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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Top Dog - NHL System
GreenMachine22 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#301
Posted: 10/28/2013 10:47:27 AM
GM6 (Sunday) EDM +228 LOSS
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jenjay23
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#302
Posted: 10/28/2013 4:45:34 PM

Hey GreenMachine and others.

I built an automated spreadsheet to track this system from the begining of the season.  Due to my lack of time during the day, I make my investments on the opening lines, or at least the early morning lines with minimal movement.  As you can see there is  a few games that are different from your record which luckily broke some of the longer losing streaks.  Playing it this way actually shows a profit of +4.63 units after last night.

For all the spreadsheet can be downloaded at:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjQmNxTklPTkZTV3c/edit?usp=sharing

It's by no means perfect and as you will be able to tell it is built off the great tool that Degen provided for the MLB RPI Chase by B2W, so huge props to him for development of a great tool that allowed us all to build off of.  There is still some bugs I am trying to fix, but somewhat struggling for time and excel knowledge.  Each day you can hit "update" and stats and history is downloaded.  Odds are downloaded from vegas insider and I use pinnacle so those are the odds that are displayed.  There is a bug and if the odds do not display properly on the summary tab beside the game, go to the odds tab and copy the formula in column N row 3 down to the bottom of the displayed teams.  I find I have to do this every second day or so.  As you can see, I have Wash as the dog for tonight in the Dog tracking sheet not Carolina as it crosses another system I play where Pitt starts a 4 game chase and is the pick tonight.  You can add the dog bets to bet tracker and change any odds and track you w/l's as the season goes on.

This can also help in creating filters going forward; maybe top dog that has win % greater than 0.400 ? or top dog that has an RPI within 100 of opponent? etc etc. lots of data that you can chose from.  All the brainiacs with the ability to back test may be able to help.

hope this can help.......GL 2 all

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#303
Posted: 10/29/2013 12:18:38 AM
GM 7  CAR +161
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#304
Posted: 10/29/2013 12:19:23 AM
Thanks JenJay23...I will look your spreadsheet over tomorrow.
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#305
Posted: 10/30/2013 12:52:26 PM
GM8 WIN +201
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#306
Posted: 10/30/2013 1:23:17 PM
GM9 looks like it'll be on my home town boys...DET +131.  I will comfirm later...
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#307
Posted: 10/30/2013 1:27:03 PM
currently on a 4 game slide...I like the Bad Boy's chances tonight.
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#308
Posted: 10/31/2013 1:49:21 AM
GM9 DET +136


The Red Wings clear this series...on to the next!  This year has been the worst Top Dog year I can remember.  One 11 game losing streak followed by a 9 gamer...ouch!  I will keep tracking this system here and there but it's not predictable, at least not this year.

If anyone has time to research bottom dog...that might be worth a shot.
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#309
Posted: 11/1/2013 11:36:16 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:

GM9 DET +136


The Red Wings clear this series...on to the next!  This year has been the worst Top Dog year I can remember.  One 11 game losing streak followed by a 9 gamer...ouch!  I will keep tracking this system here and there but it's not predictable, at least not this year.

If anyone has time to research bottom dog...that might be worth a shot.

I think you might be better off playing the top fave on a labby line. From my records, top fave in 2011-2012 was 112-56 with two 4 game losing streaks as the longest. Last season, 65-29 when I stopped on 4/21 (again two 4 game losing streaks). This year, you have already seen how well the top fave is doing. Keep units low for the 4 game strak that will happen and you'll be fine.

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#310
Posted: 11/5/2013 12:39:06 PM
Tracking only...

GM1 (10/31) BUF +170 - LOSS
GM2 (11/1) CLB +166 - LOSS
GM3 (11/2) CAR +167 - LOSS
GM4 (11/3) CAL +223 - WINS & clears series on 4th game.

New Series_______________
GM1 (11/4) WIN +134 - WINS & clears series on 1st game.


New Series_______________
GM1 (11/5) BUF +356


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#311
Posted: 11/5/2013 12:50:33 PM

That SJ/Buffalo juice is crazy.

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#312
Posted: 11/5/2013 7:02:44 PM
Funny thing is BUF has beaten SJ in their past 4 meetings
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#313
Posted: 11/5/2013 8:28:56 PM
I added one filter to this system, taking the top dog with a win%(OT incl) greater than 0.420.  This eliminates the bottom ~10 teams or so from qualifying each night.  If OK with you green machine I may chime in every week or so just to compare results and hopefully profitability of the 2 methods.  With this filter Calgary would be top dog tonight at +182
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#314
Posted: 11/6/2013 1:56:19 AM
BUF closed at +355 and cleared the chase on GM1.  WOW



Anyone who has anything different they'd like to try to improve this system, please do!  In order to not clutter up the thread with too many variations, just post weekly results until we get this thing on track.  In the mean time, I will continue tracking as much as I can with the basic version.

JENJAY - just a point of clarification: the system was set up to be used with COVERS CLOSING lines...not lines from your bookie.  If you use lines from your bookie, make sure you post that info as it will be relevant to your particular set of results.


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#315
Posted: 11/6/2013 1:59:17 AM
Also - JenJay...I have wondered how this would work if we used only the top HOME DOG.  Of course this would mean a whole lot less action but it might also be something to consider checking into if you have time.


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#316
Posted: 11/7/2013 7:18:45 PM
Last night: GM1 WIN +245




Tonight: GM2 BUF +237
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#317
Posted: 11/7/2013 9:21:22 PM
I think I've discovered...G O L D.  I need to do some more back testing but so far this+last season are looking very promising.  Stay tuned for a possible panty-dropper!
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#318
Posted: 11/7/2013 9:22:38 PM
...another juicy PLUS money wagering system
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#319
Posted: 11/8/2013 11:59:41 PM
spill the beans lol
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#320
Posted: 11/10/2013 12:59:45 PM
...the more backtesting I do the worse this idea seems.  So far the TOP "HOME" DOG chase has two 10 game losing streaks in 10/11.  Otherwise, it looks like GOLD (for the past couple seasons).

Waste of my time.   
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#321
Posted: 11/11/2013 1:54:48 PM
TOP DOG SYSTEM UPDATE:
10/6 GM1 WIN +245 loss
10/7 GM2 FLA +232 loss
10/8 GM3 BUF +271 loss
10/9 GM4 TOR +182 loss
10/10 GM5 EDM +235 loss

10/11 GM6 TB +161 ...pending
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#322
Posted: 11/12/2013 6:51:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:

TOP DOG SYSTEM UPDATE:
10/6 GM1 WIN +245 loss
10/7 GM2 FLA +232 loss
10/8 GM3 BUF +271 loss
10/9 GM4 TOR +182 loss
10/10 GM5 EDM +235 loss
10/11 GM6 TB +161 ...loss

10/12 GM7 BUF +172 ...pending
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#323
Posted: 11/12/2013 10:35:36 PM
GM7: BUF +172 clears the chase


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#324
Posted: 11/12/2013 11:03:35 PM
I see now that I chose BUF before lines closed.  Closing lines indicate PHO +170 was the TOP DOG...not BUF, who ended up at +165.

Either way, PHO won & the chase closed tonight on GM 7
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#325
Posted: 11/14/2013 1:00:42 AM
10/13 GM1 EDM +104 ....lost

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