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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Top Rated Program Plays
TheThinker send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
TheThinker
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#1
Posted: 10/6/2009 9:05:35 AM
Ok guys, ive made a couple of attempts at this, over the 2 months that ive been at covers but i really need to document my programs plays over an extended period of time (win or lose). I make no "bones" about this, the program has not been documented as of yet... Ive made less than 50 real money bets using it. Ive spent the better part of the last few months working on it. I need to use this thread for documentation and that is either win or lose.
 
I am only going to be using the highest rated plays, moneylines, sides or totals. I suggest no one tail these plays. As i said i have made a few burnt runs in posting but this time i am taking all the pressure off myself. I have made a few changes in the format.
 
1. No plays over (-1.30 Juice) ever.
2. Flat bet all the plays for 2 units only (2% of bankroll)
3. all plays must rate over 60% in order to be a play
 
I guarantee no % of winners, this thread is going to be like a working office for me. Im giving myself until the end of the year to see if this business is for me. I am not a capper and cannot be one, dont have the time or ability or desire. I am a numbers man and will live or die with this computer program. I honestly think a true mathematical computer program can win in the long run, over peoples opinion.
 
Ill post the plays for tuesday shortly, i will be here daily, as this is something that i must do and is the only plays on the internet that i will be posting them. I am not a tout in training or scammer, in fact i do not recommend that anyone follow these, at the moment. If this thing works, there will be enough money to be made. I will not make the final call for some time, as i need a large sample of real money plays...
 
GW
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#2
Posted: 10/6/2009 9:51:08 AM
ok, just got through running the mlb game and the college football game. the total is off the board for some reason in the game between troy and mtsu.
 
here is what the program said.
 
the edge clearly lies to Minnesota in their game today with the tigers, however the line of (-1.65) cannot be played, as my cutoff is now (-1.30) and this clearly exceeds that, taking away the value. this left me with the choice of taking Minnesota on the (-1.5 line) in which clearly the win % did not reach 60%.. the choice of taking an adjusted (-1 line) is a possibility and does offer the 2nd best betting opportunity in this game. however the best play is a simple play to the Over in this one.
 
play for tuesday oct 6
 
1. Tigers Over 8.5 (-1.10) 2.20 units to win 2.00 units
porcello/baker must start. this game carried a nice and neat 61% winning rate.
 
if you play a team in this one, consider playing the twins on the adjusted (-1 line).
 
again, this is not betting advice, more of talk with myself, while analyzing the information.
 
there will be a few hockey selections but not many, until we get a few games in the books for each team.
 
back with complete card shortly.....
 
GW
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#3
Posted: 10/6/2009 11:52:36 AM
record for this thread: 0-0 (0.00 units)
 
plays for tuesday oct 6
 
1. tigers Over 8.5 (-1.10)
 
2. Minn Wild (-1.20)
 
3. MTSU Over 55 (-1.10)
 
 
listed pitchers for baseball, all 2 unit plays......
 
GW
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#4
Posted: 10/6/2009 12:12:40 PM
Best of Luck Buddy
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#5
Posted: 10/6/2009 9:09:20 PM
could you give us some info on how your plays are picked? what info is put into the program to determine a play? A response is greatly appreciated
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Posted: 10/7/2009 9:15:35 AM
let me start out this, with a little background.
 
i am a computer programmer, have been for the last 15yrs or so... last fall during the economic downturn, myself like many others, had their job put in jeopardy. i survived but it taught me that i couldnt rely on a company for my livelihood and i was sick of the "9 to 5" grind anyway.
 
i had always been interested in the markets (stock market and commodity markets) so i began to work on a program to mechanically trade the markets. it turns out that i came up with something that has worked extremely well, in trading the SP 500 Index... it took months but i now have it running automatically. it has generated 44 trades since about May 1, with a profit of over 25k for that time period....
 
once i had this finished and running, i began to think of ways to beat the sports betting market, as i had always been interested in sports but for me its much more than that, its being able to beat the game, that is what interests me. i knew that i was not going going to be a capper (didnt have the desire or hours to put into that), i was not going to be a line chaser...... now im not saying those ways cant win, im saying they are not for me.
 
in my quest, i came upon this site and have found much useful information... its much the same info that you probably use... its how you use it that is important and the weight that you put on the individual stats and categories....
 
i thought it would be fun to post the plays the program produced and maybe talk a little with a few other bettors...
 
what i have learned is that.....
 
1. i cant lay the heavy juice... in the long run, this will beat me.
2. i cant bet every game on the board...
3. i need to flat bet, only raising bets, as the bankroll increases.
 
i really was not doing these things, when i started this, a couple of months ago.
 
i know this didnt answer your question but i wont go into laying out the program... mainly for a couple of reasons..
 
1. i have no idea if this will work in the long run but i do know that if i can only hit 56% or so, against a (-1.10 line or better), that i can make alot of money in this business... my goal is 57.4% but that is just a goal, i have no idea if those results will play out.... the sports betting market, is much more random than the sp 500 market and that surprised me...
 
2. why i would i want to lay out, exactly what im doing.... if i did that, someone could run with the plays if they were a success and sell them or whatever and that would not benefit me, in the least.. im speaking hypothetically now, so do not be offended...
 
a few other things that i can tell you.... college sports will be far weaker than professional sports (especially totals), in fact i am thinking of dropping college totals altogether... the turn over rate for players is too great (from season to season) and the level of competition played is not equal (not even close).... it is much more equal in professional sports...
 
also i am a HUGE believer in flat betting... i do not want to live or die on any one game.... i could go much more into this but i wont. only a true professional (and im not) could know his exact edge in a game but if they did really know this, why would they bet the lesser games.. why not just bet the higher games for more money. this topic could be aruged endlessly but not by me...
 
 
sorry for rambling but let me end by saying... i will keep posting the plays daily (in this thread) WIN or LOSE.... i would not suggest following now but keep an eye on it and if you do follow, flat bet (start small and if bankroll grows, then increase bet amount).....
 
phatpherriola: ask me the question again, when 100 plays are posted.... we will see how it looks then..
 
back for wednesdays plays soon.
 
GW
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#7
Posted: 10/7/2009 9:37:00 AM
Record for thread: 2-1 (+1.80 units)
 
plays for wednesday oct 7
 
4. rockies Over 8 (-1.15) betjam (listed pitchers) 2 units
63.55% win rate
 
5. cardinals (-1.30) ML (betjam) (listed pitchers) 2 units
65.00% chance of winning
 
6. Penguins Under 6 goals (-1.20) greek 2 units
62.25% chance of going Under
 
todays card was pretty cut and dried, as far as plays go... the program does like the rockies chances of winning today, so dog bettors be on the look out for a rockies win. it also like the yankee game Under 9.5 but it did not reach 60%... no opinion on the dodger total, tough to play Under 7 but cant play it Over...
 
GW
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Posted: 10/7/2009 10:08:17 AM
FOR FUN: projected series winners..
 
1. Yanks (87%) (juice way too high)
2. redsox (52%) (could be a great series)
3. cards (60%) (probably a good bet)
4. rockies (54%) (good value play)
 
GW
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#9
Posted: 10/7/2009 12:49:45 PM
thanks for the explanation thinker, i was just wondering what stats you were feeding your program thats all and if it was similar to sports_networks base run formula. i have no intention to sell your picks or program or anything. if you would like you could pm with a response thanks
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#10
Posted: 10/7/2009 10:56:38 PM
Best of luck with this. I hope you do well.
 
 
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#11
Posted: 10/8/2009 1:07:06 AM
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Posted: 10/8/2009 8:53:24 AM
thanks guys, its a working project, as im still very new to sports wagering (in general)...
 
record for thread: 3-3 (-1.10 units)
 
im trying to look into ways to work more with the probability factor, as it relates to the games or even a series of games... i think it can significantly increase the win rate (% wise)....
 
this is a working office, back later with thursdays plays.
 
GW
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Posted: 10/8/2009 9:59:14 AM
just bear with me for a few days... im trying to adjust the probability factor, with the selections and apply it to a (2-3 game format).... the units will now vary..... as i said, this is a work in progress and this is my office..
 
Record for thread: 3-3 (-1.10 units)
 
plays for thursday oct 8
 
7. boston bruins (-1.60)
 
8. buffalo sabres (-1.60) very high rated play
 
9. nash preds (no line yet)
 
10. sj sharks (-1.70)
 
11. la kings (-1.20)
 
12. rockies (+1.50)
 
13. angels (+1.00)
 
14. cards (no line yet)
 
all 8 plays for 1 unit only.....  i had to change my 2 rules but it was going to be necessary... i also am playing these for a very small amount of real money...
 
i would be glad to discuss any of the selections, if there is ever a question... otherwise, i will just post the plays... use closing line at covers for the 2 non posted lines for record keeping..
 
if you have looked at this thread at all, keep an eye on it, i wouldnt advise following but i am working on a few things and am trying my best to tie them together... the end product could be quite remarkable...  as i said, this is my working  office and the thread record will run infinitely (no altering it)....
 
GW
 
 
 
 
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Posted: 10/9/2009 8:58:14 AM
coming off a nice (6-2) day on thursday and without the collapse by the cards, it would have been (7-1)...
 
Record for thread: 9-5 (+2.70 units)
 
plays for friday oct 9
 
15. dallas stars (+1.40) 1 unit
 
16. twins +1.5 runs (+1.30) 1 unit
 
nothing else for friday....
 
in this thread, i am really focusing on probability..... hope i didnt mislead anyone about the units.... it should simply be a pretty standard (1-5 units) per selection, based on strength of play and probability of play winning..
 
GW
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#15
Posted: 10/10/2009 1:41:34 AM
good job thinker

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Posted: 10/10/2009 10:27:46 AM
thanks yungsage, keep checking the thread.... things are coming together... back with the plays for saturday soon..
 
GW
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Posted: 10/10/2009 10:48:51 AM
yesterday 2-0
 
 
Record for thread: 11-5 (+5.40 units) (69%)
 
plays for saturday oct 10
 
17. stl cards (-1.60) 1 unit listed pitchers
 
18. flyers (-1.45) 1 unit OT included
 
19. blues (-1.40) 1 unit OT included
 
20. chi blackhawks (-1.85) 1 unit OT included
 
21. Georgia Bulldogs (+1.05) ML 1 unit
 
 
that is all for the MLB playoffs today and the NHL.... i am not finished with the NCAAF card...
 
as i said, im just using a standard (1-5 unit) system for the wagers and what i am doing is something very different, than anything else ive seen... its not a chase system, as their doomed to failure at some point.... it is a system based in probability but you also have to look at the Juice being laid and try to keep that in check.
 
still running the college games, check back for any updates... as is have also said, "keep an eye on this thread" you could be amazed at what you may see..
 
GW
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#18
Posted: 10/10/2009 11:13:24 AM
adding 2 more plays for saturday oct 10
 
22. alabama (-1.90) ML for 1 unit
 
23. georgia tech +3 (-1.20) for 1 unit
 
 
that is possibly all the card, however there is a chance that the georgia tech play will be upgraded to a 2 unit play... if so, ill add it later today, still looking at a couple of things with it... 
 
GW
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#19
Posted: 10/10/2009 11:57:19 AM
nice work...thanks for sharing
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Posted: 10/10/2009 12:00:10 PM
thanks Jimmy, i do not want to jinx myself but check on this thread from time to time.... what im working with is really unique and a little hard to explain but i am really liking what i am seeing, again i dont want to jinx myself....
 
GW
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#21
Posted: 10/10/2009 5:12:54 PM
no further additions for saturday, back for sundays action....
 
GW
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#22
Posted: 10/11/2009 10:07:24 AM
saturday: 3-4 (-2.45 units)
really tough loss on the flyers yesterday..
 
moving on to sunday..
 
Record for thread: 14-9 (+2.95 units) (61%)
 
plays for sunday oct 11
 
24. angels (+1.30) 1 unit
 
25. carolina panthers -3 (-1.30) 2 units (strong play at this number)
 
26. ny rangers (-1.35) 3 units (very strong play)
 
27. patriots -3 (-1.10) 1 unit
 
that is all for the moment,,,,,, there is a chance that the patriot play will be upgraded to a 2 unit play and ill have at least one night time play...
 
back later
 
GW
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#23
Posted: 10/11/2009 11:37:57 AM
 Bro -- Good luck ..
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#24
Posted: 10/11/2009 11:51:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheThinker:

saturday: 3-4 (-2.45 units)
really tough loss on the flyers yesterday..
 
moving on to sunday..
 
Record for thread: 14-9 (+2.95 units) (61%)
 
plays for sunday oct 11
 
26. ny rangers (-1.35) 3 units (very strong play)
 
GW


How does your computer program handle backup goaltenders. Does the Rangers pick still remain a very strong play with backup Goalie Steve Valiquette between the pipes today?


Best of Luck, I like 'em all except the Halos. I think Boston gets it done, it should be a great game!
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#25
Posted: 10/11/2009 1:46:11 PM
Best of luck I will follow this thread and I'll pick the STARS before the computor does . Thanks for sharring ur SYSTEM keep up the good work
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