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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA teams with win percent below 425 fade
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#1
Posted: 1/16/2012 5:51:57 PM

Teams that are below 425 win percent , will rarely win more than 3 ATS in a row. Last yr you would have been up 27 units . I start the 2 game chase at 2 wins ATS  I play 1 unit first game 2 units second game .. after that I take the 3 unit loss if it does not cover ..

todays play .. (already started )

ATL -10.5

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#2
Posted: 1/16/2012 5:54:10 PM
This is my tracker but if you want to follow all the best .. GL
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#3
Posted: 1/16/2012 10:29:13 PM
sounds like a good system but wondering why atlanta today? they didnt cover their last game??
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#4
Posted: 1/17/2012 3:18:10 PM
If I interpreted the system correctly, the reason why atl would be - Tor has a win % below 425. They won 2 games ATS in a row. Now we start a 2 game chase where we FADE Tor. So atl first game.
Atl lost. We wait for Tor next game and fade for 2 Units. Win or lose we stop the chase.

@knox did you only do this last year, no previous other years? Any way to back-test further?

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#5
Posted: 1/17/2012 4:58:39 PM

I backtested last yr . There were 8 streaks of 4 ats and 5 ats for teams below 425 win pct.

For the 2010 NBA season

Toronto had 4 wins ATS in a row

Milwaukee had one 4 win ATS in a row and a 5 streak ATS in a row

Detroit had one 5 Streak win  ATS

Charlotte had one 5 streak win  ATS

Minnesota had one 5 ATS win streak

Clippers had one 4 game ATS streak

Sacramento had one 4 game ATS streak

The rest were 2 and 3 game streaks ..

 

 

 

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#6
Posted: 1/17/2012 5:03:04 PM

Next game we are fading TOR

1/18/12  B bet Toronto @ Boston B  (no line yet)

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#7
Posted: 1/17/2012 10:14:47 PM
it is correct to say that there was not a single team that won 6 in a row ats last season. Therefor if you start from fading on the third game and do a 4 game chase you would have not lost a single unit.
I am not going to risk that much, but thought that information should be put out there. And as always there is a chance it could go to 7 wins ats in a row.
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#8
Posted: 1/17/2012 11:59:48 PM

Thats right ..If you start from the third ATS win you would have only 8 plays last yr ..

 

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#9
Posted: 1/18/2012 1:15:38 PM

Tonights play Toronto @ Boston -9  (B bet) 2 units

System results

A 0-1

B 0-0

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kamphil
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#10
Posted: 1/18/2012 3:31:47 PM
knoxpoker, wouldn't you start a fade against Minnesota?   Their winning %age is .385 and they have covered their last 3 ats.   Sounds like you are onto something...
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#11
Posted: 1/18/2012 4:21:18 PM

Yes Kamphil good call ..I missed that one .. I always check before I place my bets .. I  also play the Kineprofesser betting system with this system .

1/18/12

Toronto @ Boston -9.5  ( B )  Play on Boston  and  Detroit

Detroit @ Minnesota - 8.5 ( A )

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#12
Posted: 1/18/2012 5:19:05 PM

If Minnesota and Toronto are fades tonight, shouldn't GS also be a fade? They have covered their last two, have a winning % of .385 and are on the road in NJ.

Thanks

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#13
Posted: 1/18/2012 5:41:19 PM

Yes you are right Big Ten. Sorry I have been watching the market most of the day . I will add that play

1/18/12

Toronto @ Boston -9.5  ( B )  Play on Boston  and  Detroit and NJ

Detroit @ Minnesota - 8.5 ( A )

GS @ NJ  -3 (A) 

thanks guys   I promise I will be a better host ...

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#14
Posted: 1/18/2012 10:42:39 PM
3 for 3 knox....thats a sweet start. Thanks. Looking forward to the next set.
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#15
Posted: 1/19/2012 12:23:39 AM

1/18/12

Toronto @ Boston -9.5  ( B )  WINNER

Detroit @ Minnesota - 8.5 ( A ) WINNER

GS @ NJ  -3 (A)  WINNER

System results

A  2-1

B  1-0   + 3 units

 

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#16
Posted: 1/19/2012 3:07:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Knoxpoker:

I backtested last yr . There were 8 streaks of 4 ats and 5 ats for teams below 425 win pct.

For the 2010 NBA season

Toronto had 4 wins ATS in a row

Milwaukee had one 4 win ATS in a row and a 5 streak ATS in a row

Detroit had one 5 Streak win  ATS

Charlotte had one 5 streak win  ATS

Minnesota had one 5 ATS win streak

Clippers had one 4 game ATS streak

Sacramento had one 4 game ATS streak

The rest were 2 and 3 game streaks ..


Do you know the dates and lines for these loses? maybe a filter can be made?

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#17
Posted: 1/19/2012 5:32:46 PM

I just use the covers past performance tab and go from yr to year ... When I looked at this system , I was looking for something easy and I knew I wanted to bet against the worst teams in the NBA . So far so good going 3-0 but I assume there will be ups and downs .. But I am looking to get at least 25 units from now until April 26th ..

Do you know the NCAA basketball system from kineprofesser??

That question was for AIR1

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#18
Posted: 1/19/2012 6:40:11 PM
I did a search for the system after reading your post yesterday, but did not get details about it.
As for 'past performance tab' I dont know it. I would check past results through scores link and back track.

I was hoping you had some more detailed results. i.e. A games B games results (maybe C/D game, home/away. At the least if you kept the dates, we could have looked into it some more and maybe found a common filter of sorts.
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Posted: 1/19/2012 6:58:11 PM
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=100965010 this is the link for the NCAA basketball system .
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#20
Posted: 1/19/2012 6:59:09 PM
No plays tonight ---
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#21
Posted: 1/19/2012 8:57:23 PM
GL, think your gonna be on to something here.  
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#22
Posted: 1/20/2012 8:21:27 AM
No plays today, I think.
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#23
Posted: 1/20/2012 3:38:49 PM
thanks for the link knox. I was wondering what kine's system was.
His system is very simple, just like yours. But thinking of getting the best bang for our buck, I was hoping we could find a filter to help. Even if it's as simple as do not play if the team is at home during chase or playing against other bottom (or top) ranked teams. Or if line is over 10/under 2.5, etc....

Either with or without the filter i'll be tailing you.
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#24
Posted: 1/20/2012 6:43:58 PM

No plays for either system ...

The kine system for NCAA is 6-9 right now .. But is known to catch fire . Last yr it was 35-17 .

As for the filters I will try to work on that ..

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#25
Posted: 1/20/2012 6:58:06 PM
didn't mean to make you do all the work knox. thanks though! you never know when you could miss the simplest things.
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