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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Post All-Star Home System
CKP22
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#176
Posted: 7/12/2013 11:59:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:

One thing that bothers me about this system. What happens once a team clinches a solid playoff spot? Do we stop betting on that team? Pitchers take extra rest, veterans take more days off rookies get more playing time...


The record is what it is, but it's really your call. Remember a few years back the Red Sox ran out a minor league lineup for 4 straight games so I just decided not to play them.
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CKP22
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#177
Posted: 7/13/2013 12:00:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:

One thing that bothers me about this system. What happens once a team clinches a solid playoff spot? Do we stop betting on that team? Pitchers take extra rest, veterans take more days off rookies get more playing time...


A few years back, Red Sox ran out a minor league lineup for 4 straight games.  I just refused to play them in that instance even though they cleared.
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#178
Posted: 7/14/2013 2:51:39 AM

Looks like we have our first 3 plays, starting Friday:

BOS

TEX

STL

These will be the only plays for next weekend, regardless of what happens Sunday.

 

The teams that have officially made it are: BOS, TB, OAK, TEX, ATL, PIT, and STL.

Pending teams are: BAL, DET, and CIN.  Whichever one of these teams win on Sunday, they're in.

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#179
Posted: 7/14/2013 7:55:39 AM
When will this start?
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#180
Posted: 7/14/2013 10:25:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:

When will this start?

My hunch is that the Post All-Star Home System will start post All-Star game.  
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#181
Posted: 7/14/2013 12:26:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:

When will this start?
See post #178, directly above yours!! lol
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#182
Posted: 7/14/2013 5:29:51 PM
Late All Star break means fewer series, although there are more eligible teams than we've seen last couple years...
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NoSoLucky
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#183
Posted: 7/14/2013 7:23:05 PM
BAL, DET, CIN, BOS, TB, OAK, TEX, ATL, PIT, STL

I take it we only chase these teams when they start a 6 game homestand for 3 games. My first time using this sys.
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#184
Posted: 7/14/2013 7:41:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:

BAL, DET, CIN, BOS, TB, OAK, TEX, ATL, PIT, STL

I take it we only chase these teams when they start a 6 game homestand for 3 games. My first time using this sys.

The system is a 6 game chase, but it rarely goes past 3 games.
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#185
Posted: 7/14/2013 9:10:45 PM
I count 48 series that qualify.
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CKP22
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#186
Posted: 7/14/2013 11:33:40 PM
A total of 10 teams with 37 series this year.  See below the teams and start dates for each of their series.

Orioles (3) -- July 26, August 16, September 24

Red Sox (4) -- July 19, July 30, August 27, September 13

Tigers (4) -- July 26, August 15, August 26, September 13

Athletics (4) -- July 26, August 13, August 30, September 16

Rays (2) -- July 26, August 9

Rangers (4) -- July 19, August 13, September 9, September 23

Braves (4) -- July 26, August 9, August 27, September 23

Reds (4) -- August 2, August 19, September 2, September 23

Pirates (3) -- July 29, August 27, September 12

Cardinals (5) -- July 19, August 5, August 22, September 6, September 23




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#187
Posted: 7/14/2013 11:54:24 PM

CPK - Not sure where I got 48, but in any case I think you missed one.

Balt has 8 game homestand starting on Sept 5

 

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CKP22
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#188
Posted: 7/15/2013 12:12:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

CPK - Not sure where I got 48, but in any case I think you missed one.

Balt has 8 game homestand starting on Sept 5

 



That is indeed correct for the Orioles starting on September 5. Nice catch. We go to 38 total series.
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#189
Posted: 7/15/2013 1:30:30 AM
That's amazing that TB has only 2 qualifying series' the entire second half.
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#190
Posted: 7/15/2013 3:10:30 AM
CPK22 - Great to see you back 

Betting past 3 games would be risking too much.

You know off-hand how chasing 3 games has done?
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#191
Posted: 7/15/2013 3:22:01 AM
Sorry.  I went back and read a few posts and its 438-13 or something like that.  I'm guessing that's profitable?
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CKP22
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#192
Posted: 7/15/2013 9:51:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95:

That's amazing that TB has only 2 qualifying series' the entire second half.


While it doesn't qualify, they do have a 5-game home series that probably could be played.
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#193
Posted: 7/15/2013 12:10:49 PM
This is a great system.  My only concern is that with so many teams--good teams, too--some of these series may be pretty tough, particularly when teams like Boston and TBay host each other.  I may just take the 5 teams with the best home record (if there is one team I'm nervous about right now, it's Texas).  Pitt and St. L. are another pair.  Both teams have shown they can win on the road.  Either way, I still expect it to be profitable. Just wanna try to limit my risk. 
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CKP22
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#194
Posted: 7/15/2013 3:47:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by iamnomad:

This is a great system.  My only concern is that with so many teams--good teams, too--some of these series may be pretty tough, particularly when teams like Boston and TBay host each other.  I may just take the 5 teams with the best home record (if there is one team I'm nervous about right now, it's Texas).  Pitt and St. L. are another pair.  Both teams have shown they can win on the road.  Either way, I still expect it to be profitable. Just wanna try to limit my risk. 


Wouldn't be too concerned. The numbers speak for themselves.
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CKP22
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#195
Posted: 7/15/2013 3:49:56 PM
I will say this:  I tracked this as a six-game chase dating to 1999. Would love to go back even further to see when it lost.

With that, I do usually cut my chase after 4 games.  I may play a 5th game but unlikely.   In the past, I had no trouble sticking through to a 5th game with any system.  However, I now cut things quicker. Probably the reason why my betting career has become a complete train wreck.
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#196
Posted: 7/16/2013 4:02:55 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by iamnomad:

This is a great system.  My only concern is that with so many teams--good teams, too--some of these series may be pretty tough, particularly when teams like Boston and TBay host each other.  I may just take the 5 teams with the best home record (if there is one team I'm nervous about right now, it's Texas).  Pitt and St. L. are another pair.  Both teams have shown they can win on the road.  Either way, I still expect it to be profitable. Just wanna try to limit my risk. 

One thing you could do is wait out some series.  Like, for instance, this coming weekend there are 3 series.  Pick the 2 you're most confident in getting an A game win, and don't bet the first game of the other series.  Chances are, you'll get at least one, if not both wins from the series you bet and could now jump on the series you did not bet, if that first game happened to lose.

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#197
Posted: 7/16/2013 6:15:04 AM
how does tampa qualify on july 26 ? they are @ yankees . also on aug.9 tampa is @ la dodgers ? am i missing something ?
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#198
Posted: 7/16/2013 6:38:52 AM
I got 39 total series. Mistakes I noticed are in bold. 

It should read the following :


Orioles (4) -- July 26, August 16, September 5, 
September 24

Red Sox (4) -- July 19, July 30, August 27, September 13

Tigers (4) -- July 26, August 15, August 26, September 13

Athletics (4) -- July 25, August 13, August 30, September 16

Rays (3) -- August 13, August 23, September 16

Rangers (4) -- July 19, August 13, September 9, September 23

Braves (4) -- July 26, August 9, August 27, September 23

Reds (4) -- August 2, August 19, September 2, September 23

Pirates (3) -- July 29, August 27, September 12

Cardinals (5) -- July 19, August 5, August 22, September 6, September 23



GL everyone
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CKP22
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#199
Posted: 7/16/2013 9:06:19 AM
Geez, no idea why I had the Rays down.  It's clear on my spreadsheet that there is no July 26th series.

Rays should be Aug. 13 and Sept 16.   Aug. 23 doesn't qualify since they leave to play a makeup game on the 27th in KC.

Yes, the A's do start July 25th instead of the 26th.  Nice catch there.
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Posted: 7/18/2013 10:54:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scotty84:

I got 39 total series. Mistakes I noticed are in bold. 

It should read the following :


Orioles (4) -- July 26, August 16, September 5, 
September 24

Red Sox (4) -- July 19, July 30, August 27, September 13

Tigers (4) -- July 26, August 15, August 26, September 13

Athletics (4) -- July 25, August 13, August 30, September 16

Rays (3) -- August 13, August 23, September 16

Rangers (4) -- July 19, August 13, September 9, September 23

Braves (4) -- July 26, August 9, August 27, September 23

Reds (4) -- August 2, August 19, September 2, September 23

Pirates (3) -- July 29, August 27, September 12

Cardinals (5) -- July 19, August 5, August 22, September 6, September 23



GL everyone

New to this chase and want to make sure I do it correctly.

With the dates above start a 3 or 4 (depending on series number) game chase with that team? How do you guys do chase bets (EX-A BET-$50, B-bet -$100,etc?)

Thanks for all the help!!

CG

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