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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Second game of 2 game NFL Road Trip 2010
Burly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#101
Posted: 10/1/2012 12:53:22 AM

SF game was another under game, something to keep an eye on

sorry for taking over your thread was only trying to help people win some cash,

BOL

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Luckydan
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#102
Posted: 10/7/2012 8:34:30 PM
1-1 today. Looks like Buffalo and GB next week.

GL
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#103
Posted: 10/8/2012 11:15:29 AM
scratch GB as they are on a 3 game road trip. add Denver.

Denver and Buffalo are the plays for this weekend.

GL
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#104
Posted: 10/16/2012 8:49:34 PM
2-0 last week. 6-2 this year.This week: Pittsburgh.

Good Luck.
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#105
Posted: 10/17/2012 2:42:05 PM

Hey All,

So i put together a spreadsheet for the 2012 season to keep track of the plays

You can download from here

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5dydT9Oe6JbYkVFWFYzVVBqUE0

So a quick summary:

1) in purple it lists every team and their schedule from left to right

2) I also list the team record and their opponents record - stats are automatically updated from ESPN you click the update button

3) In the "week" box - you can enter the current week and it will display their current opponent and their record

4) I highlighted in yellow for each team when they are on a 2 game road-trip

** Note that some teams were on a BYE this week and the site I used to pull in the schedules doesn't display the schedule if on a BYE - so I will grab them tomorrow and update the file so all teams are populated - stay tuned.

So how do you use this?

1) Well click the update button each week to get the updated ESPN standings

2) Find the current week along the header - and look down to see if they are on a 2nd Road Game (highlighted in yellow

3) If they are then check if they covered the previous week (I left a column to enter if they did called "last week"

4) If they didn't cover then it's a play (note: I'm unsure of what other filters you may use - that's why i included record - because I saw some talk about using record, but did not see anything difinitive)

Well thats about it

Can someone tell me for sure if their are defintely filters?

I saw these - but are they definite?

Road team favs with better record or equal records over .500 are 3-1 ATS
Home team with better record or equal records under .500 are 4-2 ATS
unders in these games hit at 10-3, if the road team is the underdog they are 6-1, if the road team is the underdog and the total is 43 or less they are 3-0
 

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#106
Posted: 10/18/2012 11:08:02 PM
With some simpler filters this system still works wonders!
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#107
Posted: 10/18/2012 11:50:33 PM
What filters?
Posted using a mobile device.
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#108
Posted: 10/20/2012 2:11:59 AM

Degen those we stats from the first 13 games of last season, looking at the final thing i posted

unders in these games hit at 10-3, if the road team is the underdog they are 6-1, if the road team is the underdog and the total is 43 or less they are 3-0

for this season

WEEK 3 - Under 1-1 both totals over 43

WEEK 4 - NO UNDERDOGS ON ROAD

WEEK 5 - Under 2-0 one total 44 other total 42.5

WEEK 6 - Under 1-1 total of 44 was under total of 47.5 was over

WEEK 7 - NO UNDERDOGS ON ROAD

So if we keep the filter at total of 43 it sits at 4-0 for what has been backchecked.

and road underdog unders would be at 10-3

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#109
Posted: 10/20/2012 3:00:46 AM

checked the rest of what kirby posted as last years plays some were incorrect as they were part of three game road trips so i didnt include those

in total road underdog unders: 14-8

total under 43: 7-2, both losses came when road teams were over 7 point underdogs and the total was 38 and 38.5

tomorrow i will look through more of this thread and try to continue to backcheck further to see if another filter can be added successfully

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#110
Posted: 10/20/2012 7:36:19 PM

so if we add the filter of not playing under if road underdog is more than a 7 point underdog and the total is 43 or less: 4-0 through this year and last year, really cuts down the plays but gives us a perfect record

if we move the line to 44: 6-1

also road favs favored by 3.5 or more and record of .500 or higher: 5-1 and favored by 4 or more 4-0

any road favs record of .500 or higher: 7-2

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#111
Posted: 10/21/2012 2:10:01 AM
System is getting too complex with so many filters.
Just post the picks and we'll in at the end of the season so i hope
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Luckydan
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#112
Posted: 10/22/2012 1:30:58 PM
Pittsburgh a winner. 7-2 YTD. No plays this week.

Good Luck.
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#113
Posted: 11/5/2012 1:04:24 PM
This week: Dallas, Buffalo, KC

Good Luck.
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#114
Posted: 11/11/2012 12:54:33 AM
Still at it Dan? Nice work
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Luckydan
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#115
Posted: 11/11/2012 8:49:46 PM
2-0 today with Dallas and Buffalo. KC on Monday night.

SD and NYJ next week. Currently 9-2 YTD.

Good Luck.
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#116
Posted: 11/11/2012 9:09:00 PM

Luckydan-what do you have KC at for tomorrow? You track your plays on the closing spread?

Thanks

CG

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#117
Posted: 11/12/2012 9:33:23 PM
Closing spread.

Good Luck.
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#118
Posted: 11/12/2012 11:31:36 PM

 Chiefs!!!

Thanks for sharing and can't wait for next week!! Jets and Chargers, correct?

CG

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#119
Posted: 11/18/2012 7:54:22 PM
good win with SD
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Luckydan
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#120
Posted: 11/19/2012 10:40:45 AM
2-0 yesterday. 12-2 ytd

Baltimore might be a play this week if you had them -3.5 vs Pittsburgh. Most books closed at -3. I have always passed after a push. Also, I believe every team that played Pittsburgh did not cover the following  week. Please double check for sure.

Good Luck.
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Luckydan
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#121
Posted: 11/26/2012 2:45:43 PM
Baltimore an unlikely winner vs SD for those who lost last week vs Pittsburgh. Thanks Norv.

This week has Seattle, Minnesota and Pittsburgh. If Carolina doesn't cover tonight vs Philadelphia, they will be a play next week.

Good Luck.
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#122
Posted: 11/29/2012 10:26:24 AM
Houston?
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#123
Posted: 11/29/2012 1:12:07 PM
houston is on a 3 game road trip
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Luckydan
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#124
Posted: 12/2/2012 9:37:29 PM
3-0 today. MN was available at +9.5 thru this morning before dropping to 7, shortly before kickoff. 

This week: NO for sure, and possibly PHA, if they blow the cover tonight at Dallas.

YTD: 15-2 or 14-3, depending on your MN number.

Good Luck.
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Luckydan
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#125
Posted: 12/9/2012 9:54:17 PM
Lost on NO today. 15-3 ytd.

This week: KC and Det IF they don't cover tonight.

Good Luck.
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