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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Cisco's MLB Dog Chase 2012
Alldaygambler28 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/18/2012 11:00:39 AM
This will be the thread for this system.  I will only list the plays each day on this thread.  The rest of the information is on the spreadsheet.

Link to spreadsheet:  http://tinyurl.com/cuca7jw

The first tab on the bottom of spreadsheet has all plays listed in full detail.  The rules tab is the 2nd on the bottom. 


4/18

PIT- ROAD DOG LOSS (RDL)


Arizona ML

*The money line listed on the spreadsheet will always be the closing line. Be careful, some plays may be voided if the line movement changes a team from a favorite/dog. 


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#2
Posted: 4/18/2012 12:26:34 PM

on it.

first winner coming up..

 

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#3
Posted: 4/18/2012 1:09:53 PM
For all those who don't know the rules

The System:
Wait until a winning streak of 3 games or more as a home or road dog gets snapped.  These are consecutive games as a Home Dog or Road Dog.  You may have games as road favorites or home favorites mixed in.  Those games don't count.  The streak is either a winning streak or losing streak as a dog, not both combined.  When the home or road winning or losing streak is snapped, wait 2 games (skip) (either as a home or road dog) and then start your chase.  The result of the skipped games don't matter.  So a total of 3 games waited before chase starts.  

Play favorites at -110 or higher when playing against losing streak team.  Skip game if not -110.
Play dogs on the +1.5 runline
Use runline to figure out favorite when odds are -103 or less for both teams

Home Dog Win Example:

WWWL (all games were as home dogs)
skip 2 games when they are home dogs again
Chase up to 4 games as a home dog necessary to win 1 unit on that TEAM TO WIN

Road Dog Win Example:

WWWWWWL (all games were as road dogs)
skip 2 games if the team were road dogs again
Chase up to 4 games as a road dog necessary to win 1 unit on that TEAM TO WIN

Home Dog Loss Example:

LLLLLW (all games were as home dogs)
skip 2 games if it were as home dogs again
Chase up to 4 games as a home dog necessary to win 1 unit on that TEAM TO LOSE

Road Dog Loss Example:

LLLLLLLLLLW (all games were as road dogs)
skip 2 games if the team were road dogs again
Chase up to 4 games as a road dog necessary to win 1 unit on that TEAM TO LOSE
terms
hdw - home dog winner (we tail)
hdl - home dog loser (we fade)
rdw - road dog winner (we tail)
rdl - road dog loser (we fade)
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#4
Posted: 4/18/2012 1:48:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cisco:

on it.

first winner coming up..

 



No garbage.  Should be an easy G1 victory boss.
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#5
Posted: 4/19/2012 11:23:29 AM
4/18

PIT- ROAD DOG LOSS (RDL)  Game 1


Arizona ML  


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#6
Posted: 4/19/2012 11:26:49 AM
4/19

CIN  (RDL) GAME 1

TB (RDL) GAME 1


PLAY:

ST. LOUIS ML

TORONTO ML


*The money line listed on the spreadsheet will always be the closing line. Be careful, some plays may be voided if the line movement changes a team from a favorite/dog.

http://tinyurl.com/cuca7jw
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#7
Posted: 4/19/2012 11:38:08 AM
Hey allday quick question...just want to confirm we arent playing +1.5 rl on dogs? Thx!
Posted using a mobile device.
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#8
Posted: 4/19/2012 12:24:19 PM
stickbit,

In terms of the spreadsheet, we are using the run-line for dogs


The spreadsheet is run following the rules exactly. 


It is at your own discretion whether to follow exactly or play it differently (example skipping the GAME 4 loss if the units are too extreme).  All I know is last year was more profitable using the run-line dogs than not.  So that is what will be done with the spreadsheet and this thread. 


The great Cisco said to play the run-line so that is what we'll do.












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#9
Posted: 4/20/2012 1:35:57 PM
ST. LOUIS ML

TORONTO ML   



Not a good start, but gotta keep truckin. 



NO PLAYS TODAY, a day to re-group. 
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#10
Posted: 4/20/2012 3:08:07 PM

It's gonna turn soon.

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#11
Posted: 4/20/2012 3:40:23 PM

Today's plays would have been all g2 chc +1.5, STL ml and minn +1.5 correct?

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#12
Posted: 4/20/2012 6:25:41 PM
PFJ,

You better read the rules in Post #3 or on the spreadsheet better. 

None of those are plays.  Cincinnati is a favorite, Pitt is at home, and TB is at home.  Your getting the home/away and dog/fave confused. 



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#13
Posted: 4/21/2012 1:35:47 AM
4/21

HOU (HDW) GAME 1


PLAY:

HOUSTON +1.5

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#14
Posted: 4/21/2012 11:51:32 PM
4/21

HOU (HDW) GAME 1


PLAY:

HOUSTON +1.5 
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#15
Posted: 4/21/2012 11:57:16 PM
For Sunday 4/22

HOU (HDW) GAME 2

CUBS (HDL) GAME 1


Play:

HOU +1.5

CINC ML


Lets pop the cherry and get the 1st W, huh? 


MY PLUS MONEY SYSTEM IN THE MLB FORUM is off to a terrible start as well.  Blew a 2-0 lead with the Nats and a 9-0 lead with the BoSux today.  Nowhere to go but up with these.  
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#16
Posted: 4/23/2012 1:00:28 PM
HOU +1.5 

CINC ML 


YTD Chase: 2-0 (+2 units)
Overall Record: 2-4


4/23

NY Mets (HDW) GAME 1

*This is game 2 of double header. No PLAY if they become favorite on ML. 




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#17
Posted: 4/23/2012 7:07:41 PM
What up AD?  U using Wagerline?  This could come down to a game time decision.
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#18
Posted: 4/24/2012 11:29:10 AM

4/23

NY Mets (HDW) GAME 1
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#19
Posted: 4/24/2012 11:30:42 AM
YTD Chase: 2-0 (+2 units)
Overall Record: 2-5


4/24

NY Mets (HDW) GAME 2


Same as yesterday, could become a ml favorite by game time and a no play. 
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#20
Posted: 4/25/2012 3:04:14 AM
YTD Chase: 3-0 (+3 units)
Overall Record: 3-5



4/25

Fade HOU (RDL)


Play:

Milwaukee ML

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#21
Posted: 4/25/2012 5:31:30 PM
So if Hou is a dog on 4/27 at CIN then we play CIN ML (fading HOU RDL gm2)
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#22
Posted: 4/25/2012 6:04:33 PM

Oh, you post the plays here and then I have to go to your other sheet to see the teams progression and tally?

I see I'm not the only one being dogged by roguewager

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#23
Posted: 4/25/2012 6:31:41 PM
Ya, fading Houston as a Road Dog will continue on to game 2 on Friday assuming they will be a dog. 


I post the plays to be here the night before or the morning of the games.  I will post the chase record and units here, but everything else is located on the spreadsheet which can the link is in POST #1. 


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#24
Posted: 4/26/2012 11:46:55 AM
4/25

Fade HOU (RDL)


Play:

Milwaukee ML 




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#25
Posted: 4/26/2012 11:50:12 AM
YTD Chase: 3-0 (+3 units)
Overall Record: 3-6



4/26

Fade SD (HDL)



Play:

Washington ML


*No PLAY if they become favorite on ML



spreadsheet link: http://tinyurl.com/cuca7jw




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