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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL Reg System
Riceboi send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#26
Posted: 12/20/2011 7:55:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by buntyketti:

Nice start Gent, do you by any chance know how the system has performed last 3+ years. 

Keep cashing it 


i don't think he has back tested this system.
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#27
Posted: 12/20/2011 9:33:18 AM

the idea for this system came from results from last season but this was in no way a proper backtest....so in short the results are for this season only and i havent carried out a backtest for any previous seasons....

anyway i will post todays play and update once they put out a line for the minn/cal game....i dont expect the line for this game to affect our play for today...maybe cal opening as a small fav...but will post later....

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#28
Posted: 12/20/2011 9:54:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by English_Gent:

the idea for this system came from results from last season but this was in no way a proper backtest....so in short the results are for this season only and i havent carried out a backtest for any previous seasons....

anyway i will post todays play and update once they put out a line for the minn/cal game....i dont expect the line for this game to affect our play for today...maybe cal opening as a small fav...but will post later....

I guess what they are asking is what were the results from last season?  Since you already know...

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#29
Posted: 12/20/2011 11:16:58 AM

the idea for this system came from results from last season but this was in no way a proper backtest....so in short the results are for this season only and i havent carried out a backtest for any previous seasons....

 

Hectar...i hope the bold text above clears this up...

Think of it this way...have you ever followed results in a sport for a few weeks or so with an idea something might be worth trying....a trend appears or something worth looking into....thats maybe how most systems are thought of....same with this....

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#30
Posted: 12/20/2011 2:21:34 PM
mr gent the play looks to be the winnipeg jets they are favored higher than the flames tonight.
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#31
Posted: 12/20/2011 5:08:22 PM

Last night Vancouver gave us another win with a 4-0 over Minnesota to keep the system rolling on....6 wins on covers and 11 in a row overall....

19/12/11

Game A....Vancouver Canucks....-0.5 / -114.....1.14u to win 1u.....WIN......

YTD....Series...6-0.....+6units

for today....i really dont like days like this...doesnt happen very often where 2 teams open with the same line....but Winnipeg Jets and Calgary Flames both opened at -150....the Jets though have had the edge all day upto now and still are the more favoured team on the ml...usually i wait till the closing line on days like this but tonight thats not possible for me so i hope the odds dont change.....they are however a clear fav on the -0.5 reg line that we use....

also this is the first game for a while that we arent betting on one of the top tier teams to win....i much prefer when we have the -180 to -200+ favs such as the Sharks or Blackhawks bought down on the reg line than the scenario we have tonight...system seems to work better on these plays....at least we get plus money on tonights play....lets hope they still pull through.....

 

20/12/11

Game A......Winnipeg Jets....-0.5 / +104......1u to win 1.04u

 

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#32
Posted: 12/21/2011 12:23:38 AM
well looks like the chase is on for wednesday
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#33
Posted: 12/21/2011 1:17:19 AM

The Jets lose 3-2 to end a decent run.....we move on to tonight...

Looking back over my previous post i mention that the system seems to work better on bigger favs bought down (the -180 - 200+ range)....well i wonder if this is true?....i will go over the season results to see if a filter such as only playing a fav over a certain price for example can be used to cut out any losses...of course this might reduce the amount of plays and losses but i will have to balance this out with how many wins this takes away from the system as well....

I want to point out that any filter brought in is for future plays only and will not be used to alter any previously posted results or records....just want to make that clear as we have all seen magical system results when filter are applied after the plays !

20/12/11

Game A......Winnipeg Jets....-0.5 / +104......1u to win 1.04u....LOSS.....

 

YTD.....Series (Completed).......6-0.....+6units

Pending Series......Game A Loss.... -1 unit

 

for today....no confusion here with this play....they opened at -180 favs compared to -175 for Chicago...

 

21/12/11

Game B......San Jose Sharks.... -0.5 / -121.....2.42u to win 2u

bol....

 

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#34
Posted: 12/21/2011 7:35:28 AM
I wouldn't even bother with the ML just look at the reg line and play if its -115 of higher
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#35
Posted: 12/21/2011 12:39:04 PM
I like the fact you only chase three games, eliminates the bankroll burning bad stretch that makes most chase systems losers.

Gl, im following
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#36
Posted: 12/21/2011 2:14:13 PM

Thanks for the suggestion Hectar but if only it were that easy....looking back you lose too many wins...i mean just to give you recent examples....19/12...Van, 14/12...Bos, 13/12...Bos, 9/12...Wsh....all under -115 reg line....there are many more...

Anyway after going through the seasons results it seems that taking out any fav that opens under -160 makes the system more reliable...it does'nt get rid of a system loss....merely moves it to another date....however it does reduce the amount of times the system has gone to C bet from 7 to 4.....on the flip side a few wins are lost....but i am willing to trade those....the system now comes out at 36-1 as of today for the season....

This system is a work in progress so i am always hoping to improve it....from today these will be the system rules i will be using....it does'nt change the record posted here on covers....if anyone is following then bet at your own risk, i cant guarantee success and to be honest looking at the systems floating around on this and other forums its difficult for anyone to guarantee success....its just about trying to come up with a profitable system at the end of the season..

Rules:

Do not play any fav that opens on Pinnacle at under -160...

When two or more teams open at the same odds then that day becomes a NO PLAY...

i have been burnt a couple of times now with 2 teams opening at the same price such as last night pick.....if the books cant decide who is the fav then thats enough for me to lay off the bet for that day...

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#37
Posted: 12/21/2011 3:12:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by English_Gent:

Thanks for the suggestion Hectar but if only it were that easy....looking back you lose too many wins...i mean just to give you recent examples....19/12...Van, 14/12...Bos, 13/12...Bos, 9/12...Wsh....all under -115 reg line....there are many more...

Anyway after going through the seasons results it seems that taking out any fav that opens under -160 makes the system more reliable...it does'nt get rid of a system loss....merely moves it to another date....however it does reduce the amount of times the system has gone to C bet from 7 to 4.....on the flip side a few wins are lost....but i am willing to trade those....the system now comes out at 36-1 as of today for the season....

This system is a work in progress so i am always hoping to improve it....from today these will be the system rules i will be using....it does'nt change the record posted here on covers....if anyone is following then bet at your own risk, i cant guarantee success and to be honest looking at the systems floating around on this and other forums its difficult for anyone to guarantee success....its just about trying to come up with a profitable system at the end of the season..

Rules:

Do not play any fav that opens on Pinnacle at under -160...

When two or more teams open at the same odds then that day becomes a NO PLAY...

i have been burnt a couple of times now with 2 teams opening at the same price such as last night pick.....if the books cant decide who is the fav then thats enough for me to lay off the bet for that day...



sounds like a plan.

I think the sharks will take it tonight to put us back on track.
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#38
Posted: 12/21/2011 11:20:19 PM
The Sharks are looking good! 5-1 in the 1st Period.
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#39
Posted: 12/22/2011 1:18:56 AM

The Sharks take care of the B bet with a 7-2 win over Tampa to pick up 2 units and clear this chase.....

21/12/11

Game B......San Jose Sharks.... -0.5 / -121.....2.42u to win 2u....WIN.....

 

YTD.....Series (Completed).......7-0.....+7units

 

for tonight.....looking at the odds both the Rangers and the Predators opened on the same line - 170 , this means a no play for the system under the amended rules....

 

22/12/11 - No Play

 

be back for fridays games....

 

 

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#40
Posted: 12/22/2011 2:11:00 AM
sharks
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#41
Posted: 12/22/2011 10:34:59 AM
I started backtesting last season and thru the first six weeks the results arent good at all. There were already four three game losing streaks thru the first six weeks. I know some have talked about skipping the first month but even month 2 started off really bad.

I was reading a thread here a few days ago about what a crazy rate faves have been winning this season which may explain this years success. Maybe things picked up last season I dont really know but just wanted to post the little research that I did. Gl
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#42
Posted: 12/22/2011 12:14:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CalifDreamin:

I started backtesting last season and thru the first six weeks the results arent good at all. There were already four three game losing streaks thru the first six weeks. I know some have talked about skipping the first month but even month 2 started off really bad.

I was reading a thread here a few days ago about what a crazy rate faves have been winning this season which may explain this years success. Maybe things picked up last season I dont really know but just wanted to post the little research that I did. Gl


you should see how long the losing streaks were. I was thinking of chasing for 5 games or even an unlimited chase.
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#43
Posted: 12/22/2011 1:56:56 PM
The longest losing streak was three games so maybe there is some.potential here
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#44
Posted: 12/22/2011 10:09:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CalifDreamin:

The longest losing streak was three games so maybe there is some.potential here


awesome! my plan may work lol
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#45
Posted: 12/23/2011 1:01:55 AM
looks like tomorrow the canucks are the clear highest fav.
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#46
Posted: 12/23/2011 10:59:44 AM

Calgary are on a bit of a roll...2 wins back to back with one against the Red Wings last night...and i have to say great value today for the underdog bettors out there at +214 on pinny at the minute....but todays pick is also looking good with a streak of their own...

Todays play is the highest reg line i have seen this season....lets hope they are worth it....

 

23/12/11

Game A........Vancouver Canucks...... -0.5 / -150......1.5u to win 1u....

 

on a side note there looks to be some great -0.5 bets on the board today with Boston and San Jose....but then again everything always looks good on paper !!....

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#47
Posted: 12/23/2011 11:29:02 AM
Thats because CAL is on a back to back.  VAN has also won 9 of the last 10 vs CAL.  As well VAN beat them 5-1 a few weeks ago.
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#48
Posted: 12/23/2011 4:19:28 PM
I will try, like Riceboi said, to apply a 5 games chasing plan, with OT games. 
My target will be 0.75% of my bankroll for each serie.
Each time my bankroll grow of 10%, I raise my target of 10% too.
Since 5 days, I'm 4-0 with +3% (3 levels A and 1 level B).

For sure Riceboi, a 5 games plan is safer than a 3 games plan, but with the same bankroll, you need to low your target profit per serie.
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#49
Posted: 12/24/2011 1:32:47 AM
canucks
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Posted: 12/24/2011 1:54:09 AM

Sometimes stats, trends etc dont amount to much....on paper this looked a winner....it wasnt....

23/12/11

Game A........Vancouver Canucks...... -0.5 / -150......1.5u to win 1u....LOSS.....

 

YTD.....Series (Completed).......7-0.....+7units

Pending Series......Game A Loss.... -1.5 units

 

Couple of days off for the NHL now....still NFL today, NBA starts tomorrow....

Be back on Boxing day with the play.....

 

 

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