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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA Rule of 6 = 6 Systems!!!!
The__Man send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#101
Posted: 3/13/2012 11:12:11 AM
I can help you out over the weekend. :)

Also, confused as to why HOU is a play.  They haven't lost 8 in a row?? They pushed against NJ two games ago (their 7th game)/if you got the line early enough, you won as it opened -3.
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#102
Posted: 3/13/2012 11:18:36 AM
Man...yes I also won with houston cuz I got the line early at 3.5....but it moved and closed at 6.5 so offically its a loss as houston won by 6.
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#103
Posted: 3/13/2012 11:25:22 AM
Oh okay I had the line closing @ 6, as did the site that I use to backtest info on...

Tempted to take them +11.  They're not THAT BAD of a team and OKC is overrated as garbage and public as garbage.
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#104
Posted: 3/13/2012 12:21:34 PM
Also, I have a lot more than just 1 loss for system #7.  There's at least two losses.  I'm confident there is actually 4 though since 05-06, and that backtested to 1995 there are 9 total losses. If we begin however @ game 8 instead of 7, it drops to just 2 losses since 05-06, 3 back to 1995.

Chase record since 1995 (at closing lines)
Starting @ game 7: 105-9   +35.7 units

Starting @ game 8: 63-3   +39.9 units

4 game chase starting @ game 7: 111-3 +61.5 units


Not trying to undermine Air1 at all, he's amazing.  I just hate losing money more than I do making it.  I strive for perfection.  Thought I'd backtest this myself and see what I came up with.  These are my results.  I am human though so maybe I made a mistake.  That is all.
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buntyketti send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#105
Posted: 3/13/2012 12:49:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The__Man:

Also, I have a lot more than just 1 loss for system #7.  There's at least two losses.  I'm confident there is actually 4 though since 05-06, and that backtested to 1995 there are 9 total losses. If we begin however @ game 8 instead of 7, it drops to just 2 losses since 05-06, 3 back to 1995.

Chase record since 1995 (at closing lines)
Starting @ game 7: 105-9   +35.7 units

Starting @ game 8: 63-3   +39.9 units

4 game chase starting @ game 7: 111-3 +61.5 units


Not trying to undermine Air1 at all, he's amazing.  I just hate losing money more than I do making it.  I strive for perfection.  Thought I'd backtest this myself and see what I came up with.  These are my results.  I am human though so maybe I made a mistake.  That is all.

Really appreciate the concern the_man . Can you please backtest the NBA 1st quarters moneyline systems as well if you can. I came up with 4 system losses in the first half of 2010 - 2011 season !! Just needed two more eyes to confirm it. 

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#106
Posted: 3/13/2012 2:27:14 PM
Hey The_Man, thanks for the info. I know it takes A LOT of work as I have done it myself.
After all the talk earlier about system #6, even I got a little confused. I thought that betting it after game #7 ats was lost was what we should go with as I originally had.
Btw what was the longest streak you had for losers ats?
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#107
Posted: 3/13/2012 2:28:01 PM
Hey buntyketti, wouldnt results vary dependent upon which teams you include in the chase?
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Air1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#108
Posted: 3/13/2012 2:31:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The__Man:



Chase record since 1995 (at closing lines)
Starting @ game 7: 105-9   +35.7 units

Starting @ game 8: 63-3   +39.9 units

4 game chase starting @ game 7: 111-3 +61.5 units


How many units are you using as a loss for these series?
at -110 I have a 3 game chase -8.26 & 4 game chase -10.44
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#109
Posted: 3/13/2012 5:26:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:

what was the longest streak you had for losers ats?


The mighty Cleveland Cavaliers lost a superstitious 13 straight games ATS in the 2000-01 NBA season.

A silver medal goes to Memphis in 2008-09, who lost 12 straight.
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#110
Posted: 3/13/2012 5:32:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:



How many units are you using as a loss for these series?
at -110 I have a 3 game chase -8.26 & 4 game chase -10.44


My bad.  I just used -7.7 per 3 game.  Precise correct number is -8.26.  Precise correct number for 4 game chase is actually -18.45.  You wind up betting 10.18 for the 4th game, if it loses you add the 8.26 lost in the previous three games.  Total (with rounding) is -18.45.

Re-calculated figures:
Chase record since 1995 (at closing lines)
Starting @ game 7: 105-9   +30.66 units

Starting @ game 8: 63-3   +38.22 units

4 game chase starting @ game 7: 111-3 +55.65 units
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Air1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#111
Posted: 3/13/2012 5:44:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The__Man:



My bad.  I just used -7.7 per 3 game.  Precise correct number is -8.26.  Precise correct number for 4 game chase is actually -18.45.  You wind up betting 10.18 for the 4th game, if it loses you add the 8.26 lost in the previous three games.  Total (with rounding) is -18.45.

Re-calculated figures:
Chase record since 1995 (at closing lines)
Starting @ game 7: 105-9   +30.66 units

Starting @ game 8: 63-3   +38.22 units

4 game chase starting @ game 7: 111-3 +55.65 units


Yeah, those were the numbers I was getting.
btw the 10.44 was a type, should have been 18.44 Impossible to lose only 2 units on a D bet in a chase.
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#112
Posted: 3/13/2012 10:54:39 PM
HOUSTON
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#113
Posted: 3/14/2012 10:52:50 AM
Yay Houston!

MIL is on a 5 game ATS win streak.  Should they cover tn against CLE (seems probable), they'll trigger system 1 once the X game occurs.
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#114
Posted: 3/14/2012 7:03:44 PM
Pending Plays
System #3/4
: Pending next two hou games
System #5: Bet on Hou to W ats vs LAL
Streakers
Mil Won 5 in a row ats

Results so far
System #1: +8 Units
System #2: +4 Units
System #3: -.41 Units
System #4: No Plays
System #5: +3 Units
System #6: +1 Units
Total:::::::::: +15.6 Units
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#115
Posted: 3/16/2012 2:12:51 PM
Pending Plays
System #3
: Start a 2 game chase vs. Pho then Lal.
System #5: Bet on Hou to W ats vs LAL
Streakers
Mil Won 6 in a row ats... waiting for X game
Mia Lost 4 in a row ats

Results so far
System #1: +8 Units
System #2: +4 Units
System #3: -.41 Units
System #4: No Plays
System #5: +3 Units
System #6: +1 Units
Total:::::::::: +15.6 Units
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Air1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#116
Posted: 3/16/2012 2:14:43 PM
To anyone who sent a friend request, it has been accepted.
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Air1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#117
Posted: 3/18/2012 3:24:57 AM
2 game chase on hou starts today.
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#118
Posted: 3/18/2012 11:51:54 AM
any plays for tonight?
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Air1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#119
Posted: 3/19/2012 6:24:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jaime2309:

any plays for tonight?


Play for sunday in prior post.
Hou lost will cont with the last game of the 2 game chase.

No new plays as of yet.
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#120
Posted: 3/20/2012 9:23:39 AM
Why are they late on posting the lines?
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#121
Posted: 3/21/2012 12:33:21 AM
Houston pulls a rabbit out of it's hat!!!
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#122
Posted: 3/21/2012 1:31:35 PM
Pending Plays
None

Streakers
Mil Won 8 in a row ats... waiting for X game
NY Won 5 in a row ats... waiting for X game
Pho Won 5 in a row ats... waiting for X game

Results so far
System #1: +8 Units
System #2: +4 Units
System #3: +.6 Units
System #4: No Plays
System #5: +4 Units
System #6: +1 Units
Total:::::::::: +17.6 Units
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#123
Posted: 3/21/2012 1:32:19 PM
Love the D game bets after the X game. Hits 65% of the time.
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#124
Posted: 3/21/2012 4:05:08 PM

I am going to make small bets until NY loses. That coaching change has them back to their old form. I bet the ML @Phi 2nite.

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#125
Posted: 3/21/2012 4:47:57 PM
there are more lengthier winning streaks than there are losing streaks. Ny could go up to 14 games like dal did last season. If you are going to do that you are better off betting against mil (although idk since they traded for ellis)
Good luck either way
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