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[Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA OT OVER SYSTEM CHASE |
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robwalton |
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#76 Posted: 2/19/2010 4:36:41 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by the_vig:
What about CLE and DEN? 
yep Cleveland and Denver are now plays too, since they went into OT tonight. Will update it in the afternoon when the lines come out |
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semaper |
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#77 Posted: 2/19/2010 2:18:55 PM Rob, do you have the success distribution for each step?. I mean (for example):
A: 40%
B: 30%
C: 20%
D: 10%
I try to obtain the unit progression that maximize the benefits. 
That depend of both factors (unit for each step and success distribution for each step).
Sorry for some mistakes in my arguments  |
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robwalton |
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#78 Posted: 2/19/2010 4:43:37 PM For those who are following
53-1 before this thread started
34-2 since being posted 87-3 overall record
Pending Series
TOR [A], MEM [A], CLE [A], DEN [A]
Games for today
TORONTO [A] / New Jersey - Over 198.5
Miami / MEMPHIS [A] - Over 188.5
CLEVELAND [A] / Charlotte - Over 191.5
DENVER [A] / Washington - Over209 |
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robwalton |
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#79 Posted: 2/19/2010 4:44:51 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by semaper:
Rob, do you have the success distribution for each step?. I mean (for example):
A: 40%
B: 30%
C: 20%
D: 10%
I try to obtain the unit progression that maximize the benefits.
That depend of both factors (unit for each step and success distribution for each step).
Sorry for some mistakes in my arguments
I have those figures at home, just at work right now i will put them up later tonight |
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the_vig |
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#80 Posted: 2/19/2010 10:38:22 PM
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the_vig |
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#81 Posted: 2/19/2010 11:03:59 PM
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the_vig |
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#82 Posted: 2/19/2010 11:10:44 PM
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the_vig |
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#83 Posted: 2/19/2010 11:14:03 PM
On to game B with 3 of them Rob, GL.
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robwalton |
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#84 Posted: 2/20/2010 5:02:39 PM For those who are following
53-1 before this thread started
35-2 since being posted 88-3 overall record
Pending Series
TOR [B], MEM [A] [B], DEN [A], MIA [A]
Games for today
Washington / TORONTO [B] - Over 205
MIAMI [A] / Dallas - Over 184.5 |
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semaper |
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#85 Posted: 2/20/2010 5:53:52 PM Rob, something about the success distribution that I asked?
Thanks!
P.S: Incredible Miami-Memphis yesterday in 2 OT keep the under!!  |
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robwalton |
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#86 Posted: 2/21/2010 12:26:29 PM For those who are following
53-1 before this thread started
37-2 since being posted 90-3 overall record
Pending Series
MEM [A] [B], DEN [B], OKL [A], NY [A]
Games for today
MEMPHIS [A] [B] / New Jersey - Over 193.5
Boston / DENVER [B] - Over 198
OKLAHOMA [A] / Minny - Over 201 |
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robwalton |
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#87 Posted: 2/21/2010 1:30:58 PM semaper here are the numbers you wanted
41 a bet wins
22 b bets wins
16 c bets wins
11 d bets wins |
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robwalton |
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#88 Posted: 2/22/2010 2:22:26 AM For those who are following
53-1 before this thread started
41-2 since being posted 94-3 overall record
Picked up 4 more series wins tonight. 2 perfect nights in a row, lets try for another one on Monday night
Pending Series
NY [A], SA [A], DET [A], UTA [A], POR [A]
Games for today
Milwaukee / NEW YORK [A] - Over 206.5
Atlanta / UTAH [A] - Over 197 |
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semaper |
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#89 Posted: 2/22/2010 11:53:06 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by robwalton:
semaper here are the numbers you wanted
41 a bet wins
22 b bets wins
16 c bets wins
11 d bets wins
Thanks for the info rob 
I guess so that numbers don't includes the last night perfect results, right?
If that is correct the update distribution are:
41 + 2 = 43 A bet wins
22 + 2 = 24 B bet wins
16 C bet wins
11 D bet wins
I will try to do some calcs in order to build an optimal mount bets proportion
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the_vig |
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#90 Posted: 2/22/2010 4:08:39 PM
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robwalton |
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#91 Posted: 2/22/2010 4:53:48 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by semaper:
Thanks for the info rob
I guess so that numbers don't includes the last night perfect results, right?
If that is correct the update distribution are:
41 + 2 = 43 A bet wins
22 + 2 = 24 B bet wins
16 C bet wins
11 D bet wins
I will try to do some calcs in order to build an optimal mount bets proportion
yeah those numbers dont count last night |
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anna31204 |
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#92 Posted: 2/22/2010 5:12:23 PM rob,
if the A bets are at 43 wins out of 97, why not take the under in the first game after overtime ... that would put you 54 wins out of 97 (55.6%) and no need to chase ... did you have info in your research that led away from that ??? just wonderin'
enjoy the thread ... nice work !!!
anna31204 |
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robwalton |
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#93 Posted: 2/22/2010 6:11:37 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by anna31204:
rob,
if the A bets are at 43 wins out of 97, why not take the under in the first game after overtime ... that would put you 54 wins out of 97 (55.6%) and no need to chase ... did you have info in your research that led away from that ??? just wonderin'
enjoy the thread ... nice work !!!
anna31204
that is something to take into consideration. the reason why i took the Over option for this they had better numbers going back to the 07-08 season, what i mean is less system losses. when i started to post on here the Overs had 1 system loss and the unders had 3, so thats why i decide to take the Over |
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robwalton |
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#94 Posted: 2/23/2010 5:31:44 PM For those who are following
53-1 before this thread started
42-2 since being posted 95-3 overall record
Pending Series
NY [B], SA [A], DET [A], POR [A]
Games for today
NEW YORK [B] / Boston - Over 197
PORTLAND [A] / New Jersey - Over184.5
DETROIT [A] / Sacramento - Over 196.5 |
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semaper |
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#95 Posted: 2/24/2010 4:06:56 PM Rob, sorry for my bad english but I will try explain to you my points of view about your system.
I done some calcs about the optimal wager mount distribution for each step (A,B,C,D) in your system and then I found some interesting data:
1) The system's theorical yield assuming bets mount like the typical aritmetic progression (A=1, B=2, C=4, D=8) with flat success distribution (4 picks winning: one in A, one in B, one in C and one in D) and no loss is 32.3%
2) The system's real yield assuming the typical aritmetic progression and the results until last night (A=45, B=25, C=16, D=11 and 3 losses) is 25.6%
3) My discover is that if we increase the bets mount aritmetic progression to multiple 3 instead of 2 (A=1, B=3, C=9, D=27) then the yield grow up to 40.9% 
4) The handicap is that you need a more deep bankroll, since in one lose system you go down 40 bankroll units instead of 15 bankroll units of the multiple 2 system
I wait your comments...
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robwalton |
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#96 Posted: 2/24/2010 5:34:43 PM For those who are following
53-1 before this thread started
44-2 since being posted 97-3 overall record
Pending Series
SA [A], DET [B],
Games for today
Oklahoma / SAN ANTONIO [A] - Over 193.5
DETROIT [B] / La Clippers - Over 189 |
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robwalton |
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#97 Posted: 2/24/2010 5:36:28 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by semaper:
Rob, sorry for my bad english but I will try explain to you my points of view about your system.
I done some calcs about the optimal wager mount distribution for each step (A,B,C,D) in your system and then I found some interesting data:
1) The system's theorical yield assuming bets mount like the typical aritmetic progression (A=1, B=2, C=4, D=8) with flat success distribution (4 picks winning: one in A, one in B, one in C and one in D) and no loss is 32.3%
2) The system's real yield assuming the typical aritmetic progression and the results until last night (A=45, B=25, C=16, D=11 and 3 losses) is 25.6%
3) My discover is that if we increase the bets mount aritmetic progression to multiple 3 instead of 2 (A=1, B=3, C=9, D=27) then the yield grow up to 40.9%
4) The handicap is that you need a more deep bankroll, since in one lose system you go down 40 bankroll units instead of 15 bankroll units of the multiple 2 system
I wait your comments...
So your saying to make even more profit from this we should be betting 1, 3, 9, 27??? |
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semaper |
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#98 Posted: 2/25/2010 9:21:39 PM Yep, around 15% plus of the yield
So, rob, one question: Do you think that system applies for another sports (NHL, MLB, etc)? It's will be successful too?
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anna31204 |
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#99 Posted: 2/27/2010 8:23:17 AM robwalton,
two nice hits last night w/ ny (c) and san antonio (b) ... 4 o.t. games last night too, so looks like no down time waiting for a new series ... good luck ...
anna31204
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robwalton |
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#100 Posted: 2/27/2010 8:54:11 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by anna31204:
robwalton,
two nice hits last night w/ ny (c) and san antonio (b) ... 4 o.t. games last night too, so looks like no down time waiting for a new series ... good luck ...
anna31204
thanks anna, and sorry guys I didnt have internet access for most part of the early evening and i couldnt put the plays that were for last night. |
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