I appreciate you asking for my opinion


I hear ya - and totally your option on how you want to play it - it's definitely a good line to just bet the "B" games and just increasing your bet size.  I personally like it.  The unfortunate part of that particular line could be frustrating while you watch a bunch of A games cash - while you have to sit by waiting. 

That's why I like a 2 game chase - i'll take a few losses if it eliminates my bankroll risk while producing a really good win%.

As far as including pitching matchup in the other systems - I still think it's a good idea - after all - it's all about adapting, adjusting and improving - even the original author of the PDF - posted revisions to system #1 to include the pitching matchup filter just this season because - it avoided a 10 unit loss.

I just don't know what criteria to use.  Should I use the same criteria as system #1?  not sure.

And for the record the pitching filter is a hard and fast rule.....if the team you want to bet has the edge per the pitching matchup rules - then it's a play.

Thanks for the input - i'm gonna think about it and update the spreadsheet.  I plan to fix whatever is wrong with system #4 logic - and maybe email the original author and get some details on system#7 that is NOT in the original PDF but he posts the play results on his website.
 
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#109
Posted: 7/18/2012 8:56:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CannedGoods:



Yes.

Originally Posted by bruin95]


I just can't bring myself to lay ANY amount of money on the Cubs.  Even a measly dollar.  I'll be passing this chase.


That's a foolish analogy.  They're a double system play.  Even the worst MLB teams still win 60+ games a year.  To each his own though.

Analogy?  What in the world does an analogy have anything to do with what I posted?  Anyway, my wallet will, wholeheartedly, disagree with you.  The Books have enough of my "Cub" money.  They're not getting any more.  Any time I bet any game involving the Cubs, side or total, it's almost an automatic loss.
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#110
Posted: 7/19/2012 12:32:57 AM
Two B game losses back to back doesn't sit too well with me...

Adjustments need to be made.
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#111
Posted: 7/19/2012 3:53:20 AM
Cubs won and ATL lost. Thats it right? Waiting for new plays already are we?
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#112
Posted: 7/19/2012 10:29:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CannedGoods:

Two B game losses back to back doesn't sit too well with me...

Adjustments need to be made.


Yeah - tough loss yesterday with ATL.  Could have easily went our way.  Tied bottom of the 9th with man on 2nd and 3rd - with ONLY 1 out - we just needed a SAC fly or any HIT - and we were butter!.  Then they could have went ahead in the 10th when they tied it up.  But a loss is a loss.

As far as adjustments - I agree.  I actually got an email back from the original author of the PDF - he did say he made adjustments to the systems that are NOT reflected on his e-book revision section of his website.  So we are on our own to figure out what additional filters / rules he implemented to avoid losses.

So with that new information - I am going to implement the same pitcher edge criteria as system #1 to all systems - it makes sense to avoid needless losses - and if we used that filter - we wouldn't have avoided 1 loss on BAL and the ATL series all together.

I will still list the plays - but I will only highlight if the team has a pitcher edge.
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#113
Posted: 7/19/2012 10:31:32 AM

Yesterday's Plays

System #3 – Dominant Home team

CHC (A) - WON

System #4 – Dominant Team Over Last 3 Years

*ATL (B) – OPTIONAL - LOST
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#114
Posted: 7/19/2012 10:46:18 AM
So that's it for this series guys  - I am including ATL in the record even though it was an optional play.  So for the series we went 6-2 and from a unit perspective we won 1 unit if you played ATL - if you didn't it then you would have won 5 units.

Since tracking started on 7/2

Record: 27-3

Units: +20 units



Remember guys - you will lose some 2 game chases - but as you can see the wins far outweigh the losses - even with the 2 game chase.
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#115
Posted: 7/19/2012 10:46:50 AM
And no plays today - new series starts tomorrow
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#116
Posted: 7/19/2012 11:13:44 AM
DG,

How does your money management work exactly?  If your playing to win 1 unit the 1st loss would be -1.1 u and the 2nd would be -2.2 u (-110 standard odds).  Taking big favorites is going to be more than that.  I'm just curious how it is 20 units with 3 losses.  3 losses with even the standard -110 would be almost 10 units.  Are you adding a unit or something after you lose a series?  Just curious because it has me wondering about my FLATS system I use and if it would be better to do what your doing even though mine are +odds.  You can PM me to explain it if you would rather do that.  I apologize if you have it hear in the thread or on the spreadsheet.

Appreciate it if you could let me know. 
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#117
Posted: 7/19/2012 1:36:26 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Alldaygambler28:

DG,
How does your money management work exactly?



ADG,

The record might be somewhat misleading - so let me explain.  The record is series chase W/L record.  So if we win the 2 game series chase - then it's a win.

so we had a total of 30 series chases since 7/2

we won 27 on A or B bets.  The way I bet the B game is I bet what I lost in the A game including the juice plus 1 unit - so the end result if I win my B game is plus 1 unit.

So we won 27 series on A or B games - which yielded 27 units

We lost 3 series.

7/3 - ATL - but we bet only 1 game (A) - we passed on the 2nd game because of the pitching matchup - but ATL won anyway Description: http://images.covers.com/covers/emoticons/an_drunksick.gif

7/16-7/17 BAL – we lost both our A and B bets @ +115 and -138 – So I count that as a total of 3.6 unit loss.  (1 unit from A game, and 2.6 from B game)

7/17-7/18 ATL – we lost both our A and B bets @ -150 and -125 – so I count that as a total of 4.6 unit loss (1.5 unit from A game and a little over 3 unit from B game)

 

 

So out losses look like it’s 10 units – which should yield a 16.8 unit profit, but we bet a HUGE dog with CWS on 7/17 @ +165 on a B bet.  We bet 200 – and won 330 – which yielded us 2.3 additional units.

So technically we are 19.1 units profitable.  I was rounding thoughout the calculations – so that threw my unit total off slightly.  I will adjust the official unit record  

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#118
Posted: 7/19/2012 1:37:56 PM

Since tracking started on 7/2

Record: 27-3

Units: +19.1 units

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#119
Posted: 7/19/2012 2:46:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

And no plays today - new series starts tomorrow


NYY could potentially be a system 4 play today.  They are 10-2 last 3 years in Oakland and like 27-9 since 2004.  It would be unofficial though.
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#120
Posted: 7/19/2012 4:12:49 PM
Thanks for explaining. 

I didn't realize your 1st loss was only 1 game and didn't realize you have big dogs sometimes. 

I run systems myself as you know so I know what you mean by 27-3. 
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#121
Posted: 7/19/2012 4:48:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Alldaygambler28:

Thanks for explaining. 

I didn't realize your 1st loss was only 1 game and didn't realize you have big dogs sometimes. 

I run systems myself as you know so I know what you mean by 27-3. 


ADG - sorry for all the detail - I know for you I could have gone more high level - you know you're stuff - but I figured I would explain a detailed review for other who might be new to systems in general.

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#122
Posted: 7/19/2012 5:10:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CannedGoods:



NYY could potentially be a system 4 play today.  They are 10-2 last 3 years in Oakland and like 27-9 since 2004.  It would be unofficial though.


CG - actually if you unhide the columns in the summary tab - you will see that OAKLAND is an unfiltered play - but part of the filters for system #5 is the team needs a better RPI or an RPI within 15 - which OAK does not have.


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#123
Posted: 7/19/2012 5:25:49 PM

Ok guys - I triple checked the filters on my spreadsheet versus what is in the original author's PDF and website (ebook revisions) section.  To my knowledge - I am correctly capturing the plays and filters.  HOWEVER, I got an email from him saying he made filter revisions that are NOT in the ebook or revisions of the website.  SO...it is up to us to figure out any adjustments he may have made to maintain this 90% win - rate.

So I applied the pitcher filter that exists in system#1 to the other systems - and added a system #7 for flat bets that he has listed on his website.  I'm not sure if that's his official system #7 - but it's on his site.  I figured I would add it since I have all the data needed for it already and see if it tracks well over the next couple of series.

MAKE SURE YOU DOWNLOAD V7 of the spreadsheet if you like using the spreadhseet to see the plays in advance - or if I fall of the planet and stop posting.....

MLB SUPER SYSTEMS

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5dydT9Oe6JbYW1QdXBILW8xb00

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#124
Posted: 7/19/2012 5:57:58 PM
DG, you do great work.  Just wanted to let you know that it's very much appreciated.

BTW, on a side note.  If you were to chase these teams, for the entire series, the record would be 30-0.  That's what I've been doing.  At this point, I'm just nickel and diming it, playing to win just $20 with each series.  There are more than enough plays to make some decent money.  If i was going for bigger money, I'd probably stop the chase at the "B" game.  I'm just trying to build my meager bankroll for the upcoming football season.

Speaking of football, are there any good systems out there for that?
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#125
Posted: 7/19/2012 6:19:12 PM
I have been MIA for awhile and Degen absolutely amazing stuff here....I'm on board with you
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