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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football -6 game chase 3480-1 since 1980
gbpackman send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#176
Posted: 9/25/2012 3:56:04 AM

Covers had Vandy over 49.5

Final score 48-3

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#177
Posted: 9/25/2012 4:19:02 AM
So does Miss St
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#178
Posted: 9/25/2012 11:19:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gbpackman:

Covers had Vandy over 49.5

Final score 48-3

I had Vandy at 51 through the Station Casinos. That is where I will most likely bet so I went with that. Would be easy to take the lower total that Covers had, but it wouldn't be a true test for how I would bet. Where does covers get their lines? Just curious. Since I'm in Vegas, I use my local lines.

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#179
Posted: 9/26/2012 6:46:50 PM
I believe covers uses pinny.

Great system by the way. Will be on all of these this weekend.
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#180
Posted: 9/27/2012 6:48:38 PM

Ready for week 5, here are the lines I have right now, I will shop for lines in Vegas on Friday for Staurday's games:

Game 2:  Cincy 45.5 over

Game 3: TCU 54.5 over, Oregon St 60 over, Wash 48.5 over, Texas A&M 64 over. Oklahoma and Vandy DNP stay on game 3 next week.

Game 4: Boise St 52 under, Tulane 55 under, Utah St 52.5 under. Miss St DNP this week and stays on game 4 next week.

 

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#181
Posted: 9/27/2012 6:55:24 PM

BTW for the NFL we'd be down to 3 teams on game 4 (unders) Dallas, AZ, Seattle. Or should we chase overs? See below.

Did some back testing for the past 5 seasons and found if you did a 6 game chase just like for the NCAAF one, but used all OVERS the system went 160-0 with only 3 teams going to a game 6. In 2009 Washington pushed in week 1 then finally got an over in week 7, Washington in 2007 pushed in week 1, had a week 4 bye and went over in week 7, Tenn in 2007 had a bye in week 4 and went over for the first time in week 7.  

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#182
Posted: 9/28/2012 11:24:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

BTW for the NFL we'd be down to 3 teams on game 4 (unders) Dallas, AZ, Seattle. Or should we chase overs? See below.

Did some back testing for the past 5 seasons and found if you did a 6 game chase just like for the NCAAF one, but used all OVERS the system went 160-0 with only 3 teams going to a game 6. In 2009 Washington pushed in week 1 then finally got an over in week 7, Washington in 2007 pushed in week 1, had a week 4 bye and went over in week 7, Tenn in 2007 had a bye in week 4 and went over for the first time in week 7.  



I believe chasing overs is a better play.
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#183
Posted: 9/30/2012 2:09:34 AM

Week 5 results: 4 wins, 4 losses, 3 DNP. 7 teams left!

Cincy, Oregon St, Texas A&M, Utah St (under) all won

Oklahoma, Vandy DNP - game 3 next week

TCU, Washington loss - game 4 next week

Miss St DNP - game 4 next week

Boise St, Tulane loss - game 5 next week

 

 

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#184
Posted: 9/30/2012 2:13:26 AM
Bottom line after 5 weeks:

I used $10 as a unit. Game 1 bet $11 to win $10. If they went to game 2 bet $27.50 to win $25, game 3 is $55 to win $50, game 4 is $115.50 to win $105. With those in mind, would have laid out $902 in week 1, $1100 in week 2, $1177 in week 3, $1116.50 in week 4, $594 in week 5. Was up $673.50 after week 4. Week 5 was a $111 loss, so up $562.50 total.

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#185
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:31:22 PM

Ready for week 6. There are 7 teams left.

Game 3: Vandy 44 over, Oklahoma 57.5 over ($55 to win $50 ea)

Game 4: TCU 42 under, Washington 65.5 under, Miss St. 46.5 under ($115.50 to win $105 ea)

Game 5: Boise St. 47 under, Tulane 55 under ($242 to win $220 ea)

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#186
Posted: 10/7/2012 8:24:06 PM

Week 6 results: 3 wins, 4 losses. 4 teams left!

Oklahoma (over) Miss St and Tulane (both under) all won

Vandy (over) lost goes to game 4 next week

TCU, Washington (both under) lost - game 5 next week

Boise St. (under) loss - game 6 next week (Yikes!)

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#187
Posted: 10/10/2012 12:37:10 AM
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#188
Posted: 10/12/2012 7:52:12 PM

Week 7 here we go. 4 teams left. Sure am glad I'm testing on here before actually laying money down. Would be kind of nervous with all these 4-6 game chases.

 

Game 4 - Vandy 41 under

Game 5 - TCU 68.5 under, Washington 55 under

Game 6 (final game): Boise State 57.5 under

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#189
Posted: 10/13/2012 10:37:55 PM

Split this week going 2-2 but still a profit since the game 6 team won.

Game 4 - Vandy 41 under

Game 5 - TCU 68.5 under      Washington 55 under

Game 6 (final game): Boise State 57.5 under

Vandy goes to game 5, TCU to the dreaded game 6. I probably would have stopped after week 4 when I was up 67.35 units, or after week 5 up 56.25 units. With the big win by Boise St., up 73.1 units but two big bets for next week. I'll track them for the systems sake but I would have bought my wife the wine fridge she wants and pocketed the rest a while ago.   

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#190
Posted: 10/14/2012 5:14:52 AM
Is Vandy the same as Vanderbilt ? In that case they went under against MISOU last week and are not part of the system anymore.
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#191
Posted: 10/14/2012 10:01:10 AM
There are 12 games to the season. Does anyone know where I am going with this?
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#192
Posted: 10/14/2012 10:09:49 AM

Dan, are you going to bet over NE/SEA?

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#193
Posted: 10/14/2012 12:48:16 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by sahlsa:

Is Vandy the same as Vanderbilt ? In that case they went under against MISOU last week and are not part of the system anymore.

Yes, Vandy is Vanderbilt. They were on game 3 last week, so we were still betting the OVER.

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#194
Posted: 10/14/2012 12:54:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ringored:

Dan, are you going to bet over NE/SEA?

Since 2007, every team has had at least 1 over in their first 6 games (a push would extend to game 7. Seattle is the last team remaining so they system would say yes. I'm just tracking, not placing any real $$. If you do, good luck, I hope it goes over.

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#195
Posted: 10/14/2012 1:43:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Yes, Vandy is Vanderbilt. They were on game 3 last week, so we were still betting the OVER.


They are UUNOUO, they went under in 4.

http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/teams/pastresults/2012-2013/team115.html
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#196
Posted: 10/14/2012 2:25:57 PM
See post 178. Nowhere in Vegas could you get Vandy at 49.5. The best I could find was 51, so it was a push. I don't use the numbers at Covers since I don't bet with offshore books. If you do, then cross Vandy off. I'm keeping them since I will be betting in vegas and only use Vegas lines.
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#197
Posted: 10/14/2012 7:49:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ringored:

Dan, are you going to bet over NE/SEA?

Seattle OVER. That makes the NFL 6 run over chase 192-0 since 2007.

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#198
Posted: 10/18/2012 3:36:49 AM
What do you do if case like this happen?

Team A: ooou (looking for the over in game 5)
Team B: oo     (looking for the under in game 3, for some reason like team B has played with div-2 twice and not counted the record)
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#199
Posted: 10/18/2012 1:51:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hyvong:

What do you do if case like this happen?

Team A: ooou (looking for the over in game 5)
Team B: oo     (looking for the under in game 3, for some reason like team B has played with div-2 twice and not counted the record)

Interesting question, never really thought about it as it didn't come up this year. I'm assuming in your scenario team A and B are playing each other. I think you have it backwards because the system calls for betting the OVER in the first 3 games then the under. In any case I would place 2 bets, with the larger bet on Team A obviously. I would also try to find a difference in the line between books. A 1.5 to 2 point difference might not seem like much but you could hit both bets.

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#200
Posted: 10/19/2012 12:02:15 PM
I looked into playing the last 6games ooouuu, but after back checking 2 conferences, I found 3 failures along with other problems like pushes. It sounded great but I will just wait until next year. Nice job, Dan!
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