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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football -6 game chase 3480-1 since 1980
bargainboytrav
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#126
Posted: 10/1/2010 6:53:59 PM
He said "Treat the game as if it never happened" So I would assume the teams like Michigan should have already completed.
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#127
Posted: 10/1/2010 9:43:14 PM

Basically should this be looked at as a teams 1st 6 games (not counting any 1-aa games in their 1st 6) OR the 1st 6 weeks of the season. That might clear up some confusion.

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#128
Posted: 10/1/2010 10:42:57 PM
Anyone know the official answer? that the record of this system is based off of?
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bargainboytrav
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#129
Posted: 10/7/2010 4:22:19 PM

Does anyone know which teams, if any, are left?  I really goofed last week because I was real confused at the ramifications. Thanks

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#130
Posted: 10/9/2010 11:33:19 PM

Miami(oh) was a game 6 today. The play was under 53. The score at half time was Cinn. 45 - Miami(oh) 3 and no one scored in the second half.  Unbelievable!!  Texas is a game six next week. They are the only team I have left.

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#131
Posted: 10/10/2010 5:24:55 AM
Easy win 

I also only have Texas Longhorn left on the list.
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bargainboytrav
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#132
Posted: 10/11/2010 4:26:31 PM
So just to make sure before I play this next year, we are looking for overs in the first 3 weeks only, disregarding any NL or pushes, then we automatically bet unders on the remaining teams in the next 3 weeks?  For example, if a team went U NL U, the next game we would bet the under?  I screwed up two weeks ago with this.
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Luckydan
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#133
Posted: 10/12/2010 2:51:17 PM
Playing the first 6 week system discarding any NL games, there are 6 teams still in play.

Texas (6) Under  (last team to play only D-1 opponents)
Iowa St (6) Under
Baylor (6) Under
Rutgers (5) Under
C. Fla (5) Under
Boston C. (5) Under

Please advise if I have overlooked any team. For anyone playing this system since week 1, best of luck. Miami (O) would have made any player age 20 years with their game (6) last week.

GL
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bargainboytrav
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#134
Posted: 10/12/2010 4:38:10 PM
Luckydan, are you sure this is the right way to look at it?  It was said that you should look at ONLY the first 6 games of the season and you simply pass up the NL or pushes.  If this was the case, Iowa State would have already been a system loss and all the others except Texas would have been finished.  I think it would make a lot more sense if I was doing this research to simply look at 3 U's followed by 3 O's for every team, but I'm not really sure.  I wish Neilsy would come back to explain it better.
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#135
Posted: 10/13/2010 10:33:22 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Playing the first 6 week system discarding any NL games, there are 6 teams still in play.

Texas (6) Under  (last team to play only D-1 opponents)
Iowa St (6) Under
Baylor (6) Under
Rutgers (5) Under
C. Fla (5) Under
Boston C. (5) Under

Please advise if I have overlooked any team. For anyone playing this system since week 1, best of luck. Miami (O) would have made any player age 20 years with their game (6) last week.

GL

This looks correct to me using covers data.  We are betting AGAINST the trend UUUOOO and all of the teams have fallen into this pattern so far (not including non division 1 games).  Bet against this trend and take the under.

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matt4000
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#136
Posted: 10/14/2010 4:57:25 PM

Central Florida went over, so this goes to a game (6).

AM I READING THIS RIGHT?

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Luckydan
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#137
Posted: 10/14/2010 5:51:52 PM
That is correct. Amazing that prior years have had very few game 6's, but this year will have at least 5 and the possibility of 2 more (Rutgers and BC).

GL
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#138
Posted: 10/18/2010 12:23:13 PM

Texas,Iowa St.,Boston Col   covers.

Rutgers and C. Flor go to game 6

Baylor is a system loss(2nd sys loss since 1980)

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Luckydan
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#139
Posted: 10/18/2010 10:20:40 PM
Oklahoma State lost in 2005.






Saturday 11/26/05 @ Oklahoma L 14-42 Week 13 L 17.5 O 52
Saturday 11/19/05 @ Baylor L 34-44 Week 12 L 3 O 46
Saturday 11/12/05 Texas Tech W 24-17 Week 11 W 23 U 63.5
Saturday 10/29/05 Texas L 28-47 Week 9 W 37 O 59
Saturday 10/22/05 @ Iowa State L 10-37 Week 8 L 13 O 44.5
Saturday 10/15/05 @ Texas A&M L 23-62 Week 7 L 20.5 O 53
Saturday 10/08/05 Missouri L 31-38 Week 6 L 5.5 O 50
Saturday 10/01/05 Colorado L 0-34 Week 5 L 3.5 U 43
Saturday 09/17/05 Arkansas State W 20-10 Week 3 L -24.5 U 48.5
Thursday 09/08/05 @ Florida Atlantic W 23-3 Week 2 W -13.5 U 49
Saturday 09/03/05 Montana State W 15-10 Week 1 N N
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#140
Posted: 10/19/2010 10:56:20 AM
Luckydan,  does your research only have 3 losses as far as you've gone back. Also when did you start playing this system.
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Luckydan
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#141
Posted: 10/19/2010 3:29:22 PM
roguewager,

I started in week 2 using only teams with all games vs D-1 opponents. With this system (modified or regular), I would encourage you not to play week one. I did this in the NFL as well. It seems that the first week rarely wins. The juice with a number of games kills you.

Texas under vs Nebraska was the last one standing using teams with only D-1 opponents. Talk about cutting it close. The week before with Miami (O) was even worse. Very lucky.

I randomly researched teams over the past 10 years or so. While I am sure that there are other teams that lost, OSU in 2005 is the only one that I can show. The matter with the non lined games seems to be the biggest obstacle with this system. How to use or not use games with these teams, thus why I looked for a "clean" schedule using only teams that are void of these 1-AA teams. Also, there have been a number of games where 1 point in the total makes a world of difference. A win in week 2 (with a favorable total) beats a loss and having to chase till week 5. This year there have been games that close as well. Shopping lines in totals is as important as anything using this system. UCLA vs SDS is a good example in 2009.

I am looking forward to next year already. While the last two weeks have been stressful (games 5 and 6), this way of using the system eliminates any doubt.

GL
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#142
Posted: 10/20/2010 12:16:40 PM
Thanks Luckydan for the info, I'm lookin forward to next year too
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#143
Posted: 10/20/2010 1:04:30 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by roguewager:

Thanks Luckydan for the info, I'm lookin forward to next year too

Luckydan i noticed that you are following this system for NFL (original syst) starting week one. Do you know how many week 4 and 5 chases occurred this year. I think you said the last final team is Min this week betting under( week 6 chase). Thanks

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Luckydan
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#144
Posted: 10/20/2010 10:04:57 PM
roguewager,

This is a copy of a partial post made in the NFL thread regarding this system. The chase was over pretty quick with the exception of GB and Mn. Mn has been pain to say the least. Hopefully they will finish the system in style this weekend.

GL



The original system starting from week one has two remaining teams: Minnesota and GB. The first week was a nightmare: 8 O, 22 U and 2 Pushes. Week two was 14 O and 10 U=plus approx.7 units. Week three (last week) is where one made the money. 8 O and 2 U : plus approx. 25 units. Chasing the last two teams will take some guts. Laying 10+ units on each team to win one unit each. Tough call. Pray that you win both as week 5 (21 units) and week 6 (45 units) will test any player's makeup. In theory, the system appears to be a good one. The potential of having 2 teams in week six would make it very uncomfortable.
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#145
Posted: 10/24/2010 9:10:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by roguewager:

Texas,Iowa St.,Boston Col   covers.

Rutgers and C. Flor go to game 6

Baylor is a system loss(2nd sys loss since 1980)

Rutgers and C Flo   LOSE game 6

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#146
Posted: 8/23/2012 2:57:41 PM
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#147
Posted: 8/30/2012 1:09:28 PM
Anyone have a list of teams who ONLY play D1 schools the first 6 weeks of the season?  If I'm reading this correctly....If u obly played those teams last year, Texas was the only one to go to a game 6.

I would like to go this route if anyone had the list?

Thanks!
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#148
Posted: 9/3/2012 3:12:17 PM
Came across this thread and figured I'd test it out on paper before putting any money down. Still pending is tonights Ga Tech/Va Tech game. Results for week one are 44 teams went over and are now done, 36 teams went under and go to game 2, while 42 teams either didn't play or played a non Div1 team, thus no line.
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#149
Posted: 9/9/2012 2:17:27 AM

After week 2 here are the results:

Week 1: Game 1 - 44 wins, 38 losses, 42 did not play (80 teams left)

Week 2: Game 1 - 20 wins, 20 losses, 2 did not play

Week 2: Game 2 - 12 wins, 12 losses, 14 did not play

Totals - 76 wins, 48 teams remain - 2 still need to play game 1, 34 go to game 2, 12 to game 3.

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#150
Posted: 9/10/2012 9:57:04 PM
and the remaining 48 teams are........drum roll.....?
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