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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football -6 game chase 3480-1 since 1980
nolemonasses send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#101
Posted: 9/27/2010 8:13:50 PM
Prime, who is left to still need an Under?
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#102
Posted: 9/27/2010 8:36:53 PM
WEEK 5

The field has been narrowed a bit further, and we will look to complete this Chase over the next 2 weeks.  WEEK 5 and WEEK 6, we are looking for ONE UNDER for these remaining teams:

Take the UNDER:  Texas, Miami (OH), Michigan, Missouri, NC State, Cinn, Conn, Minnesota, Mississippi, San Jose State, and Colorado State.  Add Iowa State to this list, this was a no wager last week as they toyed with a 1-AA opponent this week.

Two teams are technically in Week 4 as they are playing in their fourth game:   Take the UNDER: Clemson and Kent State, both were Idle this week.  We will be looking for ONE UNDER for each of these two teams over the next three weeks if necessary.

105 Wins in the bank, we still need 15 wins to complete the System!

See you at the top.
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Luckydan
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#103
Posted: 9/27/2010 10:24:53 PM
Clemson has 2 unders this year. Play over in 3rd game vs Miami.
Michigan, Missouri, NCState, Cincy, UConn, Minnesota, Ole Miss,SJS, CSU?  have already gone over within first 3 lined games.

Miami (O) game 5 vs Kent is a conflict as was last week's game Missouri vs Miami (O).

GL
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#104
Posted: 9/28/2010 1:05:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Clemson has 2 unders this year. Play over in 3rd game vs Miami.
Michigan, Missouri, NCState, Cincy, UConn, Minnesota, Ole Miss,SJS, CSU?  have already gone over within first 3 lined games.

Miami (O) game 5 vs Kent is a conflict as was last week's game Missouri vs Miami (O).

GL

Lucky,
I respectfully disagree.  Please go back and read Post #1.  The system is OOOUUU.    Any game that involves a Division 1 team is a PASS = No wager.   I don't understand why Covers "creates" a line for these situations, when NO line exists anywhere for a Division 1 team vs. a Division 1-AA team.  VegasInsider correctly shows there Was No line for these games, while Covers "creates" a line that doesn't exist, which can cloud your insight, and this thread with confusion.   Lucky, trust me, I mean no disrespect to you, I just want to lift the cloud, and provide concise direction.

The first 3 weeks of the season we were looking for an OVER.  Any team that did not achieve an OVER in the first 3 weeks we will need to Achieve One more UNDER in week 4,5 or 6  = OOOUUU.
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#105
Posted: 9/28/2010 1:12:21 AM
Record correction.  106 wins in the bank, we still need 14 wins to complete the system.

best of Luck.
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#106
Posted: 9/28/2010 10:32:22 AM
Prime,

There seems to be a few  ways to play this system. I have
only played the teams with all LV lined games this year. I originally stated that Iowa St was one of  approx. 46. I was incorrect. They played N.Iowa last week. Every one of these teams have won with the exception of Miami (O). This  week will be their 5th game in the chase. My way of using the system eliminates the guesswork of teams with non lined games in their schedules.

Please note that this system has done well in the NFL this season.  There are only 2 teams left to win: Minnesota and Green Bay. Game #4 is upcoming for both.

GL
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#107
Posted: 9/28/2010 10:40:30 AM
I was going to wait to start the NFL chase until this week, Week 4. Do you think the results will be the same and that I can win all of the chases beginning now?
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#108
Posted: 9/28/2010 11:08:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bwcareer:

I was going to wait to start the NFL chase until this week, Week 4. Do you think the results will be the same and that I can win all of the chases beginning now?


I touched lightly on this subject  If you go back and read post #65.  The backtesting was for NFL 2009 only.   I'll try to go back and check 2008, 2007 tonight to see how they fared.

If an NFL system has any weight, I would gladly start a new thread to keep this thread purely "college",  out of respect for Neilsy.

I need to learn how to do the sportsdatabase search that Neilsy uses, so we can speed up the results here for our "Think Tank".

Back later.  
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#109
Posted: 9/28/2010 7:54:24 PM
Quickly reeviewing this same system in the NFL OOOUUU for this season.   It appears after week 3 is in the books, only 2 teams would not have an OVER.  Green Bay and Minnesota.  Which means we would be chasing ONE UNDER for both Green Bay and Minnesota over the next Three weeks.



Green Bay plays game 4 vs. Detroit on Sunday Oct. 3rd.  and Minnesota has a bye this week, and won't play it's fourth game until Monday night, vs. the Jets, on October 11th.

back later.


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#110
Posted: 9/28/2010 8:41:01 PM
the research was based on lined games ..pushes and non-lined games don't count...so if a team has a push..or no line at all ..treat it as thuogh the game didnt even happen..gl ( POST #97)

Prime,

Why is Clemson to be played under when they have gone U vs North Texas, no play vs Pres., U vs Auburn? The author of the system clearly states that the I-AA games are to be ignored. Not here to spare with you but clarification needs to be addressed. It may be Clemson's fourth game but only their third lined game.

GL
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#111
Posted: 9/28/2010 11:37:44 PM
LD,
You have a great point.  I also looked back at post #4, mlb1234, and now I need to rethink this.

Thanks for your insight, and keeping focused on the need for clarification, and the true "spirit" of the thread.

I will recalculate, and we can work out the bugs shortly.




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#112
Posted: 9/29/2010 12:01:53 AM
Hey Prime. I did all the numbers for the ooouuu in the NFL starting with Week 4. I went back four years. I will make a new thread tomorrow when I have a little more time. Hope you will join me in that thread to help out a bit and just have another brain to work with. I think the numbers look really promising for some profit. See you tomorrow!

 
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#113
Posted: 9/29/2010 1:28:28 AM
thanks for all the insight guys.

what are the numbers running in starting week 7?

think it is possible to run 2 complete cycles in a season?
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#114
Posted: 9/29/2010 1:30:11 AM
so basically if you win 119 and lose 1 you win 119u and lose 121u??

so you would b down 2 u
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#115
Posted: 9/29/2010 1:31:49 AM
also are these lines you guys get the opening lines or what they closed at?
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#116
Posted: 9/30/2010 12:20:01 AM
Streamline,

For the sake of this thread and system, using Cover's closing number (total) is what I have used. Better numbers are available thru various outlets but everyone can see what the consensus number is with this site.

GL
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#117
Posted: 9/30/2010 12:23:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Streamline,

For the sake of this thread and system, using Cover's closing number (total) is what I have used. Better numbers are available thru various outlets but everyone can see what the consensus number is with this site.

GL


thanks,

what about week 7 -12... i'm not good with the sportsdatabase... wondering what record is trying it 2x in a season
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#118
Posted: 9/30/2010 12:35:31 AM
Streamline,

No idea on any history. I spent hours researching the 1-6 week chase. You might run into games that have two teams needing different results to win. One team need an over, the other needing an under. Bye weeks could prove to be an issue. Motivation for bad teams might be an issue as well. If you are laying out money, I would take the time to research weeks 7-12 as much as possible.

GL
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#119
Posted: 9/30/2010 12:52:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Streamline,

No idea on any history. I spent hours researching the 1-6 week chase. You might run into games that have two teams needing different results to win. One team need an over, the other needing an under. Bye weeks could prove to be an issue. Motivation for bad teams might be an issue as well. If you are laying out money, I would take the time to research weeks 7-12 as much as possible.

GL


true, probably would have to eliminate any teams that play any div 1aa teams and put all kinds of restrictions on this test sample to produce anything which is sketchy to begin with. 

if this does end up 120 unit will be kicking myself for not jumping on.
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#120
Posted: 9/30/2010 8:27:05 PM

Yea I've been following, but I'm kinda gettin a little nervous.  We still have 15 teams remaining in week 5.  Taking a look at the last 4 years, it seems there were usually only 4 or so that would remain.  Keepin the fingers crossed...

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#121
Posted: 9/30/2010 10:30:08 PM
With all due respect to Prime and others, there are 16 teams remaining in this chase. Note that all 1-AA games are not included in my way of playing this system. I use Cover's final total as a guide. I have tried to follow the author's instructions as best that I can. See Post #97. Games of this week are:

Boston College over game 3   UU
Clemson over game 3             UU
Virginia over game 2               U
Iowa St under game 4             UUU
Baylor under game 4              UUU
Miami (O) under game 5         UUUO
Rutgers over game 3              UU
Indiana over game 3               UU
Penn St under game 4           UUU
C Fla under game 4               UUU
Kent St over game 3 (conflicts with Miami (O) ) UU
Temple under game 4            UUU
Ball St over game 2               U  (Push with Iowa)
Air Force under game 4         UUU
Colorado St under game 5 (could have gone over vs Nevada but not according to Covers)             UUUO
MTSU under game 4 played on 10/5/2010  UUU

Please point out any errors.

GL
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#122
Posted: 9/30/2010 10:40:51 PM
I played 45 division one teams of which did not have any 1-AA teams on their schedule.  I only have two teams left of the 45, which are Miami(Oh) and Texas.  Luckydan does not have Texas listed as I play, I'm not sure when he won with them.
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#123
Posted: 10/1/2010 12:18:29 AM
akello9,

I made an earlier post in this thread about these 45 or 46 teams that do not play any 1AA teams this year. I have played this version of the system, and like you, have done well to date.

I did omit Texas. They are a team in play as this will be game #5 in the system. An under play is in order for them, as you well know.

GL
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#124
Posted: 10/1/2010 2:15:07 PM
so, luckydan and prime have completely different teams this week.... which is correct??
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#125
Posted: 10/1/2010 6:52:13 PM

I'm also confused now.  I thought a no line game would just be skipped over, so a team like Michigan who went U U then NL-one would still bet O the next game last week and the chase would be over.  Instead, what you are suggesting Prime is that we basically treat the NL games as a loss? I could be understood though...

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