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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: usaKangy's NHL Chase system from last year...
gasman33
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#1
Posted: 10/28/2009 12:06:28 AM

Last year usaKangy & I followed a NHL chase system from expertcapper...we modified it and usaKangy proposed the following "system"...

"I decided to open up a new thread for this basic system developed by expert and tracked by gasman.  This system is the plain jane system expertcapper started using before his tweaks to his current system.  Here is a little spinoff from this system. 

Use the system as stated and use it in the NHL only:

1)  Wait for an OT/SO game.
2)  Look at the line on both teams' next games.
3)  If the o/u line is 5.0 take the OVER.
4)  If the o/u line is 5.5 take the UNDER
5)  If the o/u line is 6.0+ take the OVER
6)  Chase each team for 3 games (using the 1-unit, 2-unit, 4-unit method)

Here are the added twists...

7)  If game is a loser, and that game also goes into OT/SO, continue playing old series as normal, but start a NEW series with that team as well.  For instance, if chasing Atlanta for UNDER 5.5 in game 2 of a chase and Atlanta beats Dallas in OT 4-3, the game is a loser.  Play Atlanta for the 3rd game of a chase and, in addition, play Atlanta and Dallas as 1st games of a new chase.

If you did this from the beginning of the year the series record is 213-22 (+59 units) not factoring the juice.  Furthermore, chasing just a 2-game series, the record is 193-44 (+61 units) not factoring the juice.

Then apply the next stipulation...

8)  Chase only teams that played the OT/SO game as the home team.  For example, if Atlanta was hosting Dallas, and the game went into OT/SO, then just play Atlanta in a chase (regardless of whether they are away or home in their next game).

Doing this in a 3-game chase from the beginning of the season, chasing only teams that were at home during the OT/SO game and applying step 7, the record stands at 108-8 (+52 units) not factoring the juice.  This means chasing the teams that were on the road are just 105-14 (+7 units).  Using the two-game chase and chasing a team that was hosting the OT/SO game, the record is 98-19 (+41 units) not factoring the juice.  Chasing a road team in a 2-game chase is only 95-25 (+20 units)

The system also does not take into consideration average goals scored for a team or against a team, so we are not excluding any teams even if they are the top scroing team in the league.

So I will track each of the four systems and give each a letter as follows:

System A: 3 GAME ANY TEAM CHASE SERIES (213-22 +59 units)
System B: 2 GAME ANY TEAM CHASE SERIES (193-44 +61 units)
System C: 3 GAME HOME TEAM ONLY CHASE SERIES (108-8 +52 units)
System D: 2 GAME HOME TEAM ONLY CHASE SERIES (98-19 +41 units)"

...well usaKangy tracked this last year and they all profitted but System C seemed to be the "best bet" for the last 2 seasons.

I will try to keep this "system" going this year for the "System C " bets....




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gasman33
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#2
Posted: 10/28/2009 12:17:26 AM

26Oct09 NYI played @ Monteal...OT game

so first play will be :

(CAP LETTERED TEAM is Chase team)

28Oct09  MON/pitt...Under 5.5...1 unit

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#3
Posted: 10/28/2009 1:16:00 AM

Nice....

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#4
Posted: 10/28/2009 8:24:19 AM
Gasman, thanks.  How is that working so far this year?  I have not tested it yet with this years results.  Been very busy.
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#5
Posted: 10/28/2009 9:28:13 AM

What's another NHL chase system to play??  Because I have had so much fun with the Away JM chase!!  I'll give this a whirl....

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#6
Posted: 10/28/2009 9:55:59 AM
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#7
Posted: 10/28/2009 10:24:16 AM
Hey Gasman is this chase on the ML only or is PL involved?
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#8
Posted: 10/28/2009 11:14:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by smitler:

Hey Gasman is this chase on the ML only or is PL involved?


Uhhh, I haven't bet a whole lot of hockey?  . . . but I didn't know that there was an option to bet on the PL or ML for an over/under bet. . . . interesting  
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#9
Posted: 10/28/2009 12:02:16 PM
There are 2 plays here, the under and Montreal. I'm asking ML or PL?
I'm asking about System C and D.  Refer to item 8.
Montreal is in capital letters which means chase them.
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#10
Posted: 10/28/2009 1:25:30 PM
Gas, i'll thank you in advance. Looks like you've got alot of work on your hands. Looking forward to the results.
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#11
Posted: 10/28/2009 2:22:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by smitler:

Hey Gasman is this chase on the ML only or is PL involved?

Smitler, this is a totals chase.
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#12
Posted: 10/28/2009 2:30:46 PM
It basically means, the series involves that team's over/under total for game.  If both Atlanta and Montreal played a home overtime game last night, then we would chase both teams.  If both happen to play each other, then we would bet to win 1 unit on the appropriate total for Atlanta AND another unit on the same total for Montreal.  Does that help? 
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#13
Posted: 10/28/2009 3:47:32 PM
Backtesting the "C" series to the beginning of this year, the series record for three game chase is 28-2, with 7 pending.

10/1 TOR [A] - W
10/2 CHI [A] - W
10/3 BUF [A] - W
10/3 NYI [A] - W
10/3 DAL [C] - L
10/6 PHI [A] - W
10/6 CAR [B] - W
10/6 MIN [C] - W
10/6 EDM [B] - W
10/8 OTT [C] - W
10/8 TB [A] - W
10/8 EDM [A] - W
10/10 BOS [B] - W
10/10 PHI [C] - L
10/10 CHI [B] - W
10/11 VAN [B] - W
10/12 WAS [C] - W
10/12 CHI [A] - W
10/12 SJS [B] - W
10/14 CAR [A] - W
10/15 PHX [A] - W
10/17 WAS [B] - W
10/17 DET [A] - W
10/20 MON [C] - W
10/21 NYI [C] -W
10/21 MIN [A] - W
10/22 PHI [B] - Pending
10/22 OTT [B] - Pending
10/22 PHX [C] - Pending
10/22 LAK [C] - Pending
10/23 PIT [A] - W
10/24 MON [A] - W
10/24 OTT [A] - Pending
10/24 NYI [A] - W
10/24 TB [A] - Pending
10/24 MIN [A] - W
10/26 MON [A] - Pending

A games 16-18-2
B games 7-9-1
C games 5-2


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#14
Posted: 10/28/2009 6:08:43 PM
Good stuff guys............

To gain an edge in lost units you think Labbying it would be an idea and carrying the series loss spread out over the next few series or so?
The worst juice I can see is around -140 or so for a play
Not bad for a chase


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#15
Posted: 10/29/2009 12:07:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gasman33:

26Oct09 NYI played @ Monteal...OT game

so first play will be :

(CAP LETTERED TEAM is Chase team)

28Oct09  MON/pitt...Under 5.5...1 unit

Montreal UNDER 5.5 Wed 28Oct09 LOST...

so next play on Montreal is Friday 30 Oct09 vs Chi...2units

...line not posted yet on O/U...

Also Dal was home team in OT ...so they also are a play

30 Oct09 DAL/fla....1 unit

to answer some questions...The O/U Play or bet is just a straight bet...say betting $27.50 to win $25 or $110 to win $100

...No ML or PL....

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gasman33
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#16
Posted: 10/29/2009 7:30:28 AM

San Jose also won in OT last night....

 

sooooo next plays....

Friday 30Oct09...... MON/chi.....[B]

                       .....DAL/fla....[A]

                       .....SJ/col....[A]

[A]....1 unit play

[B]...2 unit play

[C]...4 unit play

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#17
Posted: 10/29/2009 9:22:20 AM
Thank for all this good info.

Deb
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#18
Posted: 10/30/2009 12:15:33 AM

sooooo next plays....Chase teams are in Green...

Friday 30Oct09...... MON/chi.....[B]

                       .....DAL/fla....[A]

                       .....SJ/col....[A]

Sat 31 Oct09...EDM/bos....[A]

[A]....1 unit play

[B]...2 unit play

[C]...4 unit play

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gasman33
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#19
Posted: 10/30/2009 12:19:08 AM

sooooo next plays....Chase teams are in Green...

Friday 30Oct09...... MON/chi.....[B]...Under 5.5

                       .....DAL/fla....[A]...Under 5.5

                       .....SJ/col....[A]...Under 5.5

Sat 31 Oct09...EDM/bos....[A]

[A]....1 unit play

[B]...2 unit play

[C]...4 unit play

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gasman33
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#20
Posted: 10/30/2009 7:36:49 AM

sooooo next plays....Chase teams are in Green...

Friday 30Oct09...... MON/chi.....[B]...Under 5.5

                       .....DAL/fla....[A]...Under 5.5

                       .....SJ/col....[A]...Under 5.5

Sat 31 Oct09...EDM/bos....[A]

Mon 2Nov09...LA/pho...[A]

[A]....1 unit play

[B]...2 unit play

[C]...4 unit play

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#21
Posted: 10/30/2009 9:32:24 AM
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#22
Posted: 10/30/2009 7:54:02 PM

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#23
Posted: 10/31/2009 1:07:48 AM

Great system so far!  Simple too.  Keep up the good work.  I am just trying to see if I have all the plays caught up.  I agreed with your plays on 10/30/09.  However, I also showed Toronto as a play.

For tomorrow, I am showing a lot more plays than the one you state. 

I am showing...

Dallas [a]Toront[a]Detroit[a]Edmonton [a]Pittsburgh[a]New York Islanders[a]

Dallas B
Toronto B

Are these correct?  I just want to be sure I have everything correct and understand the system correctly.

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#24
Posted: 10/31/2009 3:53:30 AM

Isn't Ottawa a game c tomorrow?

10/29/09 @ TB L 2-5 L 106 O 5.5
10/28/09 @ FLA W 4-3 W -130 O 5.5
10/24/09 BOS L 3-4 (SO) L -115 O 5.5
10/22/09 NAS L 5-6 (OT) L -213 O 5.5

Series 1 starting on 10/22/09 lost, 3 overs in a row... than because 10/24/09 went to SO isn't it supposed to re-start another 3 game chase which would be heading into game C chasing the under?

PLZ correct me if im wrong.

GMSI

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#25
Posted: 10/31/2009 10:18:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GMSI:

Isn't Ottawa a game c tomorrow?

10/29/09 @ TB L 2-5 L 106 O 5.5
10/28/09 @ FLA W 4-3 W -130 O 5.5
10/24/09 BOS L 3-4 (SO) L -115 O 5.5
10/22/09 NAS L 5-6 (OT) L -213 O 5.5

Series 1 starting on 10/22/09 lost, 3 overs in a row... than because 10/24/09 went to SO isn't it supposed to re-start another 3 game chase which would be heading into game C chasing the under?

PLZ correct me if im wrong.

GMSI

we are not chasing 3 Total losses in a row...

please re-read the very first intro...

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