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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football -6 game chase 3480-1 since 1980
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#201
Posted: 10/19/2012 12:26:33 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ringored:

I looked into playing the last 6games ooouuu, but after back checking 2 conferences, I found 3 failures along with other problems like pushes. It sounded great but I will just wait until next year. Nice job, Dan!

 

Just to be fair, it's not my system. I just stumbled across this thread and decided to test it this year. I may try it for real next year now that I'm in Vegas.

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#202
Posted: 10/19/2012 6:05:48 PM

Week 8 here we go. 2 teams left.

Game 5 - Vanderbilt 45 under (Wynn)

Game 6 (final game): TCU 55 under

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#203
Posted: 10/20/2012 10:21:22 PM

Well we are done.

Game 5 - Vanderbilt 45 under (Wynn) 

Game 6 (final game): TCU 55 under 

123-1 on a 6 game chase. With my betting the system would have been a gain of 44.6 units. Not too bad in 8 weeks.

I've been back testing an idea I have with the NFL for O/U and if it proves playable I will start a new thread. Thanks to Nelsie, the original poster of this thread and system. Might be one I do for real next year.

 

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#204
Posted: 10/30/2012 6:45:42 PM
 congrats pal!
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#205
Posted: 8/29/2013 1:06:42 AM

Ok, I'm starting this up again for the new college football season.

Rules recap:

  • We bet on all Div 1 (FBS) teams to get an Over in one of their first 3 games. If all 3 games go Under we switch to betting the Under for their next 3 games. Basically we are betting against a team going UUUOOO.
  • Only games vs other Div1 teams count. For example Boston College plays Villanova this week, that game will not count in this chase. BC will start game 1 on 9/6 when they play Wake Forest.
  • Pushes are considered as a no play, as if the game never happened.

I think that pretty much covers it. This thread has some interesting reading if you have the time. Plays for the week will be in my next post.

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#206
Posted: 8/29/2013 1:18:19 AM

I'll be using the lines that I get in Vegas. If you have different lines that create a different result than what I post, adjust accordingly. There are 125 FBS teams, so a possibility of 125 units. I probably won't chase this to the end if I have a decent profit along the way, but will still post the plays for the official chase. Keep in mind that there will be a lot of plays so even a small better using $10 as a unit can easily lay out $1000 or more in a given week. For week 1 since each team is a Div 1 team, we will bet to win 2 units, one for each team.

All games for the OVER

Thursday:

  • S. Carolina/N. Carolina 56.5
  • UNLV/Minnesota 51.5
  • Tulsa/Bowling Green 48
  • Utah/Utah St 51.5
  • Mississippi/Vanderbilt 53.5
  • Rutgers/Fresno St 54.5
  • USC/Hawaii 53.5
  • Akron/Central Florida no line yet, will update if I get one

Friday:

  • W. Michigan/Michigan St. 44.5
  • Florida Atlantic/Miami (Fl) 53.5
  • Texas Tech/SMU 59.5
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#207
Posted: 8/29/2013 1:22:54 AM
Using 55 for the Akron/Central Florida game Thursday.
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#208
Posted: 8/29/2013 11:16:40 AM
Ok. Let's do this. I'm following. I like it. Thanks Dan
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#209
Posted: 8/29/2013 12:45:59 PM
Dan, should I still take Tulsa over since I have 50.5?
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#210
Posted: 8/29/2013 12:50:31 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Red_Soxxxxxxxx:

Dan, should I still take Tulsa over since I have 50.5?

Wow that line went up from what I got earlier this week. The system calls to bet the over, so your call if you want to place that bet with the higher line.

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#211
Posted: 8/29/2013 4:06:01 PM
Dan, do you have an NFL system.?
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#212
Posted: 8/29/2013 4:14:41 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Red_Soxxxxxxxx:

Dan, do you have an NFL system.?

I just do this for college.

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#213
Posted: 8/29/2013 4:55:33 PM
Proceed with caution. I have researched this system extensively over the past number of years. It can and it has lost. When the system dictates a game 6, just think of the players today who had to endure a miracle win (Detroit vs Oakland) in just game 4 of the post all-star game system. Imagine having to lay 3K to win 100 in just game 4.  Granted, it is a money line system but still a gut wrenching time for one's bankroll.

Not to rain on the parade but a lot of factors and luck have to occur for any 6 game system to hit. The question is "does one have the stones to go the distance?"

GL


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#214
Posted: 8/29/2013 5:22:13 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Proceed with caution. I have researched this system extensively over the past number of years. It can and it has lost. When the system dictates a game 6, just think of the players today who had to endure a miracle win (Detroit vs Oakland) in just game 4 of the post all-star game system. Imagine having to lay 3K to win 100 in just game 4.  Granted, it is a money line system but still a gut wrenching time for one's bankroll.

Not to rain on the parade but a lot of factors and luck have to occur for any 6 game system to hit. The question is "does one have the stones to go the distance?"

GL


Absolutely correct. My betting progression is $11 to win $10 on game 1, $27.50 to win $25 on game 2, $55 to win $50 on game 3, $110 to win $100 on game 4, $236.50 to win $215 on game 5, $495 to win $450 on game 6.

I very much doubt that I will chase anything to a 6th game. If all other teams win that's at least a $1240 profit on those teams less $440 in losses for a team after a 5 game loss. I'd easily take a $800 profit.  If 2 teams go to a 6th game that would be a $350 profit without playing that 6th game. Gets a little tricky if multiple teams go to game 5-6. Like I said in an earlier post, if I'm up $400-$500  after a few weeks, I'll personally stop the chase and walk with profit.

It'll be fun to track. Here we go....

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#215
Posted: 8/29/2013 7:41:46 PM
Is the record of 3480-1 since 1980 accurate?
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#216
Posted: 8/29/2013 7:46:40 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Red_Soxxxxxxxx:

Is the record of 3480-1 since 1980 accurate?

It was when this post started. I know there was 1 loss when I did this last year.

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#217
Posted: 8/29/2013 10:40:01 PM
Dan, I have a question. How do you have the possibility of 125 units with 125 teams if you only use every team once. Example: Minnesota/UNLV went over the total. Does that  mean both teams are finished in this system because if so, then it's impossible to win 1 unit per team, correct?
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#218
Posted: 8/29/2013 10:56:22 PM
Sorry Dan. I just went back and read your post of betting 2 units per team. I messed this up today. I bet one unit per game.
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#219
Posted: 8/30/2013 12:40:05 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Red_Soxxxxxxxx:

Sorry Dan. I just went back and read your post of betting 2 units per team. I messed this up today. I bet one unit per game.

Yes, sorry if I wasn't clear. Well you missed out on one unit but probably saved money on the losses tonight. Just adjust going forward and as was mentioned, watch your bankroll. My test last year had me wagering up to $1200 on a Saturday.

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#220
Posted: 8/30/2013 2:28:19 AM

Thursday results:

Thursday:

  • S. Carolina/N. Carolina 56.5 Loss
  • UNLV/Minnesota 51.5 Win
  • Tulsa/Bowling Green 48 Loss
  • Utah/Utah St 51.5 Win
  • Mississippi/Vanderbilt 53.5 Win
  • Rutgers/Fresno St 54.5 Win
  • USC/Hawaii 53.5 Loss
  • Akron/Central Florida 55 Loss

8 teams eliminated, 8 go to game 2.

Friday:

  • W. Michigan/Michigan St. 44.5
  • Florida Atlantic/Miami (Fl) 53.5
  • Texas Tech/SMU 59.5
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#221
Posted: 8/30/2013 10:12:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Ok, I'm starting this up again for the new college football season.

Rules recap:

  • We bet on all Div 1 (FBS) teams to get an Over in one of their first 3 games. If all 3 games go Under we switch to betting the Under for their next 3 games. Basically we are betting against a team going UUUOOO.
  • Only games vs other Div1 teams count. For example Boston College plays Villanova this week, that game will not count in this chase. BC will start game 1 on 9/6 when they play Wake Forest.
  • Pushes are considered as a no play, as if the game never happened.

I think that pretty much covers it. This thread has some interesting reading if you have the time. Plays for the week will be in my next post.



This is a good system and I've been playing it for a few years now, getting burned once with Miami(Ohio) I believe, who did go UUUOOO.  It takes a lot of bank to play all of the FBS teams, so what I do now is play just the pre-season top 25 or 30 teams, which gives you some pretty good action, but requires a lot less BR.  If you have the bank and the balls, by all means do the whole enchilada.  Top 25 is a good way to get your feet wet or if your BR has suffered during MLB, it can help you recover.  GLTA
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#222
Posted: 8/31/2013 3:40:37 AM

Friday results:

  • W. Michigan/Michigan St. 44.5  Loss
  • Florida Atlantic/Miami (Fl) 53.5 Loss
  • Texas Tech/SMU 59.5 Win

10 teams eliminated, 12 go to game 2.

Saturday games:

  • Mass/Wisconsin 54
  • C. Michigan/Michigan 53
  • Buffalo/Ohio St 55
  • La tech/NC State 63
  • Florida Intl/Maryland 49.5
  • N. Illinois/Iowa 53
  • Temple/Notre Dame 53
  • BYU/Virginia 49.5
  • Alabama/Va. Tech 46.5
  • UAB/Troy 63
  • Purdue/Cincy 50.5
  • Kentucky/W. Kentucky 57.5
  • Miami (OH)/Marshall 68.5
  • Miss St./ Oklahoma St 63
  • La Monroe/Oklahoma 60.5
  • Texas St/Southern Miss  55
  • New Mexico State/ Texas 57.5
  • Rice/Texas A&M 67.5
  • Toledo/Florida  56
  • La. Lafayette/Arkansas 57
  • Washington St./Auburn 61
  • Idaho/ N. Texas 58
  • Penn St. / Syracuse 51.5
  • Wyoming/ Nebraska 66.5
  • Texas SA/ New Mexico  55.5
  • Georgia/ Clemson 71
  • LSU/TCU 49.5
  • Boise St. /Washington 52
  • Nevada/UCLA 67
  • Northwestern/California 60

Sunday:

  • Ohio/Louisville 58
  • Colorado/Colorado St 49
  • Florida St./Pittsburgh 49.5

 

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#223
Posted: 8/31/2013 3:52:11 AM
looking at almost 7k in action tomorrow....  
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#224
Posted: 8/31/2013 4:32:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dallasm:

looking at almost 7k in action tomorrow....  

You are betting far more than I am my friend. Good luck, I hope we have lots of winners. I will be at the House of Blues at Mandalay Bay on Saturday drinking tequila with one if my favorite bands, Roger Clyne and the Peacemakers. 
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#225
Posted: 8/31/2013 6:07:37 AM
Will you list the game 2 and game 3 etc for us when they play so we don't have to bother tracking? 
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