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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Kreatture's Playbook 2011
odieo send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1426
Posted: 4/22/2011 7:00:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kreatture:

MLB

4* Tampa Bay -1 (+117)
2* Tampa Bay/Toronto Over 9 (-105)
4* Milwaukee -1.5 (+110)
2* Cincinnati/St. Louis Under 8 (+105)
3* Philadelphia/San Diego Under 6.5 (-119)
2* Oakland/Seattle Under 7 (-113)


NHL

2* Buffalo/Philadelphia Over 5.5 (+129)
2* Nashville/Anaheim Under 5 (+134)


NBA

5* Orlando Magic -2 (+107)


GL Kreatture - Big Card = Big Potential you're certainly due for one!

Get it done.
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#1427
Posted: 4/23/2011 2:36:21 AM
Good   job with bases again!  Happy Easter!!!!!!
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#1428
Posted: 4/23/2011 6:49:12 AM
No comments on hockey for a bit, so here we go.

The scores in this Habs/Bruins series I never would have imagined.  9 goals against Price and Thomas?  Wow.  Habs D looks like crap, I dunno if they can pull this off anymore,  I think their window of opportunity has closed.

Philly once more in a goaltending jam.  Boucher looked freakin awful last night.  Leighton not too bad.  I never understood why someone didn't pick him up off waivers, if only to shoot Philly in the foot.

Nashville on the brink of winning a series.  From what I saw, Emery is not to blame for Anaheim's loss.  The center has to pick up Smithson moving in to the net.  But what about Ryan's goal?  Best I've seen these playoffs.

Vancouver and the Hawks curse.  Makes me think of Ottawa and their inability to get past the Leafs some years back.  It's like a huge weight on their shoulders that they can't seem to shake.  Luongo has to prove his worth now.  Win Game Six, they might go deep.

Detroit looks awesome.  They'll be well rested for the next series, I think they can go very deep if they continue to play like this. 

Kreatture, I'm pulling for LA, if only for you.  They can't seem to close out games though.  They can still keep this team intact for a couple of year, so I have no doubt they'll be back.  Still, it would be nice to win a round this year.
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#1429
Posted: 4/23/2011 11:06:04 AM

Another great night picking up about +5 Units despite losing the big banger on Orlando.. had a shot at the end but, in hindsight, no excuses it was just a bad pick and should not have been worth 5*. I got beat bad on that one.

Mick - Montreal really blew their chance last game and you have to believe advantage is definitely back in Boston's favor now, but we'll see if Boston if mentally prepared for tonight.. if Montreal can come out hard once again and get an early goal, you never know! Both goaltenders have certainly let in their fair share of "softies" so far.. someone's gotta step up and steal this series cuz I still think it's completely up for grabs!

Philly's #3 choice in goal should have been their #1.. they probably wouldn't be in this mess now. Going to be very tough for Philly to win 2 straight now when you know Ryan Miller is very capable of shutting the door for 60 minutes.. they do have some pretty recent experience of coming back tho..

That Anaheim loss really stings.. 28 seconds away from having THEIR foot on the throat, to having their own throat pinned down. Ryan's goal was great, maybe the best of the season, but idiots nowadays comparing it to Mario's greatest goal.. please. I gave emery a pass the past couple games, but not anymore.. last night's loss was completely his fault! He's got the skill, the raw talent, but he has yet to make a big save when his team needed him too. You can say the defense hung him out to dry or whatever, but how many goals has he now given up these past 2 games..?? He has to make the big save when they need him, and he hasn't.

Vancouver/Chicago Game 6 will be very good.. Canucks at a Dog price?? Hmmm..

I don't put much stock in the Wings sweep.. they were playing Phoenix. Outside of just the normal distractions of knowing these are your last few games in your city and then you'll have to pack up your family and move, to the fact the Coyotes just don't match up well with Detroit and can't ever seem to beat them. I won't be picking them in the next round.

It's been a frustrating series in LA.. up 4-0 at home in Game 3, should have been up 2-1 then with a chance to go up 3-1 at home.. they had a great shot. I'll be cheering hard tonight, but won't be surprised if they lose by a few goals. It's tough to bounce back mentally after blowing a lead like that. We really miss Kopitar :(

.. back in a bit with any afternoon plays   

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#1430
Posted: 4/23/2011 11:37:54 AM
MLB 2011 (-6.28)

NHL 2011 PLAYOFFS (+6.23)

NBA 2011 PLAYOFFS (+14.81)

OVERALL (+14.76)

PLAYBOOK
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#1431
Posted: 4/23/2011 2:17:38 PM

MLB

2*  Chi.Sox  (-113) 
2*  Atlanta  (+148)
5*  NY Yankees -1.5  (-103)
2*  Texas -1.5  (-102)

NHL

3*  NY Rangers/Washington Under 5  (-113)
2*  Montreal/Boston Under 5  (-102)

NBA

3* Chicago -4.5  (-103)
3* San Antonio +2  (-105)
2* San Antonio/Memphis Under 190  (-106)

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#1432
Posted: 4/23/2011 3:10:29 PM
Tampa 8-2 over Pitt?  This has not been the year of the goalie so far thiese playoffs.  Not one goalie in any of the series has played consistently great.

True on Philly.  Last year, down 3-0 in games, 3-0 in the 3rd period of Game 4, they return to win the series and almost take the Cup.

It's tough to trust the Unders, but you have to believe that somewhere, there will be a goaltenders duel.
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#1433
Posted: 4/23/2011 3:44:17 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by mickjam:



It's tough to trust the Unders, but you have to believe that somewhere, there will be a goaltenders duel.

Standard plays here.. Rangers/Capitals had their Over, now they should return to solid defense/great goaltending. Lundqvist in an elimination game should be very good and the Capitals commitment to defense should allow an escape to the Push at the very worst.

Montreal on the road, standard play most of the season.. gotta go with the probabilities here. Hopfully they both hit now/tonight!

Yeah.. wow on TB! If they win Game 6 at home will we see Crosby in Game 7?? Series just got interesting..

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#1434
Posted: 4/23/2011 9:54:31 PM
Unders were solid plays.  Good call on your part.  It's been tough to get a read on the Habs/Bruins game.  Defensive for a bit, then flat out wide open for a while.  Back and forth.  Heading to OT now, fingers crossed.

I realized again why I dislike Tortorella so much.  Down 3-0, 45 seconds left, you still keep your goalie on the bench, and then put out your bruisers.  What message are you sending?  Let Washington have their win, be a man.  Whatta tool that guy is.
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#1435
Posted: 4/24/2011 2:07:45 AM
Couldn't agree more Mick.. Torts is a snobbish guy and I couldn't be more happier to see Washington beat their behind out!

Helluva game in Boston.. I disagree about having a read on the series.. I think the Totals have been fairly standard - Bet the Under in Boston and back off in Montreal.. I know I bet one Under in Montreal and it was more of a play alongside with the Habs ML that night.. tryin to limit the damage if my Boston Series Pick did not win. I'm sure you've noticed I have not played Montreal since Boston got a game, feeling as tho they could definitely win 4 straight for me. NHL Playoffs have been a plus for me so far, so this sets up a nice hedge in Game 6.. I could bet Montreal and if they lose, I win my Boston -1.5 Games Series Bet for +4 Units, and if they win,  can limit the loss for that -4 Units.. I'll decide when the game is upon us..

My Kings won.. I can't fuckin believe it!!! They came out so strong and crushed them.. Quick was AMAZING!! I can't help but wish Kopitar was available to us like Crosby is to Pittsburgh goin into a Game 6.. If you break down every game, every period, of this series.. you HAVE to give LA the edge.. we're goin Home, we have a shot.. this team has so much Heart, I'm so proud no matter what happens.. they WILL. NOT. DIE.

Haven't added up things from tonight yet.. but I think it was another great night?? I'm pretty sure I was -23 Units on MLB a few nights ago and now I may be slightly on the plus??? It's a long Season baby.. garbage's gonna happen. Buckle In.
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#1436
Posted: 4/24/2011 2:49:06 AM
MLB 2011 (+1.42)

NHL 2011 PLAYOFFS (+11.23)

NBA 2011 PLAYOFFS (+10.57)

OVERALL (+23.22)

PLAYBOOK


11-2 MLB run to get outta a -23 Unit hole.. it's a LONG SEASON.. I hope I don't have to keep telling you guys to not get too high on the wins, and too low on the losses. There's gonna be runs.. whether you like it or not. If you wanna make money at this you have to get rid of the "I wanna get rich in 1 month" attitude..

If you're just lookin for a heater to make rent for a month, then fine.. carry on with your Chase Systems you see in every other thread on here and hope for the best.. but if you wanna make your rent for the next year..or better yet set aside a down payment for BUYING a house, followed by making payments on it.. start paying attention about 5 pages back....
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#1437
Posted: 4/24/2011 2:58:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by odieo:

Kreatture - Nice MLB day yesterday, 3 solid picks and not even a sweat on any of them! 

Feeling a heater on the bases coming on brother - who's along for the ride?!


Good Call.. I was -15.78 Units after this night when you mentioned this.. Hope you cashed some Units!

Just remember.. One good Heater is just one bad Cooler from crashing down.. Money Management is key. If you can cap +EV then over the long run you WILL make money.. and I definitely believe I CAN cap +EV over the long haul.


Had an amazin night, gonna sleep in an enjoy the next 2 days off from my garbage job (which I am actually making more money at then before!) so don't expect any early plays tomorrow.. I'll pass along anything I like when I get the chance.

Cheers 
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#1438
Posted: 4/24/2011 2:58:51 AM
AND SO BEGINS A DRAMATIC FALL FROM GRACE
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#1439
Posted: 4/24/2011 3:15:58 AM
Thanks for comin out paul.. your encouragement is ALWAYS welcome..
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#1440
Posted: 4/24/2011 6:42:29 AM
Habs D lets them down again.  Hamrlik looking for the puck at his feet and forgetting about his man on the winner, just as Sopel was doing two nights earlier.

It can be tough to like Martin's style on a night like this.  Habs had no urgency in the OT.  A couple of decent chances, but I always felt Boston was controlling the flow.

Kudos on LA.  They did what was required, play flat out desperate hockey. 

I agree with Don Cherry that Chicago has the pressure tonight.  Last two games they could take all the chances, they had nothing to lose.  Tonight they do.  Vancouver by two goals with a perfect road win to close out the series.
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#1441
Posted: 4/24/2011 6:46:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kreatture:



I can't help but wish Kopitar was available to us like Crosby is to Pittsburgh goin into a Game 6.



This is the first I'm hearing about this.  Are you sure he's cleared to play?
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#1442
Posted: 4/24/2011 1:16:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kreatture:



Good Call.. I was -15.78 Units after this night when you mentioned this.. Hope you cashed some Units!

Just remember.. One good Heater is just one bad Cooler from crashing down.. Money Management is key. If you can cap +EV then over the long run you WILL make money.. and I definitely believe I CAN cap +EV over the long haul.


Had an amazin night, gonna sleep in an enjoy the next 2 days off from my garbage job (which I am actually making more money at then before!) so don't expect any early plays tomorrow.. I'll pass along anything I like when I get the chance.

Cheers 


Kreatture -  Been along for the ride on your heater (ty btw...lol) and am very impressed at your discipline.  I have been doing this as a hobby for a while and done fairly decent and recently have been considering taking it more seriously and trying to make some more money - would love to discuss methods, reasoning, $ management etc. in this thread as I feel it could be a win - win for everyone - always good to get some fresh insight on a regular basis to keep it real.

Anyways keep the heater going and GL
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#1443
Posted: 4/24/2011 4:07:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mickjam:



This is the first I'm hearing about this.  Are you sure he's cleared to play?


I think Crosby could come back whenever he wants now.. this is just speculation on my part, but I believe it. I've said all along that we could see Crosby back whenever the team really needs him. I don't believe we'll see him in Game 6, but could we if there's a Game 7?? I don't think Pittsburgh wants him to have to come back this series, so I expect a strong effort from them next game to close it out.

Took the day off and relaxed, gorgeous weather here. Lots of NBA & NHL tonight, will take a look an post anything of interest.
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#1444
Posted: 4/24/2011 7:21:08 PM
NHL

3*  Vancouver (+110)
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#1445
Posted: 4/24/2011 7:40:01 PM
Schneider getting the nod?! What is Vigneault thinking?!
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#1446
Posted: 4/24/2011 7:43:51 PM
It's a great move.
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#1447
Posted: 4/24/2011 8:56:01 PM
Are you going to stick with Schneider the rest of the playoffs then? You can't give the reigns back to Luongo?
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#1448
Posted: 4/24/2011 9:08:13 PM
No, IF Vancouver wins u go back to Luongo to start the next Series.. Lu clearly has a huge mental block vs. this team. Schneider has been great all season and the team plays very confident in front of him.

Luongo 7-10 vs. Chicago in Playoffs.. 8-2 vs. everyone else.

2 giveaways by Schneider have resulted in 2 Hawks goals.. otherwise he's been solid. Canucks playing good, pretty happy with how game is goin. Gonna be a fun final 20!
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#1449
Posted: 4/24/2011 9:29:28 PM
Koivu with an interference call at a critical moment in the game.  I love the guy, but we dealt with this time after time in Mtl.  Kudos to Nashville.  I felt they had the makings of an upset, and they pulled it off.  Detroit or Vancouver in the next round, it don't get any easier.

Kreatture, I understand the thing about Luongo and his mental block, but I still believe you play your studs what got you to the dance.  They cannot win the cup with Schneider, they need Luongo at his peak.  I'm not sure what kind of message was delivered to him tonight.
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#1450
Posted: 4/24/2011 9:39:46 PM
Well.. didn't this just get VERY interesting..

No time for him (Luongo) to think about anything here, just get in there an shut the door.

Craaaaaaaaaaaazy!
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