Top Dog - NHL System

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Top Dog - NHL System
TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/6/2011 6:17:51 PM
Whats up fellas...pretty simple system here
- I am going to play the biggest dog everyday of all the games
- Day 1 will be a 1 unit play (to risk) - I only use $5 for units
- If i lose day 1, then day 2 will be 2 units, lose day 2, then 3 will be 3 units.
-If I win a day, the next day will start back at 1 unit to risk

If we can win pretty much 1 out 4-5 games all year and avoid a 10 game losing streak, and win that occasional +240 juice game we will be successful come May.

2010-11 was +75 units
2009-10 was +7 units (had that damn 10 game L streak
2008-09 was +72 units
2007-08 was + 83 units

This system won't be for everyone as it is hard to stick to..at some point we WILL be on 6 game losing streak or so and game 7 will be betting on a terrible team (+250ish)...thats why I wouldn't play to high of units

Have a good season guys (and gals)

SEASON 0-0
10/6 PLAY

PITTSBURGH +135
ERBATIZ PM ERBATIZ
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Posted: 10/6/2011 11:03:16 PM
TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/7/2011 1:00:17 AM
good start, I thought PIT was gonna blow that one...

Looks like its gonna be Ottawa tomorrow...right now my book has them at +190, I am gonna wait until before gametime to lock it in..hopefully it gets to +200...until then
TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/7/2011 4:54:41 PM
Season 1-0
+1.35u

10/7 Play

OTT +180 Risk 1 unit
Air1 PM Air1
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Posted: 10/7/2011 9:25:08 PM
this is only a three game chase right?
Also about the 10-game losing streak in 09-10. can you forward me a spreadsheet or something. maybe we can improve the system with a filter or two?
TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/8/2011 1:13:40 AM
it is not a true chase, i just add a unit for every day i lose...in the past 4 seasons the longest losing streak is 10 games...

this honestly isn't really a "system" more of a money management strategy...i am counting on the big underdogs to come thru every 3-4 days
TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/8/2011 11:20:19 AM
@air1 the losing streak was from Jan 12-21, 2010...there isn't much data on my spreadsheet that would be helpful to you, you just as easily can check the past scoreboards on this site..

I will check and see the past results if I stopped after 3 losing days in a row...
PatrickBateman PM PatrickBateman
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Posted: 10/8/2011 3:19:56 PM

TheEtrain,

Like the idea, especially not making it a chase system. Just an idea here, but have you ever tried filtering out teams on big losing streak? Say over 5 or so? That way you are not playing on teams that are just absolutely desolate. You will still get some big dogs even doing this though.

BOL

TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/8/2011 4:14:11 PM
@PatrickBateman

That may be a good call..I have 0 filters for this, currently just playing the top dog per day, that was part of the reason for posting this thread...to get more ideas from you guys to improve this simple, yet profitable system...It may be a good idea to not play a team on a terrible run like you said...i will try and backtest last years data to see if this would have helped.. Thanks man
TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/8/2011 4:18:56 PM
Season 1-1
+.35 units

10/8 PLAY

PHOENIX +170 2 UNIITS

in essence, if we win tonite, it will profit us 2.4 units - today's win - yesterdays loss...see you all tomorrow
TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/9/2011 10:28:21 AM
Season 1-2
-1.65 Units

10/9 PLAY

EDMONTON +125 3 UNITS

I realized not everyday I can get the highest possible underdog, because of late line changes, etc...for instance, yesterday Phoenix finished at +156 and Carolina finished at +186, but when i was able to make the bet, PHO was +170 and CAR was +160...I will try and wait as long as possible in the day to make the plays, but that's not always possible..fyi +125 might be the lowest dog all year in this thread....later all
PatrickBateman PM PatrickBateman
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Posted: 10/9/2011 12:23:18 PM

Theetrain,

I found a similar idea like this on another forum. The person was playing the top two dogs each day when there was over 4 games on the board. It would have really good months and then really bad ones. It was profitable most years. But in following the system, I did notice that when you are playing a team that has lost 10 straight those are best to avoid. THat is why i suggested it. How about tracking each way in this thread to get a side by side comparison?

TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/9/2011 11:58:07 PM
10/9
Edmonton +125  3 Units 

10/10 PLAY

COLORADO +210 1 UNIT

SEASON 2-2
+2.10 Units
TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/10/2011 6:40:44 PM
10/10 PLAY

COLORADO +210  1 UNIT ----WINNER

SEASON 3-2
+4.20 units
bigdog56 PM bigdog56
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Posted: 10/10/2011 8:19:37 PM
Love the idea of the system.  Any way you can pull results for 1 or 2 years further back?

If you have access to a database, what about looking at what results would be for playing the +1.5 PL for the big favorite each day?  I'm guessing would drastically reduce the runs of several losses in a row.

Appreciate it and good luck!
Dutch1976 PM Dutch1976
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Posted: 10/10/2011 9:52:24 PM

Ever thought about doing the smallest dog? It'd still be + money bet, and would likely win more often.

bigdog56 PM bigdog56
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Posted: 10/10/2011 10:16:44 PM
I meant +1.5 PL for the biggest dog each day, not favorite.
TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/10/2011 10:36:45 PM
@ dutch , yeah i did think of using the smallest dogs per day, but after a few losing days in a row, it doesn't bounce back as easy...here is an example...

the beauty of betting in the NHL is the randomness of the sport...pucks off skates, ricochets, etc..you will find many dogs win per day...but lets say we lose 5 days in a row...that equals a total of -15 units lost in that span..then on day 6 (a 6 unit bet) we win a game where the dog is +200...the total winnings for day 6 is +12 units...so far that 6 day span we are -3 units....if we would be playing the smallest dog, chances are the play would have been +105 or something....therefor only recouping half of the amount of units back on the winning day...over the course of 200 days..this adds up...

so, in short, my opinion is that using the smallest dogs, would probably lose less...yes, but wouldn't win enough back....using the highest dogs per day allows us to have a much lower winning %...

PS, for this system, I would recommend only using $5 (thats me) or $10 units at most...as losing streaks WILL happen.

All in all if we can avoid that 9-10 game losing streak, and hit about 20 +200 games at the right times...we will have a fine year...
TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/10/2011 10:44:32 PM
@bigdog .... actually your initial idea of using the highest favorite on the -1.5 PL would work better than the highest dog on the +1.5 PL in my opinion...but I have no research to back that up....

Usually the favs -1.5 PL is at least +175ish i would think ( i could be wrong, i have no database that shows this, and never really look at it)

The dog +1.5 PL is usually very juicy and wouldn't work using this model I don't think...

Hope you find this thread helpful! 
TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/11/2011 12:42:22 PM
10/11 PLAY

FLORIDA +145 (1 UNIT)

SEASON 3-2
+4.20 units
TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/11/2011 10:19:12 PM
10/11 Recap
Florida +145 (1 U) 

Season 3-3
+3.20 Units
TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/11/2011 10:54:59 PM
10/12 PLAY

Colorado +130 (2 Units)

Season 3-3
+3.20 Units
stats1 PM stats1
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Posted: 10/11/2011 11:15:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheEtrain:

10/11 PLAY

FLORIDA +145 (1 UNIT)

SEASON 3-2
+4.20 units
       thought u only played when there were 4 games or more a day!!!!!
TheEtrain PM TheEtrain
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Posted: 10/12/2011 1:08:55 PM
@stats

Nope, everyday..I think someone else mentioned that somewhere
Jolive PM Jolive
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Posted: 10/12/2011 4:04:37 PM
Do you bet on regulation time or OT included?
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