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[Systems & Strategies] Topic: TIPS FOR GETTING HALF TIME 70% WINS RATIO |
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yncibrc |
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#1 Posted: 10/12/2010 8:29:25 PM
Here is the equation
if the favorite team don't cover their point spread + 6 in the first half you bet on the under dog 2nd half. If they cover both point+6 then u pick favorite.
Example from last week NFL
Cin vs Tampa 1st half Cin 10-7 2nd half 11-17
Buf vs Jack 1st half 13-13 2nd half 13-23
Orlean vs Azi 1st half 13-10 2nd half 7-20
SD vs raiders 1st half 12-10 2nd half 10-20
Greenbay vs Was 1st half 10-3 2nd half 3-13
Giant vs Hou 1st half 24-3 2nd half 10-7
I can go on and on but you get the idea. I don't have time to explain in detail but just remember this 80% of the game, the point and total only win 1 way which mean teaser 6 point will not help you win the game....
oh last but not least Jets vs Vik 1st half 9-0 2nd half 20-20 which vik win 2nd half bet (+1/2). Jets was giving 4.5 +6=10.5 and they only win by 9.....
go back as far as you want and check every game and see for yourself. Remember if favorite don't cover their point + 6 they are toast in the 2nd half.
Good luck and start winning.....
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aceantz33 |
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#2 Posted: 10/12/2010 8:55:41 PM  |
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Trav2282 |
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#3 Posted: 10/12/2010 9:02:02 PM
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schboy23 |
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#4 Posted: 10/12/2010 9:06:08 PM |
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Trav2282 |
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#5 Posted: 10/12/2010 9:34:53 PM
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Trav2282 |
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#6 Posted: 10/12/2010 10:09:34 PM
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-LB- |
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#7 Posted: 10/12/2010 10:26:31 PM TRAV2282
GB -3 so u add 6 to it making it -9 at the end of the 1H it was 10-3 GB so they are only up by 7 not covering the -9 so you take WAS 2H
BUF was -2.5 adding 6 makes it -8.5 so at half its tied 13-13. Buf did not cover -8.5 for the first half so you take JAX for the 2H
Get it bro?
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lateshow |
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#8 Posted: 10/12/2010 10:41:45 PM
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Trav2282 |
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#9 Posted: 10/12/2010 10:49:51 PM
YNC you have any other tips!?
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john19 |
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#10 Posted: 10/12/2010 10:58:55 PM |
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vanzack |
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#11 Posted: 10/12/2010 11:08:01 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by lateshow:
am i too drunk....or this theory seems legit?
Of course you are too drunk.
80%? Ok. Whatever.
The missing factor in the original post is the HT line. He blankly says to bet the dog if the fav blah blah blah - but never mentions a line.
Im not interested in proving this wrong, but I would bet anyone who wants to that results are nowhere out of expected variance range for this.
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JCtS |
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#12 Posted: 10/12/2010 11:08:09 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by lateshow:
am i too drunk....or this theory seems legit?
NO ,it's NOT - 40% ( maybe ) the most not 70% |
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john19 |
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#13 Posted: 10/12/2010 11:15:40 PM |
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LawsonJames |
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#14 Posted: 10/12/2010 11:17:27 PM
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andarmac99 |
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#15 Posted: 10/12/2010 11:24:11 PM
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LawsonJames |
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#16 Posted: 10/12/2010 11:26:33 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Just scanned about 60-70 games from last season and using educated guesses as to the HT line this has hit at a freakish rate.
I'm about to take a look myself as well 
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ridibets |
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#17 Posted: 10/12/2010 11:32:05 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:
Of course you are too drunk.
80%? Ok. Whatever.
The missing factor in the original post is the HT line. He blankly says to bet the dog if the fav blah blah blah - but never mentions a line.
Im not interested in proving this wrong, but I would bet anyone who wants to that results are nowhere out of expected variance range for this.
maybe im wrong but for the most part isnt the favorite usually a half time favorite also or at the very least a very small dog like maybe max 2pts. like i said i could be wrong but its just what i have noticed about halftime lines. i really dont bet halftime so i really havent paid real attention to the halftime lines.
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Laroja |
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#18 Posted: 10/13/2010 12:00:15 AM |
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XhuegoX |
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#19 Posted: 10/13/2010 12:16:37 AM thanks for sharing bro! i just called my boss and told him to darn off i quit!
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VegasMaxx |
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#20 Posted: 10/13/2010 12:22:08 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by XhuegoX:
thanks for sharing bro! i just called my boss and told him to darn off i quit!
we're all gonna be rich  |
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JohnnyClay |
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#21 Posted: 10/13/2010 12:22:27 AM |
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depeche2 |
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#22 Posted: 10/13/2010 12:26:35 AM
Besides, last week what about:
Atlanta (down 7-6 went on to cover)
Indy (up just 6-3 at the half covered the 2H)
SF (down at the half, but covered -3 2H)
Just off the top of my head. I want to see this back-tested against every game for at least 5 years against an accurate DB. I'd bet big $$ that it's somewhere between 45-55% win rate.
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Trav2282 |
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#23 Posted: 10/13/2010 1:05:26 AM
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JBLTK |
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#24 Posted: 10/13/2010 2:11:04 AM
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yncibrc |
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#25 Posted: 10/13/2010 7:21:18 AM
Example this coming sunday
can SF beat Raiders by 6.5+6=12.5(13) in the first half?
Sport betting is 50% if u flip a coin but if you gain some information by the 2nd half you can increase you chance to 70% and that's the edge. I never bet full game since I don't have the edge to know which way the game leaning to.
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