Does Anybody Follow Line Movements?

Forum: Systems & Strategies
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Does Anybody Follow Line Movements?
tirepressure20 PM tirepressure20
Joined: Mar 2010
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tirepressure20
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Posted: 1/14/2012 2:43:54 PM
Do you guys follow the line movements which factor in to which team you pick when you're doing your research?

I know some people swear by it, others not so much. I didn't really pay that much attention to it except when I am listening to podcasts about gambling and hear that the wiseguys are on a certain side. I'll jump on it too and for the most time it always works out and I will win with them.

I know it's hard to determine if the line is moving from the betting public, or if it is moving from wiseguy money.

I found a website that compiles information on matchups and on that page they list the "Team Line Action" stating:
"Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%".

For tonight's NBA matchup IND @ WAS it says that the OVER is favored by evidence of the line movement. However it says that the public is only correct 51% of the time when moving the total line. According to the statement above, since this is below the 57% that they recommended, it isn't worth betting the over solely because the line shifted in that direction.

Does anyone have any information tracking this system? How effective is it?
braves5795 PM braves5795
Joined: Apr 2008
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Posted: 1/18/2012 10:18:17 AM
tirepressure, would be glad to share some ideas i have on line movement, that hit about 2 out of 3
rjumawan PM rjumawan
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Posted: 1/20/2012 3:13:33 AM
line movments are good but consider at times the value may be gone if it moves to much.seen it happen way to many time.GL 
rjumawan PM rjumawan
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Posted: 1/20/2012 3:22:40 AM
line movments are good but consider at times the value may be gone if it moves to much.seen it happen way to many time.GL 
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