NHL Opening Game Favorite 94-1 in 2009

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL Opening Game Favorite 94-1 in 2009
VegasVixen PM VegasVixen
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Posted: 9/13/2010 11:14:19 PM

Hey Rizz; (& GMSI)

Have you ever considered using a separate Labby line per team? I'm trying it with NFL this season because with so many bets on the same day/time, I feel a single or 3-line labby gets confusing, so I have in independent line per team.

For example, after week 1 Bears: 10 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 22, Houston X - 10 - 10 - 10 - 10 - X.

Any feedback/thoughts/suggestions are appreciated!

bigcountry26 PM bigcountry26
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Posted: 9/14/2010 7:34:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by therizz:

Yes this is correct.  I take half of my losses and add them to the last number in that line and drop half to the line below.

For example say we have the following lines when we start a new series with -150 odds

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

We lose 15 trying to win 10.  I will take 7.5 and add to line 1 and 2

5-5-5-12.5

5-5-5-12.5

5-5-5-5

so if i understand this correctly, u add in half of the money from a series loss to your regular unit for the next series to make your money back? Sorry for being stupid but in 6 years of betting ive never used a system like this

 

kkirby99 PM kkirby99
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Posted: 9/14/2010 9:34:07 PM

Rizz, I've been experimenting with your aggressive Labby and have formed a hybrid that helps spread out the damage from a high juice loss. What I do is take a quarter of the loser and add a new number to the line where the bet was made and then spread out the other 3/4 of the loser over all the numbers on all the lines I'm working including the just added number.

10-10-10-10         Bet 40/20 on a -200 bet  loser

10-10-10-10

Lines look like this after the loss:

13.33-13.33-13.33-13.33-13.33

13.33-13.33-13.33-13.33

Sometimes a quarter of the loss will go at the front end of the line but it really doesn't matter as long as it is one end or the other.

This doesn't clear lines as fast as the aggressive Labby but it really helps if you hit a couple of big juice losers in a row and still provides a pretty good return on your bankroll just hitting 50% of your games. In hockey I think we'll be dealing with a lot higher juice than baseball.

gentruchi PM gentruchi
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Posted: 10/8/2010 5:07:38 PM
Hello Rizz!

Are you gonna try this system to see how it works?? Because I do.

And I guess tomorrow we're gonna have our first play of the year with Washington Capitals.

For everyone trying this. BOL... .it's gonna be a my first Hockey Season and I'll be glad to have some company around. .

HotShotPicks PM HotShotPicks
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Posted: 10/8/2010 6:11:31 PM
So whats the play for tmr....I'm new 2 NHL
longstah PM longstah
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Posted: 10/8/2010 6:20:01 PM
the play for tmr is WAS -165. GL BUDDY.
gentruchi PM gentruchi
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Posted: 10/8/2010 6:25:57 PM
Well...first of all, I recommend you to read the whole thread, specially the first posts of therizz. Then you'll see it is a chase system, so you gotta be careful.

The first play for tomorrow Washington Capitals -150 ML. I'll be playing regulation line whenever the favorite is -180 or more. (It means the team must win on the regulation, it the game goes to overtime is a loss, but you risk less juice.

For those who wonder the difference between playing money line and Regulation. For tomorrow's game The Washington Capitals  are -155 favorite on the Money Line, but playing them on regulation you got them EVEN (+100).


jaybosstein PM jaybosstein
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Posted: 10/9/2010 2:09:27 AM
Anyone Got The Plays For Sat.?
therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 10/9/2010 12:00:47 PM

Hey guys,

1st play of the season for NHL would be WAS tonight

0-0-0

Series#1     7:05        nj @ WAS -155     to win 1U

 

labby lines

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

 

I don't know how well I am going to be able to stay on top of this due to some personal issues and my work schedule.  Please if you see plays post them.  Should be pretty straightforward,  The disclaimer is I only backtested this and have never actually played this for a NHL season.

 

longstah PM longstah
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Posted: 10/9/2010 12:35:38 PM
finnaly you're back Rizz, i been waitting for your thread lol. So anyway I hope you doing great lately bud.
gentruchi PM gentruchi
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Posted: 10/9/2010 4:17:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by therizz:

Hey guys,

1st play of the season for NHL would be WAS tonight

0-0-0

Series#1     7:05        nj @ WAS -155     to win 1U

 

labby lines

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

 

I don't know how well I am going to be able to stay on top of this due to some personal issues and my work schedule.  Please if you see plays post them.  Should be pretty straightforward,  The disclaimer is I only backtested this and have never actually played this for a NHL season.

 



Welcome back Rizz! Let's do this and have a great season!
HotShotPicks PM HotShotPicks
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Posted: 10/9/2010 9:21:04 PM
Rizz U are the man...First day and we win...

HotShotPicks PM HotShotPicks
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Posted: 10/9/2010 9:21:10 PM
Rizz U are the man...First day and we win...

butta01 PM butta01
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Posted: 10/9/2010 10:55:14 PM
HotShotPicks PM HotShotPicks
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Posted: 10/10/2010 6:23:40 PM
When is the next game?
therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 10/10/2010 7:58:40 PM

Series Record 1-0-0

Series#1     7:05        nj @ WAS -155     to win 1U 

Game 1 wins = 1

Game 2 wins =

Game 3 wins =

Losses =

 

labby lines

x-5-5-x

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 10/10/2010 8:01:13 PM

Plays for 10/11

Series Record 1-0-0

Series#2 (G1) 7:00        col @ PHI -150     to win 1U 

 

Game 1 wins = 1

Game 2 wins =

Game 3 wins =

Losses =

 

labby lines

x-5-5-x

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

doubledime PM doubledime
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Posted: 10/10/2010 10:08:32 PM
Thanks Rizz, you're the best at back testing. 
smitler PM smitler
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Posted: 10/10/2010 11:26:55 PM
This looks like a good system on its own merits and it also can be used to enhance the nhl home chase thread.

Jakep PM Jakep
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Posted: 10/10/2010 11:35:02 PM
If i re-ran the filters you stated i get:

2009:
Win: 69%
A: 55/78
B: 15/23
C: 6/8
(2 System losses)

2008:
Win: 62%
A: 50/80
B: 17/29
C: 9/12
(3 System losses)

2008 is NOT profitable. Its a great idea, dont get me wrong. Too many losses to be profitable chasing. I've built a program to run the results under the labouchere method and it would be profitable in 2009 but not in 2008. Odds can be high so straight betters may not be profitable.

We need a system that stands the test of time with odds that don't break the bank. Keep up the great work Rizz, i'm searching for an answer as well ;)
scotth69 PM scotth69
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Posted: 10/10/2010 11:56:10 PM

if you are winning 62% of your bets and using the agressive labby lines, i don't see how it can't work. it may very well be expensive if the odds are high, but how could the lines not clear themselves?

can you give us an example where it doesn't work?

Rizz went thru the whole MLB season using such a method and it worked. Odds were high at times and lines got fat at times, but if you have the balls and bankroll they would clear.

doubledime PM doubledime
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Posted: 10/11/2010 10:03:46 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by gentruchi:

Well...first of all, I recommend you to read the whole thread, specially the first posts of therizz. Then you'll see it is a chase system, so you gotta be careful.

The first play for tomorrow Washington Capitals -150 ML. I'll be playing regulation line whenever the favorite is -180 or more. (It means the team must win on the regulation, it the game goes to overtime is a loss, but you risk less juice.

For those who wonder the difference between playing money line and Regulation. For tomorrow's game The Washington Capitals  are -155 favorite on the Money Line, but playing them on regulation you got them EVEN (+100).


I can't find the regulation line at any of my books.  Which books have it?  thanks

gentruchi PM gentruchi
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Posted: 10/11/2010 8:12:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by doubledime:

I can't find the regulation line at any of my books.  Which books have it?  thanks



BetCris allows them, I guess bookmaker.com will be their American version. Look for NHL 3 Way Lines.

By the way, tonight there was a play. Philadelphia Flyers -155 ML. Looking good so far .


therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 10/11/2010 9:36:08 PM

Hopefully PHI pulls this out.  Looks like LA is a play for tomorrow.

 

Just want to express caution again.  I know little about hockey.  The potential strength for this system will be the aggressive labby and high win percentages.  You will need a good sized bankroll relative to your play size to be successful with this (if it is like MLB) but over the grind of the season we will hopefully be in the black.  I have not played this before this year and have no idea how it will go.  Good luck whatever you decide

HotShotPicks PM HotShotPicks
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Posted: 10/12/2010 1:16:56 AM
Thx for the update.
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