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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL Under Chase System
k-murder send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#76
Posted: 10/20/2011 10:35:38 AM
In my analysis, assuming $100, 200, 400, 800, 1600 played depending on the chase #, do you think that using just the 1,2 & 5 unit plays might be advisable. The breakdown of pnl divided by betamt (ignores vig), the breakdown at each unit is:

341,000 42,734 9,319 22,472 49,625 155,722
 $340,800
 $329,200
 $339,200
 $340,800
 $1,691,000

Units 1& 2 have never lost money in any year (even 2008). Unit 5 lost a small amount of money in 2008, but made money all other years. Unit 3&4 lost money in 2 of the 6 years. Units 1& 2 outperformed Units 3&4 in 3 years, underperformed 1 year, and had about the same % return in the other 2 years.

Please do not take this post as me saying this system is better, I'm just offering it out for thought. I respect all of the hard work people have put in for this and similar systems.
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#77
Posted: 10/20/2011 10:39:22 AM
My previous post did not copy properly from excel, here is the pnl by unit type:

units   pnl         betamt   roi
1-unit $31,573  $341k   9.3%
2-unit  42,734    341k   12.5%
3-unit    9,319    329k   2.8%
4-unit   22,472   339k   6.6%
5-unit   49,625   341k   14.6%
Total    155,722  1,691k   9.2%


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#78
Posted: 10/20/2011 1:15:58 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by k-murder:

You're right, you are 29-0. Wrong equation in excel. Anyways, here's the fixed results from past seasons (sorry for the error):

2011: 29-0
2010: 567-12 (552-8)
2009: 559-8
2008: 528-22
2007: 518-13
2006: 527-17
2005: 524-18
Total: 3,252-90

I have a question how are u counting each year.. are u counting playoffs too. also are counting OT/SO games within the last 5 games of the year for the team, cause if so u shouldnt be since this is a 5 game chase. i just recounted 2010 and i got my previous total 552-8, for 2009 i have a record of 535-5 and for 2008 515-17

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#79
Posted: 10/20/2011 1:49:59 PM
you're right, i am counting games in the last 5 games of the year. Also, if there is a push, i end up stepping up the unit. if it's the 5 and final game of the chase, and there is a push, then I dont go to a 6th, which is against the strategy - I was doing more of the back of envelope to see how it worked in previous years.

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#80
Posted: 10/20/2011 2:40:17 PM
I think this works because during the past 15 years, 52.2% of games have gone under (very surprising). This means that on average, where you would lose about 3.15% of bets (at 50% win probability to the 5th power), you now would lose less than 2.50% of bets (at 52.2%).

The only year in the last 11 years (2000-2011) where the Under % dropped below 51% was 2008 - incidently the only losing year of the strategy.

I do also think the streak coming into the OT game may make an impact. For example, if the specific team has already hit 3 overs in a row, for you to lose this chase, the over would have to hit 8 games in a row. When doing analysis, a team seems to have a 48% chance of going over if it just went over (if the over streak is between 1-4). To go from 5 games over in a row to 6, the percentage drops to 42.6%, then 40%. So I think there is definitely some benefit to the strategy from this.


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#81
Posted: 10/20/2011 4:25:39 PM
quick question, would toronto be an A & B today since they had back to back SO/OT games? or do you only play the B side? thanks.
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#82
Posted: 10/20/2011 4:35:34 PM
System is 29-0                 +92.95

Teams we are chasing

Colorado [A], NJ [A] [A], Philly [B], TB [B], Detroit [A], Minny [B], Chicago [B], Toronto [A] [B], Winnipeg [A]

Games tonight

Toronto [B] / Boston Under 5  +113   10 to win 11.30

Washington / Philly [B] Under 5.5 -111  10 to win 9

Islanders / Tb [B]   Under 5.5  +105 10 to win 10.50

Winnipeg [A] / Ottawa Under 6 -118 5 to win 4.25

Chicago [B] / Colorado [A] Under 5.5 -106  15 to win 14.10

Minny [B] / Edmonton Under 5 +105  10 to win 10.50

Toronto [A] / Boston Under 5  +127 5 to win 6.35

Forgot to add the Toronto A game

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#83
Posted: 10/20/2011 11:07:36 PM
I think I figured out why 2008 was a bad year for this strategy - because of the differences between the average goals scored per game and the average over/under line were much bigger than in other years. Historic:

Yr      Avg O/U    Avg Gs
2006: 5.84           5.89
2007: 5.48           5.56
2008: 5.55           5.82
2009: 5.54           5.68
2010: 5.44           5.58
2011: 5.45           5.41

I think even though 52%+ of games go under during the past few years defies gambling logic where it should average 50% over time as in other sports, it 52% should continue because vegas has tried to adjust over/unders lower, but it doesnt seem to work.
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glefkb01
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#84
Posted: 10/21/2011 6:26:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by robwalton:

System is 29-0                 +92.95

Teams we are chasing

Colorado [A], NJ [A] [A], Philly [B], TB [B], Detroit [A], Minny [B], Chicago [B], Toronto [A] [B], Winnipeg [A]

Games tonight

Toronto [B] / Boston Under 5  +113   10 to win 11.30

Washington / Philly [B] Under 5.5 -111  10 to win 9

Islanders / Tb [B]   Under 5.5  +105 10 to win 10.50

Winnipeg [A] / Ottawa Under 6 -118 5 to win 4.25

Chicago [B] / Colorado [A] Under 5.5 -106  15 to win 14.10

Minny [B] / Edmonton Under 5 +105  10 to win 10.50

Toronto [A] / Boston Under 5  +127 5 to win 6.35

Forgot to add the Toronto A game

Pulled the trigger last night...    came out on top    NICE JOB.

You know GASMAN has a similar system, he only chases to 3 and filters out totals at 5...taking the over instead of the under...  he ended up winning Tor/Bos and Was/Phi taking the over but lost the Min/EDM game.    

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#85
Posted: 10/21/2011 8:55:51 AM

System is 34-0                 +107.30

Teams we are chasing

NJ [A] [A], Philly [C], Detroit [A], Toronto [B] [C], Minny [A], Edmonton [A], Rangers [A], Calgary [A]

Games tonight

SJ / NJ [A] [A]  Under 5 +105            10 to win 10.50

Columbus / Detriot [A] Under 5.5 -114  5 to win 4.40

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#86
Posted: 10/21/2011 2:13:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by k-murder:

I think I figured out why 2008 was a bad year for this strategy - because of the differences between the average goals scored per game and the average over/under line were much bigger than in other years. Historic:

Yr      Avg O/U    Avg Gs
2006: 5.84           5.89
2007: 5.48           5.56
2008: 5.55           5.82
2009: 5.54           5.68
2010: 5.44           5.58
2011: 5.45           5.41

I think even though 52%+ of games go under during the past few years defies gambling logic where it should average 50% over time as in other sports, it 52% should continue because vegas has tried to adjust over/unders lower, but it doesnt seem to work.


Very nice work with the stats!
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#87
Posted: 10/21/2011 4:09:28 PM
So far this year UNDERS are hitting at 57.14%
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glefkb01
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#88
Posted: 10/21/2011 10:04:20 PM
SJ/NJ and DET/CLB didn't hit

MINUS 15 units

BOO
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glefkb01
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#89
Posted: 10/21/2011 10:04:21 PM
SJ/NJ and DET/CLB didn't hit

MINUS 15 units

BOO
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#90
Posted: 10/22/2011 12:20:24 AM
It's a chase system.  Get used to absorbing losses.  Focus on money management and you will also go 8-0.
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#91
Posted: 10/22/2011 8:29:48 AM
Thnx.... I was posting what he and the system lost... I lost 3. 2 on NJ and 1 on Det

Doesn't help when DET hits 4 PPGs
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#92
Posted: 10/22/2011 10:42:45 AM

System is 34-0                 +92.30

Teams we are chasing

NJ [A] [B] [B], Philly [C], Detroit [B], Toronto [B] [C], Minny [A], Edmonton [A], Rangers [A], Calgary [A], SJ [A], Carolina [A], St.Louis [A]

Games tonight

Nashville / Calgary [A] Under 5.5  -143 5 to win 3.50

Minny [A] / Vancouver Under 5.5  -141 5 to win 3.55

Carolina [A] / Winnipeg Under 5.5 -105 5 to win 4.75

Detroit [B] / Washington Under 5.5 -110 10 to win 9.10

NJ [A] [B] [B] / Pittsburgh Under 5 -110 25 to win 22.75

SJ [A] / Boston               Under 5 +115 5 to win 5.75

St.Louis [A] / Philly [C]   Under 5.5 -105 25 to win 23.75

Toronto [B] [C] / Montreal Under 5.5 -143 30 to win 21

Rangers [A] / Edmonton [A] Under 5 +100 10 to win 10

 

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#93
Posted: 10/22/2011 4:28:16 PM
Best of luck tonight Rob, I'm with you on them.

Let's clear some of those C and B bets out tonight 
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#94
Posted: 10/22/2011 5:01:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by robwalton:

Nashville / Calgary [A] Under 5.5  -143 5 to win 3.50

Minny [A] / Vancouver Under 5.5  -141 5 to win 3.55

Carolina [A] / Winnipeg Under 5.5 -105 5 to win 4.75

Detroit [B] / Washington Under 5.5 -110 10 to win 9.10

NJ [A] [B] [B] / Pittsburgh Under 5 -110 25 to win 22.75

SJ [A] / Boston               Under 5 +115 5 to win 5.75

St.Louis [A] / Philly [C]   Under 5.5 -105 25 to win 23.75

Toronto [B] [C] / Montreal Under 5.5 -143 30 to win 21

Rangers [A] / Edmonton [A] Under 5 +100 10 to win 10

 

Big night tonight -

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#95
Posted: 10/22/2011 10:34:29 PM
bad bad night only thing that helps is we got a push in nj / pitsburgh game
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#96
Posted: 10/23/2011 3:40:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by robwalton:

System is 34-0                 +92.30

Teams we are chasing

NJ [A] [B] [B], Philly [C], Detroit [B], Toronto [B] [C], Minny [A], Edmonton [A], Rangers [A], Calgary [A], SJ [A], Carolina [A], St.Louis [A]

Games tonight

Nashville / Calgary [A] Under 5.5  -143 5 to win 3.50

Minny [A] / Vancouver Under 5.5  -141 5 to win 3.55

Carolina [A] / Winnipeg Under 5.5 -105 5 to win 4.75

Detroit [B] / Washington Under 5.5 -110 10 to win 9.10

NJ [A] [B] [B] / Pittsburgh Under 5 -110 25 to win 22.75

SJ [A] / Boston               Under 5 +115 5 to win 5.75

St.Louis [A] / Philly [C]   Under 5.5 -105 25 to win 23.75

Toronto [B] [C] / Montreal Under 5.5 -143 30 to win 21

Rangers [A] / Edmonton [A] Under 5 +100 10 to win 10

 

we still following DET (C); TOR (C)(D); STL (B); PHI(D); SJ(B); NJ (B)(C)(C); CAR (B)

NO GAMES TONIGHT NO WAY TO MAKE UP FOR YESTERDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#97
Posted: 10/23/2011 4:28:24 PM
thats why its called a chase system glefkb
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#98
Posted: 10/23/2011 4:48:10 PM

System is 38-0                 +34.35

Teams we are chasing

NJ [A] [B] [B], Philly [D], Detroit [C], Toronto [A] [C] [D], SJ [B], Carolina [B], St.Louis [B], Minny [A], Vancouver [A], Montreal [A], Colorado [A], Chicago [A]

Games tonight

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#99
Posted: 10/24/2011 11:09:41 AM
Trying to be funny. I know its a chase.....my guy collects on Tuesday and I have to make some back before then. Didn't want to chance it on NFL even though I woulda shoulda coulda won on KC AND MINN. What's the plays today?
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#100
Posted: 10/24/2011 12:51:42 PM

System is 38-0                 +34.35

Teams we are chasing

NJ [A] [B] [B], Philly [D], Detroit [C], Toronto [A] [C] [D], SJ [B], Carolina [B], St.Louis [B], Minny [A], Vancouver [A], Montreal [A], Colorado [A], Chicago [A]

Games tonight

Toronto [A] [C] [D] / Philly [D] Under 5.5 +110 105 to win 115.50

Florida / Montreal [A]  Under 5   +121               5 to win 6.05

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