CAP's MLB Query Results (Something for Everyone)

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: CAP's MLB Query Results (Something for Everyone)
cytdemasi08 PM cytdemasi08
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Posted: 4/24/2012 4:36:36 PM

WOW! HOW DO YOU MISS ALL OF THOSE PLAYS.

THANKS FOR THE POST

BCap888 PM BCap888
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Posted: 4/24/2012 7:44:25 PM
I didn't mean I scanned too quickly I checked for plays too soon in the day. But I know you're joking.
BCap888 PM BCap888
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Posted: 4/25/2012 1:16:51 AM
God bless Rick Ankiel! God bless Wil Venable's eyesight!

4/24

System-1
Athletics / White Sox U7 (-120) (W)
Cardinals / Cubs U7.5 (-115) (W)
Marlins / Mets U6.5 (+110) (W)
Nationals / Padres U6 (-115) (W)
Pirates / Rockies U7.5 (-105) (L)

System-10
Nationals -1.5 (+135) (W)

System-14
Astros +130 (L)
 
4/24
Record: 5-2
+$302.25

YTD
Record: 27-17 (61.4%)
+$1060.49
+24% ROI

What a night! Late inning drama in Chicago, Oakland, New York and San Diego all adds up to us cracking $1000! Let's keep this thing rolling everybody! Plays up in the morning.
BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
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Posted: 4/25/2012 3:41:46 AM
Hosser PM Hosser
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Posted: 4/25/2012 7:04:40 AM
Thanks bcap.
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BCap888 PM BCap888
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Posted: 4/25/2012 11:36:37 AM
4/25

System-1
Athletics / White Sox U7.5 (-130)
Marlins / Mets U7 (+110)
Nationals / Padres U6 (+110)
Rays / Angels U7.5 (-110)

All I have for you, GL.

YTD
Record: 27-17 (61.4%)
+$1060.49
+24% ROI
BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
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Posted: 4/25/2012 11:52:48 AM
Let's get it on!
BCap888 PM BCap888
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Posted: 4/25/2012 7:32:12 PM
Heartbreak in Oakland... So irritated.
Hosser PM Hosser
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Posted: 4/25/2012 7:38:52 PM
That was brutal.
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BCap888 PM BCap888
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Posted: 4/25/2012 11:27:02 PM
4/25

System-1
Athletics / White Sox U7.5 (-130) (L)
Marlins / Mets U7 (+110) (W)
Nationals / Padres U6 (+110) (L)
Rays / Angels U7.5 (-110) (W)

4/25
Record: 2-2
+$0.91

YTD
Record: 29-19 (60.4%)
+$1061.40
+22% ROI

Still don't know how to explain what happened in Oakland. Technically finished positive again though. Plays up in the morning.

nickel12345 PM nickel12345
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Posted: 4/26/2012 2:24:32 AM
BCap, I have been following your plays for a while. I laid off the Oakland's game under today because they had a streak of 7 games under. Usually I would follow your picks, but I just didn't like to bet on a team with a streak of 7 unders. Do you think it is a good idea to take streaks into consideration?
BCap888 PM BCap888
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Posted: 4/26/2012 3:14:10 AM
Ahhh I hadn't noticed that. That's not a bad idea. I think of it something like this with my opinionated probability of each event happening:

By Continuing:
Best-Case: We get one or maybe two more wins. (<30% chance)
Worst-Case: We lose 1 Unit. (>50% chance)

By Stopping:
Best-Case: We avoid a 1 Unit loss. (100% chance)
Worst-Case: The streak never ends. (<1%)

I think everyone would agree that discontinuing to bet the streak is a good idea. So what were you thinking, 5 games? 6? I don't know too much about totals streaks.
nickel12345 PM nickel12345
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Posted: 4/26/2012 5:13:07 AM
I usually go with 6 games because there is a system in NBA that bet on winning/losing streaks, which uses the rule of 6. So I just go with 6.
Hosser PM Hosser
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Posted: 4/26/2012 7:55:40 AM
Bcap when you back tested system #1, were your numbers from taking just the first game after a 2 game streak? I'm concerned that if we stay on the streaks that it may mess up your roi. But it may be for the better. I guess we don't know yet.
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BCap888 PM BCap888
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Posted: 4/26/2012 9:22:23 AM
Well, the only parameters were that the last two games were under less than 10 when the current total is less than 8. You can see that any game that goes under 8 in the third game will again be a play if they are under 8 again. So as long as the LAST TWO games the team played fit the system it was counted.
Hosser PM Hosser
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Posted: 4/26/2012 9:27:55 AM
Excellent. Thank you.
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BCap888 PM BCap888
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Posted: 4/26/2012 9:28:27 AM
4/26

System-1
Marlins / Mets U7.5 (-125)

System-5
Royals +150

That's all folks. GL.

YTD
Record: 29-19 (60.4%)
+$1061.40
+22% ROI
BCap888 PM BCap888
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Posted: 4/26/2012 4:29:40 PM
4/26

System-1
Marlins / Mets U7.5 (-125) (W)

System-5
Royals +150 (W)

4/26
Record: 2-0
+$230.00

YTD
Record: 31-19 (62%)
+$1291.40
+26% ROI

Hopefully you were with us today. Excellent afternoon for the systems. If I don't come back tonight plays up in the morning like always.
BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
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Posted: 4/26/2012 5:18:22 PM
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 4/26/2012 5:41:00 PM
missed em....but will begin to watch this thread...
Hosser PM Hosser
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Posted: 4/26/2012 7:46:00 PM
Nice bcap.
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alekomtz PM alekomtz
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Posted: 4/26/2012 7:56:39 PM
great work! do you havethe record of each season? that would be great, thanks!
BCap888 PM BCap888
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Posted: 4/27/2012 9:30:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alekomtz:

great work! do you havethe record of each season? that would be great, thanks!

I can do that, give me till later today and that'll be up.

4/27

System-1
Braves / Pirates U7 (+100)
Dodgers / Nationals U6 (-115)
Angels / Indians U7.5 (-125)
Marlins / Diamondbacks U7.5 (-110)
Cubs / Phillies U7 (-125)

System-14
Astros +135

Twins and Royals are System-3 and System-14 plays respectively so no go on either.

Check back around 3:15 or so and see if I've added any plays. As of now these are the only definites.

YTD
Record: 31-19 (62%)
+$1291.40
+26% ROI
The Dog Catcher PM The Dog Catcher
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Posted: 4/27/2012 2:01:15 PM
BCap
Do you have an excel program you would be willing to share which might help determine the plays?  

thanks!
BCap888 PM BCap888
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quote#100
Posted: 4/27/2012 2:28:18 PM
I don't use an excel program I use an online database I search through for the plays. Killer Sports.

4/27

System-1
Braves / Pirates U7 (+100)
Dodgers / Nationals U6 (-115)
Angels / Indians U7.5 (-125)
Marlins / Diamondbacks U7.5 (-110)
Cubs / Phillies U7 (-125)
Cardinals / Brewers U7.5 (-125)

System-14
Astros +135

Cardinals / Brewers snuck under 8 so I've added them. GL

I'm going to put up the year by year results of playing all 14 systems shortly.
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