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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Above .500 teams 2 game chase
mindtides
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#1
Posted: 12/31/2011 10:22:22 AM
Lets see if any team at least 2 games above .500 coming off of at least 2 losses, can cover or win their next 2 games.


Valparaiso (a) -6.5

San Francisco (a) -5.5

Charlotte (a) +11.5


Minnesota (a) -125

Florida (a) -125

Detroit (a) -170

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mindtides
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#2
Posted: 12/31/2011 11:37:04 AM
Should clarify, at least 1 of their next 2 games.
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#3
Posted: 12/31/2011 12:03:12 PM
interesting concept 

any backtests ?? 


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mindtides
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#4
Posted: 12/31/2011 1:16:07 PM
I have not, if anyone would like to, that would be great. If not lets give it a trial run.
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mindtides
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#5
Posted: 12/31/2011 1:36:43 PM
I just realized that none of the NHL I listed qualify, was looking at their last 5 games in reverse order. So only the CBB games should be considered.
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mindtides
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#6
Posted: 12/31/2011 1:41:50 PM
Correct NHL plays.

PHOENIX +105

BUFFALO -130

TORONTO +115

ST. LOUIS +130

DALLAS +170


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mindtides
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#7
Posted: 1/1/2012 8:08:29 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by mindtides] Lets see if any team at least 2 games above .500 coming off of at least 2 losses, can cover or win their next 2 games.


Valparaiso (a) -6.5   

San Francisco (a) -5.5 

Charlotte (a) +11.5 


Minnesota (a) -125  no play

Florida (a) -125  no play

Detroit (a) -170  no play



PHOENIX +105  

BUFFALO -130 

TORONTO +115 

ST. LOUIS +130 

DALLAS +170 
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mindtides
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#8
Posted: 1/1/2012 8:24:07 AM
CBB

PITTSBURGH -6 (a)

NORTHWESTERN -8½ (a)

NORTHERN IOWA -14 (a)




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senbet
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#9
Posted: 1/14/2012 10:57:01 AM
you might have something here. should have kept it going
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mindtides
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#10
Posted: 1/15/2012 10:42:04 AM
ok, going to continue this with a few filters..... must be coming off of at least one loss straight up, playing a sub .500 team and must be playing at home.... and will limit it to 2 game chase.

1/15 plays


CBB[852] MISSOURI ST-10-110  
 
CBB[854] DENVER U-16½-110

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mindtides
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#11
Posted: 1/15/2012 10:44:38 AM
I think this angle might work without the chase as well, we will see.
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mindtides
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#12
Posted: 1/15/2012 5:09:24 PM
mizz.st -10

denver u -16.5

Den was up by 28 middle of 2nd and I guess pulled there whole first team????

Anyways decided I will close this thread and start a new one based on the same principles, but with new filters and no chasing...
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#13
Posted: 2/20/2012 9:44:17 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by mindtides:

Lets see if any team at least 2 games above .500 coming off of at least 2 losses, can cover or win their next 2 games.
 

That's back-testable at http://killersports.com/nba.py/query?sid=guest&text=+&=1&submit=query 

With a query of: Sum(W@team and season) - Sum(L@team and season) >= 2 and p:margin<0 and pp:margin<0

The SU is 1306-909 and ATS 1094-1083-38, this is how a team does when it is at least 2 games above .500 at the present game and has just lost two previous games in a row.

If that team lost the third game, how often did it win the fourth: SU 430-323 and ATS 367-369-17.  And, if the team won the third, how often did it win the fourth: SU 853-597 and ATS 727-701-22. 

I couldn't find a way to insure that the team was at least 2 games above .500 after the third game.

Regardless .. nothing here, and this data base goes back at least to 1995.

 

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