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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NFL Season W/L system (16-7)
Luckydan
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Luckydan
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Posted: 6/16/2012 5:43:56 PM
Research taken from the 2007 regular season thru the 2011 regular season produced a 16-7 record for team season W/L using the following criteria:

Play over on a team that was a minimum of -6 games or worse ATS in the preceding year. Example: Baltimore was 3-13 ATS in 2007 thus making them an over 6 wins play for  the2008 season. They won 11 games that year. Playing on teams that were -6 or worse ATS the year before, has produced a 8-2 record over the past 4 years.

Play under on a team that was a minimum of +6 games or more ATS in the preceding year. Example: Atlanta was 11-5 ATS in 2010 thus making them an under 10.5 wins play for 2011. They won 9 games last year. Playing against teams that were +6 ATS or better the year before, has a produced a 8-5 record over the past 4 years.

Many of these 23 plays were even to plus money. While there is no guarantee that this trend will continue, it might be something to keep an eye one.

2008 7-1
2009 3-3
2010 3-2
2011 3-1

Plays this year:

New Orleans under 10 (12-4 ATS 2011)
San Francisco under 10 (12-3-1 ATS 2011)
St. Louis over 6 (3-12-1 ATS 2011)
Tampa Bay over 6 (4-12 ATS 2011)
Green Bay under 12 (11-5 ATS 2011)

These are generic numbers. Better numbers with better odds for the diligent shopper are available.  It is worth the effort to get the best number possible as many plays come down to a one game difference or even a half a game difference.

Good Luck.
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jarhead60
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Posted: 6/26/2012 4:49:15 PM
nice work

take a look at twominutewarning............they did some work on season overs and unders
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Luckydan
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Luckydan
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Posted: 2/17/2013 3:45:00 PM
Late update on this year's action:

NO W
SF L
STL W
TB W
GB W

4-1 this year
20-8 last 5 years
10-2 on overs last 5 yrs
10-6 on unders last 5 yrs

Good Luck.
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Burly
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Posted: 5/10/2013 8:42:33 PM

hey dan im kinda confused with how you are calculating it

are you comparing the 2 previous years and if its -6 or +6 then those are the plays?

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Posted: 8/19/2013 11:13:29 AM
Bump
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Luckydan
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Luckydan
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Posted: 8/19/2013 4:20:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Burly:

hey dan im kinda confused with how you are calculating it

are you comparing the 2 previous years and if its -6 or +6 then those are the plays?



I am using the previous season's ATS record in which a team was either + or - 6 units for that one season.

GL
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Luckydan
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Luckydan
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Posted: 8/19/2013 4:35:39 PM
Plays for the 2013 NFL season.

1. Indy under 8.5  (2012 ATS 11-5)
2. Oak over 5.5    (2012 ATS 5-11)
3. KC over 7        (2012 ATS 5-11)
4. Wash under 8  (2012 ATS 11-5)
5. Pha over 7.5    (2012 ATS 3-12-1)
6. Sea under 10.5  (2012 ATS 11-5)
7. STL under 7.5  (2012 ATS 11-5)

These are generic numbers. Better odds and numbers are available.

GL
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PatrickBateman
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Posted: 8/20/2013 12:20:30 AM
Is the reasoning behind this that a team that went poorly ATS is going to be undervalued and vice versa for a stron ATS team?
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nghia1973
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nghia1973
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#9
Posted: 8/20/2013 11:02:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Plays for the 2013 NFL season.

1. Indy under 8.5  (2012 ATS 11-5)
2. Oak over 5.5    (2012 ATS 5-11)
3. KC over 7        (2012 ATS 5-11)
4. Wash under 8  (2012 ATS 11-5)
5. Pha over 7.5    (2012 ATS 3-12-1)
6. Sea under 10.5  (2012 ATS 11-5)
7. STL under 7.5  (2012 ATS 11-5)

These are generic numbers. Better odds and numbers are available.

GL


Thanks for posting
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Luckydan
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Luckydan
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Posted: 7/1/2014 10:58:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Plays for the 2013 NFL season.

1. Indy under 8.5  (2012 ATS 11-5)      L
2. Oak over 5.5    (2012 ATS 5-11)      L
3. KC over 7        (2012 ATS 5-11)      W
4. Wash under 8  (2012 ATS 11-5)     W
5. Pha over 7.5    (2012 ATS 3-12-1)   W
6. Sea under 10.5  (2012 ATS 11-5)    L
7. STL under 7.5  (2012 ATS 11-5)     W

These are generic numbers. Better odds and numbers are available.

GL


4-3 for 2013.

GL

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Dutch1976
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Posted: 7/1/2014 11:15:40 PM
When do season totals usually come out?
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Luckydan
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Luckydan
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Posted: 7/1/2014 11:16:39 PM
Plays for the 2014 NFL Season.

1. AZ under 7.5  (2013 ATS 11-5)
2. HST over 7.5  (2013 ATS 4-12)
3. CHI over 8      (2013 ATS 4-10-2)
4. WASH over 7 (2013 ATS 5-11)
5. JAX over 4.5   (2013 ATS 5-10-1)
6. SEA under 11 (2013 ATS 11-5)
7. CIN under 9    (2013 ATS 10-5-1)
8. SF under 11   (2013 ATS 10-5-1)

These are the better numbers from the LVH and CG. They are subject to change.

GL
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Luckydan
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Luckydan
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Posted: 7/1/2014 11:18:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dutch1976:

When do season totals usually come out?



They have been out at various books for some time.

GL
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Dutch1976
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Posted: 7/1/2014 11:45:56 PM
This is a cool system just for the action.
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Luckydan
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Luckydan
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Posted: 7/1/2014 11:58:54 PM
Please note that why I use a +6 or -6 ATS differential, I posted  three teams at +5 or -5 with a push. I researched these teams, and a push could have been avoided with a timely or untimely placement of that pushed wager. For instance, Cincy's push of +3 at Chicago could have been a winner with the available +3.5 line that was out there for a long period of time. That would have made them 11-5 ATS for 2013 or +6. The same with Jax and SF. Their two respective pushes could have made them 5-11 and 11-5 respectively, with a untimely or timely placed wager, thus qualifying them for this year's plays. Hopefully these three teams won't come back to bite me later this season.

GL


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