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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: JM NFL System
nolemonasses send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#76
Posted: 10/28/2009 1:51:35 PM

On3, it was implied ny the record from last year, but will you be playing the ML on all faves taht come up?

I think I might tail this. I like this better than the JM system, b/c you are not betting and chasing as many crappy teams with your filter.

I wonder what the long term record going back 5-10 years would be? Wish I had the time this week...

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#77
Posted: 10/28/2009 9:27:22 PM
, on3
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#78
Posted: 10/29/2009 10:50:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nolemonasses:

On3, it was implied ny the record from last year, but will you be playing the ML on all faves taht come up?

I think I might tail this. I like this better than the JM system, b/c you are not betting and chasing as many crappy teams with your filter.

I wonder what the long term record going back 5-10 years would be? Wish I had the time this week...



that's exactly why i like it, because you bet on good teams instead of the bottom feeders. but anything other than winning on the A bet with the modified falls under the regular system. you end up getting 6-7 more plays/year this way.

i wish there were more opportunities to bet the modified, but the damn thing only came up 10 times last year, the JM system has about 40-60 plays.

so far the JM system has done well. tenn is just a mess, but other than that its been pretty low stress.
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#79
Posted: 10/29/2009 10:53:03 AM
and yes, i will be playing the ML on most of the plays. but for example, chicago is currently at -700, no way im laying $350 (7units) to win $50 (1unit). i will ML parlay with some other teams, maybe other sports, but i will play chicago at the number for kickoff for a .5 unit.

for the ny giants, im playing whatever the ML will be, bet to win 1 unit.
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#80
Posted: 10/31/2009 3:01:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by on3:

easy win with the Jets today.

Week 8 plays:
Tennessee

in other news, I want to clarify what I was saying earlier about finding opportunities that provide more plays. this is my OWN system that i took a look at and saw an opportunity, not JM's. I REPEAT, THIS IS MY OWN SYSTEM, NOT JM's. here are the parameters:

modified system:
team loses 2 SU and ATS and has a .500 record or better AFTER the 2 losses. you then start a 3 game chase. currently, the system only allows plays after a team loses 3 SU and ATS.

modified system plays for current year:
ny jets (won on modified B bet -- original system A bet), balt (won on modified A bet), SD (won on modified A bet)

i back tested the modified plays for last year and it went 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS. here are the results for last year:

2008        bet   date       opponent    SU  ATS
ny jets       A    14-Dec     buffalo       W    L
buffalo       C    23-Nov    kc              W    W
balt            A    19-Oct     miami        W    W
denver       B    6-Nov      clev           W    W
cardinals    A    5-Oct       buffalo      W    W
green bay  B    12-Oct     seattle       W    W
chicago      A    23-Nov    st louis       W    W
washing     A    23-Nov    seattle        W    P
dallas         A    26-Oct     tampa        W    W
philly          B    27-Nov    arizona       W    W

modified system plays for Week 8 are:
ny giants
chicago bears


any thoughts???

Are NY giants and Chicago bears going to be a play?
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#81
Posted: 10/31/2009 3:03:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ASSPHALTCOWGIRL:


Are NY giants and Chicago bears going to be a play?

 both will be bet A right?
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JSqd25
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#82
Posted: 10/31/2009 8:02:24 PM

Only JM System play,

Tenn [C]

 

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#83
Posted: 10/31/2009 9:52:50 PM
So what do I bet Tennessee on tomorrow? Do I buy any points?
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#84
Posted: 11/1/2009 1:37:02 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BigGameBG:

So what do I bet Tennessee on tomorrow? Do I buy any points?

No,

Tenn ML

Best of Luck

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#85
Posted: 11/1/2009 12:08:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ASSPHALTCOWGIRL:


 both will be bet A right?


i will be playing chicago and the ny giants tomorrow, both on ML as a modified system play.
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#86
Posted: 11/1/2009 3:00:03 PM
Likewise Puppet M
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#87
Posted: 11/1/2009 6:50:06 PM
Tennesse won.  This system has been impressive this year.  11-0 with 9 of the wins coming on the "A" game. 
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#88
Posted: 11/1/2009 9:00:49 PM
solid win today with the Titans. also picked up a win SU and ATS for the Bears with my modified system. the Giants lost today, but now they will fall under the JM system too next week.

week 9 plays:
NY Giants
Tampa Bay

week 10 potentials:
Detroit
Washington

week 11 potentials:
Cleveland

modified system plays for week 9:
NY Giants (B bet)
Atlanta Falcons (potential)

modified system plays for week 10 potentials:
Green Bay
Arizona
Denver
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#89
Posted: 11/1/2009 9:20:12 PM
Is there a thread that explains the a,b,c bets that I can read so i dont have to flood u guys with a ton of questions?
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#90
Posted: 11/1/2009 10:27:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigPod:

Is there a thread that explains the a,b,c bets that I can read so i dont have to flood u guys with a ton of questions?


This is the "chase" system you said you didn't understand on the other thread.  That is, you are betting that a certain team will win at least one of its next three games.  So your A bet is to win $X.  If you win, you're finished with that team for this series.  If your A bet loses, the next game you bet on your team with your B bet to win back your A bet losses plus what you would have won had your A bet won.  If your B bet wins, you are finished with this series.  If your B bet loses you bet on your team to win the next game--the C bet.  You bet enough on the C bet to win back your losses on you losing A bet and B bet plus enough to win what you were trying to win on your A bet.  If your C bet wins, you win.  If your C bet loses, your just lost a ton of money.

The above describes a 3-game chase.  There are 2-game chases, 4-game chases, etc., etc.  A chase system means that you are prepared to keep pounding a set number of games until it wins, and wins what you wanted to win plus win back your loses if your first game loses.  This form of money management is commonly referred to as the Nightengale system.   Many on this board do not care for the potential loss an unsuccessful C bet would bring, so a different money management system is used call Labroche (spelling).  The chase system is still used-you're betting that a certain team will win one of its next 2, 3, 4, etc games (depending) on what your system calls for, but the attempt to recover lost money is spread over several games instead of trying to recoup all of your losses on the next game.
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#91
Posted: 11/2/2009 10:39:36 AM
for this system, are we chasing the spread or the ML or does it depend on the each game individually?
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#92
Posted: 11/2/2009 1:08:13 PM

Jeff_Kent

Thanks for the excellent explanation for those of us new to the whole concept.  Appreciate the knowledge.

J

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#93
Posted: 11/2/2009 1:15:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rm2673:

for this system, are we chasing the spread or the ML or does it depend on the each game individually?

Morrison's New NFL system revealed!
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#94
Posted: 11/2/2009 9:48:20 PM
I don't know if anybody is doing the same thing, but I always buy down to below 3 whenever a system pick is -3 to -4.  It will backfire occasionally.  However, I was able to get decent odds on TEN -2.5 yesterday rather than taking the ML -170.  NFL games are typically decided by 3 or more so I look at -2.5 as a synthetic money line wager with the exception of a rare 1 or 2 point victory.  I bet a lot of teasers with the object of moving the line below 3 as well.  As I said, I view these as synthetic money line wagers and I often make small hedge bet the other way after hitting the first leg.

Also, I've back-tested the Morrison NFL system 10 years.  There were 9 losses in the past 10 years.  There have been no losses since 2005.  I think this is statement to the parity that exists in today's NFL.  I am anxious to make large plays on the upcoming NY Giants system pick.  I have great confidence that the Giants will not lose 6 SU and ATS.

Any comments or criticism is welcome.  
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#95
Posted: 11/6/2009 1:04:45 AM
Week 9 plays:

NY Giants ML
Tampa Bay +10 or +10.5

I was hoping Atlanta wouldnt cover on Monday night so they would be a play under the modified system, but they covered by 3. Their Week 9 ML price is -500, may not be a bad option for people to consider.

GL everyone

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#96
Posted: 11/8/2009 9:27:38 PM
nice win today with Tampa winning outright, i wish i laid some ML action on them.

System so far: 12-0

Week 10 plays:
Detroit +17 (buy up)
Washington (waiting on line)

Week 10 modified system:
Green Bay

Week 11 plays:
NY Giants (B bet)
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#97
Posted: 11/9/2009 12:37:27 AM
what is the modified system that puts green bay on for week 10?
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#98
Posted: 11/9/2009 10:38:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rm2673:

what is the modified system that puts green bay on for week 10?


You know when I first started to read these treads not so long ago I saw a lot of people ask questions like that. At the time it did not bother me, but after seeing time and time again of people refusing to read an entire thread and ask stupid questions like that it really starts to annoy me. I know I could have taken this time to re-explain to you why, but if I did that you would only ask another stupid question that has be explained. PLEASE read the thread from start to finish I promise you that you will find the answer that you looking for. on3 has explained in great detail.
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#99
Posted: 11/9/2009 1:13:54 PM
kevin2565 
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#100
Posted: 11/9/2009 2:46:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kevin2565:



You know when I first started to read these treads not so long ago I saw a lot of people ask questions like that. At the time it did not bother me, but after seeing time and time again of people refusing to read an entire thread and ask stupid questions like that it really starts to annoy me. I know I could have taken this time to re-explain to you why, but if I did that you would only ask another stupid question that has be explained. PLEASE read the thread from start to finish I promise you that you will find the answer that you looking for. on3 has explained in great detail.

what if i were illiterate? then you rant for nothing. luckily thats not the case lol
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