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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NFL Sack Props
aerojackel send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1
Posted: 11/12/2011 12:06:28 AM

Been doing some number collecting and crunching and may have something interesting for the NFL - O/U Sack Proposition.

I am posting here instead of NFL forum because when making plays I am looking at teams past preformances and what they contribute to a sack total, along with the range of sacks from 0 - 6+ and those totals for the season that I have recorded.

Going to try to back test 2010/11 season shortly.

Lets see how it goes and follow at your own risk.

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#2
Posted: 11/12/2011 11:55:14 PM

Lines are from Pinny

Ari/Phil - 5 Sacks - Over -120

Tenn/Caro - 3.5 Sacks - Under +117 - Tenn has only had a few games get to 4 sacks

Hou/TBay - 3.5 Sacks - Over -105

Wash/Mia - 6 Sacks - Over -101 - both teams get and give a monster amount of sacks

Jac/Indy - 4 Sacks - Over -102 - hope for a push here

Den/KC - 4.5 Sacks- Under -109 - need 5 to win -it could happen?

Buff/Dal - 3.5 Sacks - Under +106 - Buffalo has one game that has 4+ sacks this year

NO/Atl - 4 Sacks - Over -104 - push or better

St. L/Cle - 5.5 Sacks - Under-127 - the numbers look like this should fly over and the juice is high - but 6 or more to win (on an over pick), it could happen - but Balt and Pitts could not get this number last week, why would the Rams and Browns?

Pit/Cin - 4.5 Sacks - Under +124 - would like the number more if it was 5 - I like the plus money it was in Pitts last game for the under and it won.

Thats it for the first games on Sunday.  Will see how they go and take it from there.

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#3
Posted: 11/13/2011 4:07:04 PM

2nd wave of games

Bal/Sea -5.5 Sack - Under -102 - I have been waffling on this one for over or under - still not sure but went under

Det/Chi -4.5 Sacks - Under +128 - Chi has been protecting Cutler a lot better recently

N Eng/NYJ -4 Sacks - Over -113 - hope for the push - there are a ton of prop bets for this game.

SF/NYG - 5 Sacks - Over -108 - both teams can sack so I'll take over

Will update later

 

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#4
Posted: 11/14/2011 8:27:31 PM

MNF

Min/GB - 5 Sacks - Over- 113 - I think these guys can get to 5 - should be a fun game to watch no matter what.

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#5
Posted: 11/16/2011 10:33:08 PM

Week 10 -Round up

10 Wins - 5 Loses - By betting to win 1 unit on the -ve and risking 1 unit on the +ve - I should have explained that as the betting strategy for Money Management - I get a total of plus 5.34 Units

You can bet anyway you like.  Right now I don't have a favourite play or something that would be considered a higher or lower value play.

Not too bad - will post Week 11 as they become available.

Cheers

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#6
Posted: 11/16/2011 10:47:51 PM

Week 11

YTD is 10 - 5 - good for 5.34 Units - betting to win on the -ve prices and risking 1 unit on the +ve prices

NYJ/Den -4.5 Sacks - Under -116 - Short week for NYJ and Den, D is tired after New England, Den has some weird Off right now -

BOL

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#7
Posted: 11/16/2011 11:43:57 PM
Only place I found that prop was at bookmaker and its at 4 for even money.  What book you use?
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#8
Posted: 11/17/2011 1:54:25 AM
I use Pinnacle.  If I had 4... - you now have the option for a push.
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#9
Posted: 11/20/2011 1:14:05 AM

Nice start of the week with NYJ/Den going Under

For the first round of Sunday games they are listed as follows:

Buf/Mia - 4 Sacks - Under -120 - Buff has only had one game get to 4 sacks in 9 weeks of playing, Mia has had every week get to 4 or more, this one is tough to say which way it goes

Car/Det -4.5 Sacks - Under -108 - think this one will stay under

Cin/Bal -4.5 Sacks - Over-111 - Cincy had 5 last week themselves, however this week I think both teams will contribute to the total.  Balt will want to take out some frustrations

Wash/Dal - 5 Sacks - Over +124 - both rank high up with getting sacks, like the plus money

Jack/Clev -4.5 Sacks - Under +113 - Needing 5 sacks to win makes this one a tough one to take as an over.  Both teams are so-so in the sack numbers

Oak/Minn - 5 Sacks - Over +116 - Minny has been a strong team in getting sacks, Oak has been not bad.

TBay/GrBay -4 Sacks -Over - 101 - Think this game can get at least 4, anymore than that and it is a win

Tenn/Atl -3.5 Sack - Under -105 - Seems tough to stay under this but both teams struggle to get the QB

Sea/St. L -5 Sacks -Under +103 - Think this can stay under this total

Will post rest later - BOL

 

 

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#10
Posted: 11/20/2011 3:51:01 PM

Ari/SF - 5.5 Sacks - Juice is too high on the under for a play - Need 6 for the ver to go - so No Play.

SD/Chi -4.5 Sacks - Under +125 - bit of a long shot

 

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#11
Posted: 11/20/2011 8:11:23 PM

For the Sunday Nighter

NYG/Philly - 5 Sacks - Over +147 - weird number for teams that can get the QB kill.  The Giants lead with 30 themselves.  Should be a good game.

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#12
Posted: 11/21/2011 7:21:25 PM

The Eagles sure had Eli on the run.  At least the little bit I watched.  Came close to getting 5 for a push but it was not to be.

MNF

KC/ New Eng - 3.5 Sacks - Under +104 - Tough to stay under but KC doesn't contribute a whole lot of sacks

GL

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#13
Posted: 11/21/2011 9:52:43 PM

MNF is a bust and the 2nd quarter isn't even done. 

Tally for week 11 is:

8 Wins, 4 Losses and 1 push - good for 4.97 Units , ( also had the Ari/SF game correct but did not play, so will not count in totals)

Correction from last week Unit tally.  I had 5.34 Units.  Should have been 5.21 Units - messed up with the juice.

YTD is 18 - 9 - 1 - for Plus 10.18 Units

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#14
Posted: 11/26/2011 10:27:47 PM

Sorry I did not get Thurday games posted.  Will not be added to numbers but the picks went 2-1.  Was glad to see in 3rd week of this winnners are happening more often than losers.  Hopefully the posted ones for Sunday's game remain with that trend.

Ari/St L - 5.5 Sacks - Under-103 - I know the Ram give up a bunch of sacks but 6 to win is a bunch

Buf/NYJ - 3.5 Sacks - Under -116 - Buf has only had more than 4 sacks once this season. 

Caro/Indy - 4 Sacks - Under -116 - both teams low onthe sack numbers

Cle/Cinnci - 4 Sack - Over -103 - think 4 or more can be had in this game

Hous/Jack -4.5 Sacks - Over -104 - Both teams have a good number in the sack totals and Hous has a good defence

Min/Atl -4.5 Sacks - Under -116 - Minny is 2nd in sacks but Atl is terrible.  Ponder can run away from trouble

TBay/Tenn - 3.5 Sacks - No play - juice on the Under is too high.  Numbers and records say it is under but 4 sacks is not impossible - Again - No Play

Chi/Oak - 4.5 Sacks - Under -108 - Chi has been protecting the QB very well and Cutler has played well.But Cutler is out and I think more runs will be called for offence.  I woud take the over if Chi had a better sacking def

NE/Phill- 4 Sacks - Over -112 - surprised this number is not higher - bith teams get after the QB well

Hope to get rest up on Sunday - not sure on the Den/SD game.  Good luck with any plays you make

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#15
Posted: 11/29/2011 4:30:59 AM
how would it work if you did this?

if the number it low go for the under because the book thinks the sacks will be lower.

if the number is higher hit the over because they think it will be higher.

not sure what that high/low number would be. for example, make4 or 4.5 could be under and 5+ hit the over or something like that.

what you think?
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#16
Posted: 11/29/2011 4:32:45 AM
or could go opposite of what i said.  higher number means hit under and low number means hit over.  not sure what one would of done better, record wise.
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#17
Posted: 11/30/2011 10:19:46 PM

This week sucked going 3 - 4 -1 posted.  YTD is 21-13-2.  Lost 1.52 Units.  Thread total is now Plus 8.66 Units

MNF had the most juice on it I have seen for these props yet.  It was -204 for the Under.  It hit, but yikes that is a lot to make a Unit.

Wonder what this week holds.

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#18
Posted: 11/30/2011 10:32:55 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Riceboi:

how would it work if you did this?

if the number it low go for the under because the book thinks the sacks will be lower.

if the number is higher hit the over because they think it will be higher.

not sure what that high/low number would be. for example, make4 or 4.5 could be under and 5+ hit the over or something like that.

what you think?

I was thinking of something like that before I started to break teams down week by week.  I also tracked the number of sacks each game had.

4 sacks and over has hit so far at a 65% clip in 2011.  5 sacks and over is at 49%  Trouble is the number set in the prop ranges from 3.5 to 6, so I am trying to see if there is a filter or something to make certain plays.

So far in 3 weeks and a number of 5.5 sacks or more it has been Under every time.  It has been set at that 4 times.

One team that has been crazy in all of this is Buffalo - only once has there been 4 or more sacks in their games (10-1 for Under 4)

So, overall I'm not sure a number can be selected as a point as to which way a game is thought to go.

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#19
Posted: 12/4/2011 1:44:02 AM

Hopefully this week can be a positive one.  This weeks picks are:

Houst/Atl - 4 Sacks - Over -103

Caro/Tbay - 3.5 Sacks - Under +103 - this is tough one to stay under but both teams don't get a lot of Sacks

Cinnci/Pitts - 4.5 Sacks - Over +102 - Both teams can add to the total and Big Ben was taken down 5 times last time these guys played

Den/Minn - 5 Sacks - Over +132 - Since week 3 Minny has gotten 5 or better sack total in their games.  Bit of a long shot with Tebow running around but he can be caught, so can Ponder

Indy/N Eng - 4 Sacks - not sure on this game - think it should go over but the favourite is the under and it probably will.

KC/Chi -4.5 Sacks - Under -123 - KC is last in sacks - think this one will stay under

NYJ/Wash - 4.5 Sacks - Under +111 - another long shot but who knows it could happen

Oak/Mia - 4.5 Sacks- Over is the play but you gotta spend a lot to take the over   - no play

Tenn/Buff - 3.5 Sacks - Buff is 10-1 for staying under 4 sacks.  - No play as the juice is high on the under.

BOL

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#20
Posted: 12/4/2011 3:36:23 PM

Dal/Ari - 4.5 Sacks - the over is heavily favoured - no play

G Bay/NYG - 4.5 Sacks - Over +126 - Both teams seem to get the QB - I like the plus money on this one

StL / SF 5.5 Sacks - I think every time the number it is 5.5 it stays Under.  Will play the Under here too - 126 for odds

Bal/Cle - 4.5 Sacks - Balt had 9 last week.  Seems like 5 should be easy to get for the over. - No play for me - can't make up my mind on this one.

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#21
Posted: 12/4/2011 8:11:33 PM

This week has sucked now as well.

Think today stands at 2-5-1.

SNF is Det/NO- 3.5 Sacks - both teams have been going Under 4 for the last 2 or 3 games, Suh is out, taking the Under at -105, we'll see what happens.

Will probably shut this down after tonight.  2 nice weeks to start followed by 2 weak ones.  Thought I had someting but I want to do some refining and tweaks to improve the predictions

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