NHL Under Chase System

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL Under Chase System
TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/18/2011 10:06:44 AM
good stuff Rob
giantONE PM giantONE
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Posted: 10/18/2011 3:33:46 PM
Lets do this 
Luckydan PM Luckydan
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Posted: 10/18/2011 9:38:17 PM
Please clarify something for me. If you have a team playing their C game of the chase and a team playing their A game in the same game, what would be the total base units played on this game?


Thanks.

Good Luck.
xgame PM xgame
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Posted: 10/18/2011 10:48:19 PM
wow some game is playing double unit!!!
djcuse PM djcuse
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Posted: 10/19/2011 1:32:55 AM
QUOTEYou'd wager 4 units on the game...


Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Please clarify something for me. If you have a team playing their C game of the chase and a team playing their A game in the same game, what would be the total base units played on this game?


Thanks.

Good Luck.
djcuse PM djcuse
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Posted: 10/19/2011 1:34:17 AM
^^^^ Correction, you'd wager 5 units on the game...
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 10/19/2011 6:24:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by robwalton:

System is 23-0                 +79.25

Teams we are chasing

Rangers [B], Colorado [A], Columbus [B], NJ [A] [A], Montreal [A], LA [A], Philly [A], TB [B], Florida [B], Detroit [A], Minny [A], Boston [A], Chicago [A], Toronto [A]

Games tonight

Dallas / Columbus [B] Under 5.5  -135 10 to win 7.40

Florida [B] / Washington Under 5.5 -120 10 to win 8.30

Carolina / Boston [A] Under 5.5 -130       5 to win 3.85

Pittsburgh / Minny [A] Under 5.5 -143      5 to win 3.50

Philly [A] / Ottawa Under 5.5 -110           5 to win 4.55

Buffalo / Montreal [A] Under 5.5 -130       5 to win 3.85

Chicago [A] / Phoenix Under 5.5 -118      5 to win 4.25

Rangers [B] / Vancouver Under 5.5 -147   10 to win 6.80

St. Louis / LA [A]             Under 5.5 -143  5 to win 3.50

robwalton PM robwalton
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Posted: 10/19/2011 7:51:43 AM
System is 29-0                 +97.95

Teams we are chasing

Colorado [A], NJ [A] [A], Philly [B], TB [B], Detroit [A], Minny [B], Chicago [B], Toronto [A]

Games tonight

Winnipeg / Toronto [A] -110 5 to win 4.55

Luckydan PM Luckydan
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Posted: 10/19/2011 9:41:39 AM
Well done last night. Thanks for posting.

Good Luck.
robwalton PM robwalton
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Posted: 10/19/2011 9:45:56 AM
winnipeg and toronto are under 5.5, forgot to put that
jontt95 PM jontt95
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Posted: 10/19/2011 1:52:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by robwalton:

winnipeg and toronto are under 5.5, forgot to put that


Is Winn/Tor under an [A] bet?

Thanks
robwalton PM robwalton
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Posted: 10/19/2011 2:40:38 PM
yes just check post 58 and u will see what teams we are chasing
jontt95 PM jontt95
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Posted: 10/19/2011 5:08:53 PM
Gotcha

Thank you and BOL!
k-murder PM k-murder
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Posted: 10/19/2011 9:43:19 PM
I was doing the analysis on how this strategy performed in the past few seasons - I used covers for odds, etc. This differs a little bit (but not materially) from what rob posted:

2011: 33-0
2010: 536-9 (552-8)
2009: 538-5
2008: 508-17
2007: 457-5
2006: 475-11
2005: 484-7

I think the reason for the difference is because if the bet was "Push" I ended the bet - primarily because I did a quick analysis and didn't do that extra step.
k-murder PM k-murder
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Posted: 10/19/2011 9:59:49 PM
In reference to my post, it looks like 2008 was the only losing year, otherwise, the other years all performed very well. I do not know anything about hockey (I can probably name only 20 players - and most of them are retired), so I'm not sure why 2008 was a terrible year. It looks like the first two months of the year were tough months, and the rest of the year was spent trying to make it back.

robwalton PM robwalton
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Posted: 10/20/2011 12:10:14 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by k-murder:

I was doing the analysis on how this strategy performed in the past few seasons - I used covers for odds, etc. This differs a little bit (but not materially) from what rob posted:

2011: 33-0
2010: 536-9 (552-8)
2009: 538-5
2008: 508-17
2007: 457-5
2006: 475-11
2005: 484-7

I think the reason for the difference is because if the bet was "Push" I ended the bet - primarily because I did a quick analysis and didn't do that extra step.

Thanks for backtesting this.. this year its 29-0 not 33-0, i just doubled checked myself. so lets say if Toronto is playing a game and its a {B] game for them and the game ends in a push, there next game, it will be a [B] game also.. i will check out 2008 tomorrow see if i can see anything that cause that many loses

ERBATIZ PM ERBATIZ
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Posted: 10/20/2011 12:24:01 AM
lucky001 PM lucky001
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Posted: 10/20/2011 12:59:43 AM
So for tomorrow do we still chase if the under is 5 for a couple of the games?  I am looking and Minn game and Toronto is at U5. Thanks
giantONE PM giantONE
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Posted: 10/20/2011 6:30:49 AM
As far as I've understood, if the O/U is 5 as opposed to 5.5 or 6 - it's still a valid play. Rob has done a few bets with the total being 5, so there shouldn't be a filter there, not as of yet anyway.
robwalton PM robwalton
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Posted: 10/20/2011 8:49:09 AM
System is 29-0                 +92.95

Teams we are chasing

Colorado [A], NJ [A] [A], Philly [B], TB [B], Detroit [A], Minny [B], Chicago [B], Toronto [B], Winnipeg [A]

Games tonight

Toronto [B] / Boston Under 5  +113   10 to win 11.30

Washington / Philly [B] Under 5.5 -111  10 to win 9

Islanders / Tb [B]   Under 5.5  +105 10 to win 10.50

Winnipeg [A] / Ottawa Under 6 -118 5 to win 4.25

Chicago [B] / Colorado [A] Under 5.5 -106  15 to win 14.10

Minny [B] / Edmonton Under 5 +105  10 to win 10.50

robwalton PM robwalton
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Posted: 10/20/2011 8:54:29 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by lucky001:

So for tomorrow do we still chase if the under is 5 for a couple of the games?  I am looking and Minn game and Toronto is at U5. Thanks

Yeah we still chase if the total is 5. i believe were 2-0 so far on Under 5 games, but if they start to give us a hard time, maybe we can come up with a filter like giantone suggested, but as of now they are plays

robwalton PM robwalton
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Posted: 10/20/2011 8:55:33 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by TheEtrain:

good stuff Rob

thanks Etrain, i like what your doing in your thread, keep up the good work

lucky001 PM lucky001
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Posted: 10/20/2011 9:42:46 AM

Winnipeg should be a B tonight right, since they lost last night?  Thanks

BOL

robwalton PM robwalton
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Posted: 10/20/2011 9:52:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lucky001:

Winnipeg should be a B tonight right, since they lost last night?  Thanks

BOL

nope Winnipeg is a A play tonight, we werent chasing Winnipeg last night just Toronto

k-murder PM k-murder
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Posted: 10/20/2011 10:22:40 AM
You're right, you are 29-0. Wrong equation in excel. Anyways, here's the fixed results from past seasons (sorry for the error):

2011: 29-0
2010: 567-12 (552-8)
2009: 559-8
2008: 528-22
2007: 518-13
2006: 527-17
2005: 524-18
Total: 3,252-90

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