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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL Under Chase System
TheEtrain send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 10/18/2011 10:06:44 AM
good stuff Rob
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#52
Posted: 10/18/2011 3:33:46 PM
Lets do this 
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Luckydan
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#53
Posted: 10/18/2011 9:38:17 PM
Please clarify something for me. If you have a team playing their C game of the chase and a team playing their A game in the same game, what would be the total base units played on this game?


Thanks.

Good Luck.
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#54
Posted: 10/18/2011 10:48:19 PM
wow some game is playing double unit!!!
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#55
Posted: 10/19/2011 1:32:55 AM
QUOTEYou'd wager 4 units on the game...


Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Please clarify something for me. If you have a team playing their C game of the chase and a team playing their A game in the same game, what would be the total base units played on this game?


Thanks.

Good Luck.
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#56
Posted: 10/19/2011 1:34:17 AM
^^^^ Correction, you'd wager 5 units on the game...
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glefkb01
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#57
Posted: 10/19/2011 6:24:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by robwalton:

System is 23-0                 +79.25

Teams we are chasing

Rangers [B], Colorado [A], Columbus [B], NJ [A] [A], Montreal [A], LA [A], Philly [A], TB [B], Florida [B], Detroit [A], Minny [A], Boston [A], Chicago [A], Toronto [A]

Games tonight

Dallas / Columbus [B] Under 5.5  -135 10 to win 7.40

Florida [B] / Washington Under 5.5 -120 10 to win 8.30

Carolina / Boston [A] Under 5.5 -130       5 to win 3.85

Pittsburgh / Minny [A] Under 5.5 -143      5 to win 3.50

Philly [A] / Ottawa Under 5.5 -110           5 to win 4.55

Buffalo / Montreal [A] Under 5.5 -130       5 to win 3.85

Chicago [A] / Phoenix Under 5.5 -118      5 to win 4.25

Rangers [B] / Vancouver Under 5.5 -147   10 to win 6.80

St. Louis / LA [A]             Under 5.5 -143  5 to win 3.50
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robwalton
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#58
Posted: 10/19/2011 7:51:43 AM
System is 29-0                 +97.95

Teams we are chasing

Colorado [A], NJ [A] [A], Philly [B], TB [B], Detroit [A], Minny [B], Chicago [B], Toronto [A]

Games tonight

Winnipeg / Toronto [A] -110 5 to win 4.55
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Luckydan
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#59
Posted: 10/19/2011 9:41:39 AM
Well done last night. Thanks for posting.

Good Luck.
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robwalton
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#60
Posted: 10/19/2011 9:45:56 AM
winnipeg and toronto are under 5.5, forgot to put that
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#61
Posted: 10/19/2011 1:52:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by robwalton:

winnipeg and toronto are under 5.5, forgot to put that


Is Winn/Tor under an [A] bet?

Thanks
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#62
Posted: 10/19/2011 2:40:38 PM
yes just check post 58 and u will see what teams we are chasing
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#63
Posted: 10/19/2011 5:08:53 PM
Gotcha

Thank you and BOL!
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#64
Posted: 10/19/2011 9:43:19 PM
I was doing the analysis on how this strategy performed in the past few seasons - I used covers for odds, etc. This differs a little bit (but not materially) from what rob posted:

2011: 33-0
2010: 536-9 (552-8)
2009: 538-5
2008: 508-17
2007: 457-5
2006: 475-11
2005: 484-7

I think the reason for the difference is because if the bet was "Push" I ended the bet - primarily because I did a quick analysis and didn't do that extra step.
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#65
Posted: 10/19/2011 9:59:49 PM
In reference to my post, it looks like 2008 was the only losing year, otherwise, the other years all performed very well. I do not know anything about hockey (I can probably name only 20 players - and most of them are retired), so I'm not sure why 2008 was a terrible year. It looks like the first two months of the year were tough months, and the rest of the year was spent trying to make it back.
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#66
Posted: 10/20/2011 12:10:14 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by k-murder:

I was doing the analysis on how this strategy performed in the past few seasons - I used covers for odds, etc. This differs a little bit (but not materially) from what rob posted:

2011: 33-0
2010: 536-9 (552-8)
2009: 538-5
2008: 508-17
2007: 457-5
2006: 475-11
2005: 484-7

I think the reason for the difference is because if the bet was "Push" I ended the bet - primarily because I did a quick analysis and didn't do that extra step.

Thanks for backtesting this.. this year its 29-0 not 33-0, i just doubled checked myself. so lets say if Toronto is playing a game and its a {B] game for them and the game ends in a push, there next game, it will be a [B] game also.. i will check out 2008 tomorrow see if i can see anything that cause that many loses
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#67
Posted: 10/20/2011 12:24:01 AM
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#68
Posted: 10/20/2011 12:59:43 AM
So for tomorrow do we still chase if the under is 5 for a couple of the games?  I am looking and Minn game and Toronto is at U5. Thanks
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#69
Posted: 10/20/2011 6:30:49 AM
As far as I've understood, if the O/U is 5 as opposed to 5.5 or 6 - it's still a valid play. Rob has done a few bets with the total being 5, so there shouldn't be a filter there, not as of yet anyway.
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robwalton
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#70
Posted: 10/20/2011 8:49:09 AM
System is 29-0                 +92.95

Teams we are chasing

Colorado [A], NJ [A] [A], Philly [B], TB [B], Detroit [A], Minny [B], Chicago [B], Toronto [B], Winnipeg [A]

Games tonight

Toronto [B] / Boston Under 5  +113   10 to win 11.30

Washington / Philly [B] Under 5.5 -111  10 to win 9

Islanders / Tb [B]   Under 5.5  +105 10 to win 10.50

Winnipeg [A] / Ottawa Under 6 -118 5 to win 4.25

Chicago [B] / Colorado [A] Under 5.5 -106  15 to win 14.10

Minny [B] / Edmonton Under 5 +105  10 to win 10.50
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robwalton
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#71
Posted: 10/20/2011 8:54:29 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by lucky001:

So for tomorrow do we still chase if the under is 5 for a couple of the games?  I am looking and Minn game and Toronto is at U5. Thanks

Yeah we still chase if the total is 5. i believe were 2-0 so far on Under 5 games, but if they start to give us a hard time, maybe we can come up with a filter like giantone suggested, but as of now they are plays
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robwalton
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#72
Posted: 10/20/2011 8:55:33 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by TheEtrain:

good stuff Rob

thanks Etrain, i like what your doing in your thread, keep up the good work
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#73
Posted: 10/20/2011 9:42:46 AM

Winnipeg should be a B tonight right, since they lost last night?  Thanks

BOL
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robwalton
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#74
Posted: 10/20/2011 9:52:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lucky001:

Winnipeg should be a B tonight right, since they lost last night?  Thanks

BOL

nope Winnipeg is a A play tonight, we werent chasing Winnipeg last night just Toronto
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#75
Posted: 10/20/2011 10:22:40 AM
You're right, you are 29-0. Wrong equation in excel. Anyways, here's the fixed results from past seasons (sorry for the error):

2011: 29-0
2010: 567-12 (552-8)
2009: 559-8
2008: 528-22
2007: 518-13
2006: 527-17
2005: 524-18
Total: 3,252-90
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