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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football -6 game chase 3480-1 since 1980
neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 6/20/2010 9:27:28 PM

yup its true..i am basing this on 120 Div 1 teams times over 29 years ..could be a few more or less as a few years may not have had exactly 120 Div 1 teams....this chase had never lost since 1980 until last year when Bowling Green was the first  ...even then it made $$ . The key is to win one unit per team , once that team gets their unit you are done with them for the season ..sometimes simpler strategies are the easiest.... so what is the chase ?..since 1980 only 1 team has ever started the season with 3 unders followed by 3 overs.(i.e uuuooo) -Bowling Green last year..therefore you simply bet every team over there first 3 games..when they hit they are done...then bet the remaining teams under the next 3, once all teams are done you are done... definetely open to suggestions..but i think the smartest way to play this would be to use the grand martingale progression to 6 games as follows

1 -3-7-15-31-64   for  121 units..that way even if lightning strikes twice and we get another chase loss this year..we are going to make more than the 121 units we lost with the other 119 teams hitting on games 3,4,5 etc ..and if all teams complete the chase as has happened in 28 of the past 29 years you are looking at a minimum of 120 units profit..probably closer to 150-160 depending on which games of the progression the winners come in

- also i think it would be smart to not actually bet week one, to save the juice on 60 or so bets..and then in week 2 start with 3 units on all the teams that had Unders week one

..here is the query on sportsdatabase...

game number=7 and pppppp:ou margin<0 and ppppp:ou margin<0 and pppp:ou margin<0 and ppp:ou margin>0 and pp:ou margin>0 and p:ou margin>0

 

 

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#2
Posted: 6/20/2010 9:38:32 PM
I'm still not exactly sure what's the best strategy to capitalize off this idea, but.....

I tried the opposite as well. What team has ever gone over in the first 3 games, and then under in the next 3? (ooouuu)?

I don't know how many years back sportsdatabase goes, but Louisiana Monroe in 2007 was the only team that popped up?

game number=7 and pppppp:ou margin>0 and ppppp:ou margin>0 and pppp:ou margin>0 and ppp:ou margin<0 and pp:ou margin<0 and p:ou margin<0
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#3
Posted: 6/20/2010 9:45:33 PM
sportsdatabase goes to 1980 for NCAAF .. I thought i had queried both but apparently not.. maybe go for 2 units per team ?..i dunno, could end up with a lot of units in play...regardless..this is a very strong stat that between now and August we have plenty of time to find the best way to maximize the profits from..
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#4
Posted: 6/20/2010 11:11:10 PM
Saturday 11/28/09 @ Duke W 45-34 Week 13 W -3.5 O 53.5
Saturday 11/14/09 Florida State L 28-41 Week 11 L -5 O 58
Saturday 11/07/09 @ Georgia Tech L 27-30 x Week 10 W 14 U 60.5
Saturday 10/31/09 Miami L 27-28 Week 9 W 6.5 O 51.5
Saturday 10/24/09 @ Navy L 10-13 Week 8 L -2.5 U 47
Saturday 10/17/09 @ Clemson L 3-38 Week 7 L 8.5 U 48
Saturday 10/10/09 Maryland W 42-32 Week 6 L -13 O 52
Saturday 10/03/09 North Carolina State W 30-24 Week 5 W -3 O 50.5
Saturday 09/26/09 @ Boston College L 24-27 x Week 4 L 1 O 40.5
Saturday 09/19/09 Elon University W 35-7 Week 3 W -19.5 U 46
Saturday 09/12/09 Stanford W 24-17 Week 2 W -3 U 45.5
Saturday 09/05/09 Baylor L 21-24 Week 1 L -2.5 U 53.5
whats up bro, just seeing if this would be a loss? this is Wake Forrest from last season. im thinking it would be because they started out with 3 unders then they went over the next 3. I like your premise of this system especially the grand martingale, my only suggestion would be not betting unders, especially in college fb. but i only looked at acc for 2009.
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#5
Posted: 6/20/2010 11:28:52 PM

Makes me lose confidence in this system already. Thanks mlb1234.  I was really looking forward to checking this out. NOPE! MLB1234 is my man. 

 

neilsy25, I'm sure you worked hard on this, maybe you missed something. Maybe the place you looked didn't give you all the stats you needed. IDK, as my son would say.  Do some more research and let us know what you find.  Sometimes, I know it takes a lot of time, but researching team by team, not just a quick database is the best. Maybe that's where the stats are scewed. Let us know neilsy25. 

 

Thanks for the info.

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#6
Posted: 6/20/2010 11:34:59 PM

checked it quick.the discrepancy is in the  game 9-19 vs Elon..Sportsdatabase does not have a total line for this game, i checked on statfox as well ..no total  line for that game either..i think it is fairly common for there not to be a total line when a team plays a non Div 1 team like Elon ..not sure where covers got their o/u line..will check a few other places..

 

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#7
Posted: 6/20/2010 11:39:47 PM
no line for this game from vegasinsider.com either... anyone know any other place to check ?. as it stands now, i do not think Wake Forest is a loss...
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#8
Posted: 6/20/2010 11:46:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by neilsy25:

checked it quick.the discrepancy is in the  game 9-19 vs Elon..Sportsdatabase does not have a total line for this game, i checked on statfox as well ..no total  line for that game either..i think it is fairly common for there not to be a total line when a team plays a non Div 1 team like Elon ..not sure where covers got their o/u line..will check a few other places..

 

I was with you on this bro. I have never seen a line on a Elon game for college FB. but i was just going off this sites lines. from what ive seen, there may be alot to this method of betting. there are 2 problems i can see coming up tho.

1. when teams play each other your only making 1 unit per team, so that will reduce amount of $ won per season.

2. very big problem imo is: bankroll required for doing this. lets say for arguments sake there are 20 teams that go past game 3. week 4 you will have 300 units in play for week 4 (15u x 20 teams). now lets suppose your trying to make $100 per team. u will need $3000 to make this happen. for me this would be no problem, but for most people $3000 is alot of $. obviously you wont lose all 20 games, and you will not win every game, so for week 5 and 6 your gonna be in same spot.

I do believe this method of betting can be very profitable, but I would recommend not playing every conference unless you got big $ to support weeks 4-6 of progression

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#9
Posted: 6/20/2010 11:47:49 PM

Do you have a breakdown of game 1 winners, game 2, etc...

Curious to see if you could use some Labby lines for each game

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#10
Posted: 6/20/2010 11:55:48 PM
mlb ... when teams play each other you bet each team... i.e, if it is 3 units on each team .then you bet the game 6 units total..as far as bankroll., my next step will be to find out exactly how many winners there are each week ..easy enough to do, just query it week by week... but i mean ..if i only need $3000 to bet to win $100 a team.. that is a 12k profit or a 400% return in 6 weeks..my guess is you probably need more than the 3k ..closer to 6k ..even then a 200% return in 6 weeks..i will take..going to bed now..but tommorow i will run a few seasons to give the breakdowns  of winnners/losers each week ..after that should have a much better idea of bankroll requirments..
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#11
Posted: 6/21/2010 12:05:42 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by neilsy25:

mlb ... when teams play each other you bet each team... i.e, if it is 3 units on each team .then you bet the game 6 units total..as far as bankroll., my next step will be to find out exactly how many winners there are each week ..easy enough to do, just query it week by week... but i mean ..if i only need $3000 to bet to win $100 a team.. that is a 12k profit or a 400% return in 6 weeks..my guess is you probably need more than the 3k ..closer to 6k ..even then a 200% return in 6 weeks..i will take..going to bed now..but tommorow i will run a few seasons to give the breakdowns  of winnners/losers each week ..after that should have a much better idea of bankroll requirments..

I agree 100% if there is a way to make 200% in 6 weeks during football season what you have can really crush a books bottom line for an entire year. 95% of what books make for the year is done during football season. i stopped betting football for this reason, 99.5% of bettors lose money this time of year especially NFL.

if this method of betting holds true for past 5 years i will def. be in. I will look more into it the next few days as well. thanks for bringing to attention

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#12
Posted: 6/21/2010 12:05:56 AM

scotty, i was wondering about the usefulness of labby lines..so far i think maybe the grand martingale might work better.but again, i will provide more of a breakdown tommorow to help

mlb 1234... in your scenario above where i have 20 teams left, at 15 units a team...that would also mean i have cleared 100 chase of $100 ..meaning i  have made at least 10k at that point, and it would be more than 10k depending on the level the games hit..so i think at this point it would pay for itself..i really appreciate the input though..like i said, i will provide a weekly breakdown for the past few seasons..and from there I should be able to run mock bankroll estimates for each week...

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#13
Posted: 6/21/2010 1:25:06 AM
did all the D1 teams from last season and only BG lost 6 in a row which we already knew. and wake forrest was possible depending on Elon game the other teams there were 3 other series that went to game 6 i believe i only eyed balled the year and didnt write it down... also another bit of info. eyeballed the entire NFL with same method and no team went past 3 games for 09-10 season
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#14
Posted: 6/21/2010 1:42:51 AM
Interesting  
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#15
Posted: 6/21/2010 11:12:12 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by mlb1234:

did all the D1 teams from last season and only BG lost 6 in a row which we already knew. and wake forrest was possible depending on Elon game the other teams there were 3 other series that went to game 6 i believe i only eyed balled the year and didnt write it down... also another bit of info. eyeballed the entire NFL with same method and no team went past 3 games for 09-10 season

MLB ..sportsdatabase only has 1 series going to game 6..and that was Bowling Green ..you remember off hand who the others were ? .. I have done the week by week record for the past 4 years.. which i will try to add in another post, it doesn't usually format to well pasting from excel thuogh ..

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#16
Posted: 6/21/2010 11:18:53 AM

I know this won't paste correctly ..but to follow along the numbers from left to right are

week  wins -losses- profit-units bet- total profit-exposure

(by exposure i mean how many units of the original bankroll are in play..(total units bet - profit to date) ..very encouraging ..even in 2009 with the loss it was +36 units..owever after week 5 it was up 99 units,..and i probably would have hedgedmy bets at that point..anyway here are the numbers..looks like generally you will need 150 units to run this ,.,and can expect to double your investment in 6 weeks..

 

2006    w       l       profit  units bet       total profit    exposure       
2006                            units bet       total profit    exposure       
week 1  73      47      18.7    120     18.7    120    
week 2  23      21      -0.9    132     17.8    114.2  
week 3  13      8       25.9    147     43.7    129.2  
week 4  7       1       79.5    120     123.2   76.3   
week 5          1       -31     31      92.2    none   
week 6  1               64              156.2          
2007                                                   
week1   72      48      16.8    120     16.8    120    
week 2  35      13      55.5    144     72.3    127.2  
week 3  9       4       28.7    91      101     19.3   
week 4  2       2       -3      60      98      none   
week 5  4       0       111.6   124     209.6          
2008                                                   
week1   69      51      11.1    120     11.1    120    
week2   37      14      57.9    153     69      141.9  
week 3  8       6       8.4     98      77.4    29     
week 4  2       4       -33     90      44.4    12.6   
week 5  4       0       111.6   124     156     79.6   
                                                       
2009                                                   
week 1  70      50      13      120     13      120    
week 2  32      18      32.4    150     45.4    137    
week 3  12      6       33.6    126     79      80.6   
week 4  3       3       -4.5    90      74.5    11     
week 5  2       1       24.8    93      99.3    82     
week 6          1       -63     63      36.3           

 
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#17
Posted: 6/21/2010 11:45:55 AM
I encourage anyone who has time to randomly check teams manually and make sure that sportsdatabase is correct, I have found there numbers to be 100% accurate in all the spot checking I have done on various teams ., but hey , better to find a mistake now than  in October ! .. So basically here is the system ..try to break it !
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#18
Posted: 6/21/2010 12:00:20 PM

teams past week 4

Nebraska -5

BG -6 L

Ball St. -6

this what i came up with for 2009

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#19
Posted: 6/21/2010 12:30:58 PM
Yes..Nebraska i have as well, cashing in week 5. and again with Ball St. the discrepancy is a game vs a non Div 1 team, (New Hampshire) that only Covers seems to have a total for.. Sportsdatabase is consistent in that it does not have totals vs non Div 1 teams.. simple filter for this system  - games vs non Div 1 teams are no plays ..
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#20
Posted: 6/21/2010 1:46:44 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by neilsy25:

Yes..Nebraska i have as well, cashing in week 5. and again with Ball St. the discrepancy is a game vs a non Div 1 team, (New Hampshire) that only Covers seems to have a total for.. Sportsdatabase is consistent in that it does not have totals vs non Div 1 teams.. simple filter for this system  - games vs non Div 1 teams are no plays ..

thinking the same thing. I dont even know of any books that offer lines for d-1 vs d-2 teams. why covers does show this i dont know, but thats what i used to track last season

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#21
Posted: 6/21/2010 2:37:08 PM

neilsy, curious on your thoughts on this scenario. with regards to week 1.

lets assume all 120 teams open on the same day. so we will play 60 games. now lets say that all 60 games win and we make a profit of 60 units. the goal is to make 120 for the season, how do we win the other 60 units? obviously this wont happen, but my main question is what do we do about the teams that win opening week. we are gaining 1 unit but taking 2 teams off the "chase"

hope this question makes sense and not to confusing

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#22
Posted: 6/21/2010 3:11:56 PM
If you have 2 teams facing each other, you end up having 2 units on the game.  One for each team.  Thats how you will make 120 for the season.
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#23
Posted: 6/21/2010 3:20:21 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by HECTAR:

If you have 2 teams facing each other, you end up having 2 units on the game.  One for each team.  Thats how you will make 120 for the season.

wont think this will work with money management proposed

1u 3u 7u 15u 31u 63u.

only thing i would think is having 2u on all opening games then starting the chase

2u 3u 7u 15u 31u 63u thoughts?

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#24
Posted: 6/21/2010 3:36:18 PM
You have 2 different Unit Progressions per game when you start..

Example.. If Michigan is at Michigan State, you would a line progression start for each team..

Michigan - 1u 3u 7u 15u 31u 63u
Michigan St. - 1u 3u 7u 15u 31u 63u

So you would place 2 separate wagers, one on Michigan Over, and another on Michigan State Over.

If it wins, you win your 2 Units.. if it loses, then next game is 3u on Michigan and 3u on State, against whoever their opponents are the 2nd week.
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#25
Posted: 6/21/2010 3:47:28 PM
yup..thats it exacly Kreatture ..
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