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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA teams with win percent below 425 fade
Air1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#76
Posted: 1/28/2012 7:24:29 AM
if you want to do a 3 game chase without risking too many, almost as much as a two game chase, than make your first bet about 1/3 of a unit.
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#77
Posted: 1/28/2012 7:32:36 AM
Forgot to give my findings for 2010-2011. Quickly went over the season - so not sure how accurate this is because I did not keep track of a teams winning % throughout the season. Only went by end of season & included GS .439 because they won their last few games of the season; otherwise they'd have fallen under .425 also.
This system went 88 wins and 9 loses. I'm guessing a lot of plays were not counted by Knox because he tracked it throughout the season and I am backtracking it with the final win % for the teams.
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#78
Posted: 1/28/2012 9:21:17 AM

44 wins and 8 loses  for last year ..So @ 8  losses at 3 units a loss would bring you to 24 units ... so total profit of 20 units .. You will make 20 units with this easy to follow system ...

Todays Plays  Lakers -5 

                      wait to see what Detroit does .. If they cover we know to ride the fade on them there next game ... If they dont cover , its no big deal

 

Thank for posting the plays Glenfkb01

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IPICKGAMES
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#79
Posted: 1/28/2012 11:05:35 AM
Similarly to fading under .425 teams has anyone taken a look at fading teams that have gone over/under 4 or 5 times in a row? I looked at a few teams (approximately 8)this year and haven't seen a streak of more than 6 games? Same strategy can be applied here. Let me know thoughts.
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#80
Posted: 1/28/2012 12:44:36 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by IPICKGAMES:

Similarly to fading under .425 teams has anyone taken a look at fading teams that have gone over/under 4 or 5 times in a row? I looked at a few teams (approximately 8)this year and haven't seen a streak of more than 6 games? Same strategy can be applied here. Let me know thoughts.

 

I have looked at that while ago .. The best patterns thatI found ,for a 3 game chase is if a team is playing 3 games in 4 night the chances are very good that the one of the 3 games are going over .. tired legs make for bad defense. But I stopped playing that I started betting this system instead .. I just feel comfortable betting aginst the bottom of the barrel teams ..

I look for 5-7 units a month ... doesn't sound like much , but if it can pay the lease payment on the car and other misc. items that is good enought for me ..

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#81
Posted: 1/28/2012 5:03:35 PM
I might have missed it but what was the record after only taking the under .425 team to lose after the second ATS cover?
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#82
Posted: 1/28/2012 6:16:18 PM
Its up 5 units .. at seasons end you will be up 20 units ... We started on 1/16/12   Its been 7 days and we already have 5 units ..
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#83
Posted: 1/28/2012 10:41:23 PM
Nice thread and I like your approach. Only noticed it because of the NHL break. I plan on tailing it. Dug through the records and noticed that following your method would have produced 12 wins ( for the season) before tonight and if you would have played with alternate point spreads of 1/2 pt. you could save some juice. And if you wanted to push it a little with 3 pts. and make your line +137 and stopped your chases where you did you would have lost 3 of the 12 but be up another unit. But you'd have to watch this method if the lines do really get sharper as the season progresses. But I really do like what you have going.
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#84
Posted: 1/28/2012 10:51:17 PM

1/28/12

Lakers -4.5       

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#85
Posted: 1/29/2012 10:03:02 AM
Toronto and NO today correct? How are you handling NO covering 5 in a row?
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#86
Posted: 1/29/2012 10:06:47 AM
 

Teams under .425 (As of Jan 29)

           Teams         ATS          Current ATS Streak

  1. NY Knicks (ATS 5-15)     Lost 1
  2. NJ Nets     (ATS 10-10)   Won 2 ****
  3. Toronto      (ATS 10-10)   lost 1
  4. Milwaukee (ATS  9-10)    Won 3****
  5. Cleveland   (ATS 10-8)     lost 1
  6. Detroit       (ATS 6-14-1) lost 1
  7. Washington(ATS 7-13)    won1
  8. Charlotte    (ATS 7-14)     Lost 5  
  9. Phoenix     (ATS 8-11)    won 1
  10. G.S.          (ATS 8-10)     lost1
  11. Sacremento (ATS 7-13)   won 1
  12. New Orleans (ATS 10-9)  Won 5

TODAYS GAMES

Toronto +5 at NJ

Atlanta -2.5 at MIL if you dare.... not part of this system

 

Note MILWAUKEE is on the cusp of going over .425

Note MINNESOTA is on the cusp of going under .425

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#87
Posted: 1/29/2012 10:29:45 AM

Todays plays

Toronto +5

Atlanta -2.5  I am playing this because I just have to ......I would like to pick up 2 units today . I am just playing a single unit on this game

I am leaving Milwaukee and Minnesota for awile ,,

Lakers are a pending (B) bet tommorow

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#88
Posted: 1/29/2012 10:34:12 AM

Sorry wrong info .. No Lakers Play ... We are taking the loss on the Minnesota fade .. since they are moving out of 425 win percent ..

So just play Toronto +5

                   Atlanta - 2.5

we are still up 4 units and looking to pick up 2 more tonight

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#89
Posted: 1/29/2012 10:42:39 AM

Update :

If you are a 50.00 dollar beter you are up 180.00

If you are a 100.00 dollar beter you are up 300.00

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#90
Posted: 1/29/2012 10:48:19 AM
you mean lakers on 29th? . they aint playing on the 30th 

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#91
Posted: 1/29/2012 10:51:07 AM
ignore my post 

all clear now 
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#92
Posted: 1/29/2012 2:21:44 PM
I was doing some analysis on this strategy. While this strategy worked very well last year, the years before have had mixed results.

My analysis on the previous 6 years shows the following results ($ based on $110 bet g1, $220 bet g2):
YTD: 12-2 +290
2010/2011: 89-14 +3560
2009/2010: 56-26 -3270
2008/2009: 70-27 -2930
2007/2008: 76-14 +2560
2006/2007: 73-21 -180
2005/2006: 56-21 -2230

A few things to keep in mind:
1) In my analysis, I chose teams to bet based on a .425 winning percentages at that point that the bet is made, not based on using year end standings. For example, last year memphis started off terribly, and would have been a play up until their 35th game. By the 36th game, their winning percentage never dipped below .425, so they never were a play again. The analysis in this post only uses year end standings, which is not realistic.

2) I started all season after the 10th game to give some meaning to the winning percentages.

Losses for this year would have been on:
1/13/2012 - Houston
1/25/2012 - New Orleans

Losses last year would have been on:
1/12/11 - Charlotte
2/27/11 - Cleveland
12/27/10 - Detroit
12/7/10 - Houston
3/9/11 - LA Clippers
12/11/10 - Memphis
3/12/11 - Milwaukee
4/5/11 - Milwaukee
11/14/10 - Minnesota
11/20/10 - New York
12/3/10 - Philadelphia
1/24/11 - Philadelphia
3/29/11 - Sacramento
11/24/10 - Toronto


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#93
Posted: 1/29/2012 3:45:41 PM
k-murder,thanks for the info. I was wondering if this was done after the first ats win or how knox is playing it after the second win?
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#94
Posted: 1/29/2012 3:56:49 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by bulichm:

k-murder,thanks for the info. I was wondering if this was done after the first ats win or how knox is playing it after the second win?

                                 

My bad, the 12-2 indicates its the way knox is playing it.I just looked up the smae thing for this year . Also there would have been an additional 15 or so wins if there was a chase initiated after the first ats loss.       One other thing did you notice any kind of w/l rate drop towards the end of the season in your research?

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#95
Posted: 1/29/2012 3:59:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by k-murder:

I was doing some analysis on this strategy. While this strategy worked very well last year, the years before have had mixed results.

My analysis on the previous 6 years shows the following results ($ based on $110 bet g1, $220 bet g2):
YTD: 12-2 +290
2010/2011: 89-14 +3560
2009/2010: 56-26 -3270
2008/2009: 70-27 -2930
2007/2008: 76-14 +2560
2006/2007: 73-21 -180
2005/2006: 56-21 -2230

A few things to keep in mind:
1) In my analysis, I chose teams to bet based on a .425 winning percentages at that point that the bet is made, not based on using year end standings. For example, last year memphis started off terribly, and would have been a play up until their 35th game. By the 36th game, their winning percentage never dipped below .425, so they never were a play again. The analysis in this post only uses year end standings, which is not realistic.

2) I started all season after the 10th game to give some meaning to the winning percentages.

Losses for this year would have been on:
1/13/2012 - Houston
1/25/2012 - New Orleans

Losses last year would have been on:
1/12/11 - Charlotte
2/27/11 - Cleveland
12/27/10 - Detroit
12/7/10 - Houston
3/9/11 - LA Clippers
12/11/10 - Memphis
3/12/11 - Milwaukee
4/5/11 - Milwaukee
11/14/10 - Minnesota
11/20/10 - New York
12/3/10 - Philadelphia
1/24/11 - Philadelphia
3/29/11 - Sacramento
11/24/10 - Toronto



Can you explain the 2010/11 results, there were 14 losses at -$330 for a total of -$4620 and 89 wins at +$8,900 isnt the net for the season +$4,280 ?
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#96
Posted: 1/29/2012 7:52:29 PM
I think the win percentage is lower that 425 as the season goes on .. I lower it to about 340 and lower .. Its basically the bottom of the barrel as the season goes ...
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#97
Posted: 1/29/2012 8:10:40 PM
IPICKGAMES - good observation. The difference is because of 3 reasons:

1) If you are in a 1st game chase to bet against the losing team, and the losing team happens to win, and their record becomes greater than .425, then my system stops the chase, so you would lose $110 and never bet the second game. Occurred 4 times: Charlotte on 1/28/11, Houston 12/20/10, Memphis 1/4/11 and Milwaukee 12/15/10.

2) If the 1st game chase is the last game of the season, then this happened. Happened once with Cleveland.

3) If you win on the 1st game, then you win $100. But if you win on the second one, then you win $200 minus $110 - or $90. Last year, 61 game 1, and 28 game 2 wins.

I can redo the analysis, but just eyeballing it, it doesn't seem like it will make much of a difference.
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#98
Posted: 1/29/2012 9:24:09 PM
K- murder : that makes sense I knew there was a good explanation. No need to rerun the analysis as the amounts wouldn't be affected drastically.

Do you know what the results would be if you stopped after the first game and never wagered the 2nd game of the chase (not losing the $220?
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#99
Posted: 1/29/2012 9:34:04 PM

Tonights plays

Atlanta -2.5              SYSTEM RESULTS  +6 units

Toronto + 5              

                                         

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#100
Posted: 1/30/2012 6:13:15 PM
no plays today?
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