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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football -6 game chase 3480-1 since 1980
nolemonasses send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#76
Posted: 9/5/2010 8:13:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nolemonasses:

Originally Posted by nolemonasses]

My plays (tops 25 teams only):

Over 53
MIAMI OHIO vs FLORIDA 

Over 51.5
UL LAFAYETTE vs GEORGIA 

Over 56.5
TEXAS vs RICE 

Over 55
NEW MEXICO vs OREGON 

Over 51.5
SAN JOSE STATE vs ALABAMA 

Over 57.5
UTAH STATE vs OKLAHOMA 

Over 51.5
WESTERN KENTUCKY vs NEBRASKA 

Over 57.5
ARKANSAS ST vs AUBURN 

Over 50
OREGON STATE vs TCU (to win 2 units)

Over 43.5
NORTH CAROLINA vs LSU 

Over 54.5
WISCONSIN vs UNLV  pending 

Over 50.5
BOISE ST vs VIRGINIA TECH x2 units pending

And winners with

#2 OSU over 46.5

#14 USC over 53.5

#15 Pitt over 49

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#77
Posted: 9/5/2010 6:31:24 PM

where thehell did everybody go?

Must be the holliday weekend.

Nice start to the top 25 version...

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#78
Posted: 9/7/2010 9:53:03 PM

Week 1 Tally: 14-4 and 7 no bets (off-board games)
MIAMI OHIO vs FLORIDA 

UL LAFAYETTE vs GEORGIA 

TEXAS vs RICE 

NEW MEXICO vs OREGON 

SAN JOSE STATE vs ALABAMA 

UTAH STATE vs OKLAHOMA 

WESTERN KENTUCKY vs NEBRASKA 

ARKANSAS ST vs AUBURN 

OREGON STATE vs

TCU 

NORTH CAROLINA  vs

LSU 

WISCONSIN vs UNLV  

BOISE ST vs

VIRGINIA TECH

#2 OSU over 46.5

#14 USC over 53.5

#15 Pitt over 49  

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#79
Posted: 9/7/2010 9:53:48 PM

Awesome start to the top 25 version.

Up 9.6 units.

 

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#80
Posted: 9/9/2010 11:47:18 AM
No,Looks like your top 25 version might be the way to go on this.  I'm doing the full 120 team version and was up 2.5 units the first week.  Only using $10 units because of the large bank required for 120 teams.


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Luckydan
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#81
Posted: 9/9/2010 1:40:42 PM
46 teams of the 120 play entirely D1 schools on their respective schedules. This past week 44 had a game. Those teams went 33-10-1 over the total. The actual games ended up approx. 22-8-1 over the total. Alabama was either a push or loss.

The ten teams that did not go over were: BYU, Colorado, Colorado St, Florida, Iowa St, Notre Dame, Miami (O), Toledo, Washington, Oklahoma.


NM State and Fla Int are the 2 other teams. They open up this week.

Perhaps another angle to consider.

GL
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#82
Posted: 9/9/2010 3:23:38 PM

Luckydan, looks interesting. I like it. So you are up 22 units? Wow.

What are you guys gonna do about the teams that played D2 schools week 1? Count it as missed over number 1 and this week is a wager on over #2? Or, start wagering them this week as over #1?

GL

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Luckydan
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#83
Posted: 9/9/2010 4:41:31 PM
I am not up 22 units. I have just taken an interest in this system. I wish I had of. Hindsight, as the saying goes, is always 20-20. It could fall apart this week. Hope that will not be the case.



GL
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#84
Posted: 9/9/2010 4:57:27 PM

I would like to see if the NFL has any margin for porfit with this system.

Do you know where I can find numbers from years past to do a little research on the ooouuu idea in the NFL?

 

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#85
Posted: 9/9/2010 5:16:38 PM
Go to the NFL section of this site.Click on scoreboard and you can go back a number of years. It has proven to be a good system. There have been a couple of teams that have messed the players up over the years , but last year the chase was over well within 6 weeks. I have researched a number of years, team by team. It is well worth the consideration. My conclusion for the NFL is wait until Week 2 to start. The first week tends to lose or juice out. One can start Week 2 with one unit or two per team, depending on bankroll/risk tolerance. One man's opinion.


GL
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#86
Posted: 9/9/2010 6:44:52 PM

If you look at the last couple of years, more teams start with an Under than Over. Meaning if you bet every team to be UNDER the first game a line is posted for them you will win more than you lose. Having said that, my first week bets on the under went 17-22. Meaning 2*17 teams = 34 were UNDER. 2*22=44 were OVER. That is only 68 of the 120 teams, so it is only a little over 1/2 the sample for week 1.

Just some food for thought.

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#87
Posted: 9/9/2010 8:30:01 PM

Good stuff guys. Thanks for the feedback.

 

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#88
Posted: 9/11/2010 11:30:48 AM

4 teams left for me. I am tossing out the 7 teams from last week that were off the board.

FLA, TEX, BAMA, OKLA.

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#89
Posted: 9/13/2010 12:51:49 PM
Hey guys,,, thanks for following up on this. I have been out of town at weddings the past 2 weekends, and did not have time to do this ..(i wish i had of !) .. i hope the rest of the chase pull through ..on to NHL/NBA !!!
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#90
Posted: 9/14/2010 5:29:36 PM
Neilsy, I sent you a friend request. 
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#91
Posted: 9/21/2010 5:56:14 PM
I've been charting this thread for the past few weeks and I'd like to share what I've tracked so far.    I went through the teams that did not have an OVER in their first three games.   If there was no total for the game an any offshore book or it Pushed I just skipped that game and moved on to the next week.   When a Division One team plays a 1-AA Team, there is no side or total for the game on most offshore books.

After 3 weeks of OVERS, the following teams did not achieve an OVER against a Division 1 opponent, or they had a PUSH.

Texas, Miami (OH), BYU, Michigan, Missouri, NC state, Temple, Air Force, Baylor, Central Fla, Clemson, Penn St., Purdue, Buffalo, Cinn, Conn, Iowa State, Kent State, Mid.Tenn.St., Minnesota, Mississippi, San Jose St., Colorado St.    Now we should be looking for an UNDER for these 23 teams in the next 3 weeks.

There are still 3 teams without a 3rd game played, looking for an OVER this week.  They are:  Tulane, VA, and Fla Int.

This is my understanding of the 120 team OOOUUU system.  Just wondered if anyone else is still following?   Chasing games 4, 5, and 6 should be much more tolerable with this sample size. 





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#92
Posted: 9/21/2010 9:21:09 PM

Nice work prime. I stopped my chase after week 2 doing he top 25 teams from week 1. Didn't want to push my luck any further and pulled away with a nice little profit.

Since you did the hard work of updating who is still a play, I might wait another week and see who is left and do basically a 2 game chase.

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#93
Posted: 9/22/2010 3:57:25 PM
Just found this thread...after reading through it, based on primes list of teams left to play, if we chase those teams UNDER the next 3 weeks, they are as close to a lock as there is in sports betting? meaning that chasing those teams to an UNDER the next 3 games, they will have lost only 1 time since 1980 correct? They all would seem like MUST BETS am i correct?
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#94
Posted: 9/24/2010 5:16:49 PM
dlunc3,

I thought there would be more talk in this thread at the half way point, now heading into week 4.   I share your enthusiasm, and hope others will weigh in before Saturday afternoon.  

BOL...
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#95
Posted: 9/24/2010 6:04:30 PM

Prime, I'm gonna wait and see who is still left after this weekend and pick up the chase next week as a 2 game chase. I am doing this to reduce the risk, plus some teams had pushes or played FCS teams, and I'm not sure how that plays into the record of the system.

BOL to you.

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#96
Posted: 9/24/2010 7:34:21 PM

Yea, do you know what the procedure is for teams that played a division 1 school with no line or had a push is?  Looks like there are only a few teams left that actually had 3 unders in the 3 games with lines.  Anyway...very interesting system-plan to follow it!

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#97
Posted: 9/25/2010 1:14:59 PM
the research was based on lined games ..pushes and non-lined games don't count...so if a team has a push..or no line at all ..treat it as thuogh the game didnt even happen..gl
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#98
Posted: 9/25/2010 3:06:32 PM
well....0-5 start to the day... not what we were hoping for..
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#99
Posted: 9/27/2010 5:58:06 PM
Week Four Recap:  BYU, Temple, Air Force, Baylor, Central Florida, Penn State, Purdue, and Mid.Tenn.State All achieved an UNDER this week.

All Three Teams that needed an OVER this week completed their task, they were Tulane, Virginia, and Florida International.

Clemson and Kent State Were Idle this week, Iowa State was skipped as they toyed with a 1-AA opponent and so now they are in week five still looking for an UNDER.   So week four resulted in 8 wins, 12 losses.

Back Later....

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#100
Posted: 9/27/2010 6:02:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Prime1:

Week Four Recap:  BYU, Temple, Air Force, Baylor, Central Florida, Penn State, Purdue, and Mid.Tenn.State All achieved an UNDER this week.

All Three Teams that needed an OVER this week completed their task, they were Tulane, Virginia, and Florida International.

Clemson and Kent State Were Idle this week, Iowa State was skipped as they toyed with a 1-AA opponent and so now they are in week five still looking for an UNDER.   So week four resulted in 8 wins, 12 losses.

Back Later....



REVISION:  Week Four Resulted in 11 wins and 12 losses, forgot the 3 teams that achieved an OVER. 

Back Soon....
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